Tasman Low Mid Next Week (20 July)

Wildly divergent. Pinch of salt at this stage.

But there's something a-happening.

Some better looking convergence in the charts now, although I do note GFS still unlikely to produce much swell for us SE Qlders. :(

Looks like there's something trying to happen in the longer term, Don - but geez it pales into insignificance compared to the current week+ of southerly swell we're still basking in!

but geez it pales into insignificance compared to the current week+ of southerly swell we're still basking in!

By: "thermalben"

Basking south of Byron. North of Byron we've been crying as per usual!!!

Also Ben, I wouldn't necessarily be thinking the current EC charts are paling into insignificance?

It's all relative Don. Ordinarily, yep - EC looks very fruity. But after the last week or so down here - meh :D

And it's all relative to where you're situated on the east coast too Ben. North of Byron sucks balls this time of year.

I see EC has backflipped considerably in it's latest run and in fact almost reverting back to the GFS charts from yesterday?? :(

Oh well, at least with a low down south, it will mean offshore winds for when the E'ly groundswell arrives from the small low to the NE of NZ.

anyone noticed how high up the coast the second low is on the BoM current mslp chart? Could this cause the closed low to form maybe slightly higher than forecast?

I believe the bomb low is due to the pool of cold air moving from land offshore over the warmer waters of the Tasman Sea tomorrow, combining with the current small low shown in the current MSLP as it tracks southwards.

The current weatherzone chart shows the pool of cold air over the land mass quite well.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc…

Geezus, even I'm getting excited by this Tasman low!!!

By my reckoning this low will qualify as the seasons first proper ECL.

The initial surface low feature shows up nicely on the latest ASCAT.

And is probably slightly higher(in latitude) than weather models indicated.

I've got some big boards ready to go.

Yeah, this one's lining up to be a real doozy. Shame about the winds around here though, it's gonna get quite blowy.

I've got some big boards ready to go.

By: "freeride76"

And a jet ski Steve?? The close proximity of this storm to the mainland will mean it's a very consistent swell, hence rock offs will be very interesting indeed!!!

We eschew the use of jet-skis Don.

I'm thinking of paddling out in the corner of a beach and drifting a few miles down the coast.

While taking note of Ben's comments about the previous swell event from the south, this thing appears to be packing some serious punch, and all of it directed straight at the coast.

I expect there won't be many places to surf it even if you are capable, although I understand the Balmoral crew will be on it, with their mals and stand up paddle boards. They are currently in their respective garages practicing their hooting and a hollerin'. Maybe if I was a free man I would venture down to a different (not Sydney Harbour) inner bay break that has an uncanny resemblance to angourie when it is working.

That will be two outstanding swell event this winter just in terms of sheer energy hitting our coastline. No question though, last week's long lines will almost certainly be more surfable than what this puts up, but I'm expecting some spectacularly sized waves.

For Sydney you mean B and F.

There will be quite a few spots on the NSW coastline handling this swell.

there seems to be quite a lot of room to move with the lows center and could really take on a completely different shape and intensity to whats currently modeled.

EDIT: the cold pool extends quite far up into the atmosphere too. The mid level low is showing up on the 300hPa streamlines which is normally a steering layer for cold pools isnt it?

Don't think there's too much disagreement or room to move in the models from now on Poncho.

Maybe a bit of wishful thinking?

hey Craig, nah im not dismissing the event at all, just meaning the final position of the centre. Look at the broad area the models have the central pressure over and its depth.

EDIT: This could be quite important to how much size QLD see's and how quickly it see's it.

Don't think there's too much disagreement or room to move in the models from now on Poncho.

Maybe a bit of wishful thinking?

By: "craig"

Lol, wishful thinking as in, my camera is STILL with F&%Kin Canon, six weeks later and they haven't even started repairing it yet!!!!

Steve, just a reference to how spectacularly onshore it will be for what seems like most of the swell event.

You may get some sou-westers up there to open up some spots, but it may not be for long and it will be pretty direct on to the coast for most of the time.

I'm sure there are places here that will handle it, but gale force onshores are hard to hide from wherever you are.

Let me know how it goes up there anyway.

Looks like GFS and ACCESS G are divided what happens following this even too. Either way, looks like more swell to come. GFS has something dropping down out of the tropics with a high building over Vicco. ACCESS G has a more poleward scenario with another round of south swell with a very long fetch.

Storm looks too close in current 4cast - winds?

A meso-scale low (a very intense and small low within the broader scale feature) moved through the Sydney region early this morning with winds at Wattamolla gusting to 61kts (113km/h)!!

This low wrapped around the bottom of the broader scale Tasman Low and into the Sydney region at such a speed that the system was moving at a similar speed to the swell it was creating resulting in a 'captured fecth' scenario.

Under these scenarios wave growth is greatly amplified and one look at the current Sydney Wave Buoy observations shows this with Significant Wave Heights jumping to 6m, with Maximum Wave Heights peaking just short of 12 metres!!

Incredible!

Yes I saw that this morning too Craig (the wave buoy readings that is). Impressive stuff. Was surprised that some reports only came in at 3-4ft given those readings!!!

Yeah I'm very surprised as well with the reports, but they're all in agreement ranging between 3-5ft or so :o

tomorrow should be the day for SEQ by the looks of the BoM chart. How big??? 4-5ft on the open beaches?

Feck I hate S'ly swells!!! Sweep was out of control this morning....fecking ridiculous!!! Spent more time walking back on the beach than I did surfing.

Nice pics Craig. By the look of one of them you were virtually out the front gate. Literally within 200 yards of my place.

I was probably at a novelty break down the road. Could have surfed it but the poo factor might have been off the charts. :-)