Roaring Forties moving south - impact on swells to Southern Aus?

leckiep started the topic in Monday, 12 May 2014 at 02:52 pm

Hey weather-types,

Came across this article today:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/roaring-forties-shift-sout…

What does it potentially mean for swells along Southern Australia?

Cheers

mitchvg Wednesday, 14 May 2014 at 12:53 pm new

Well they didn't specifically mention the orientation, so it could be good. Swell still being sent poleward, but less blown out surf...?
Also, 1000 years is a short time in climate change. So the data is not bad or wrong, but limited.

thermalben Wednesday, 14 May 2014 at 01:03 pm new

For the purposes of recreational surfing, I don't think it means anything at all.

Climate trends are really hard to equate to surf potential, because there are so many variables that come into play.

However the basis of this articles related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) of which there are short to medium term forecast possibilities for locations that have less erratic local variables. For example, Indo, the South Pacific and Central America.

leckiep Wednesday, 14 May 2014 at 07:00 pm new

Cheers!

southey Wednesday, 14 May 2014 at 11:09 pm new

Last time i heard of this research ( AGW related ) ,
they were saying that the roaring forties would retract Sth and also strengthen , or see far more Westerly component and less SW NW component ( ie less fronts reaching as far Nth ) .....

So i would say in that context it could be good for exposed spots that might see better conditions for longer in the Autumn- Winter and Winter - Spring transitions .

Mind you there's a lot of Hypothesis in there ! ( the research that is ) ....

mitchvg Thursday, 15 May 2014 at 09:06 am new

Yeah Southey, that's what had in mind. Except I wrote poleward, but meant equator-ward.