TC or not TC

I did wet myself, especially when GFS also has it retrograding back to the west :o

But as the other model updates came to hand I was bought back to the real world.

We wait and see..

It's looking like 'not TC' at the moment Don. 'Take arms against a sea of troubles'

Actually, the less vertical development the better.
Then it might not get steered to the SE so quickly by the weakening sub-tropical ridge and uppers.

I hear ya Steve. Here's a question for ya though. If it goes extra-tropical as it tracks southwards, what will influence it's steering then?

Edit: Just did some reading and it appears that extra-tropical systems are influenced (steering) by similar upper systems.

Also, I guess the title of this thread didn't really align with my first question. I couldn't give 2 hoots if it's classified as a TC or not. I was just wanting it to do as the 00z GFS run was progging last night (similar to Steve's thinking) and get the fetch working on an active sea state by the system regressing westwards (or at least southwestwards).

Let's hope the EC/GFS models come to fruition mid this week as it could deliver some very nice lines out of the east next weekend if it does!!!

Last night the models had the isobars in a beautiful procession, from Tues till Sat they were lined up perfectly. This morning they've broken down somewhat. Still showing the depression out near New Cal though, just not the flow of isobars back toward the coast.

Guess you'll still get swell Don, perhaps a foot or two smaller than forecast and a lot more inconsistent.

Yeah GFs has toned it down somewhat today Stu, which is a real shame, but we should still see at least 3-4ft (inconsistent) from this puppy come Sunday now by the looks of it. Just have to avoid the E/NE winds now!!!