Brazil Rio Forecast
Yeah these systems are often very good for Brazil (as they are for most East Coasts).
Looks like a small cut-off low forming within a trough, before drifting slowly east away from the mainland. This should kick up a solid SE swell, but there'll also initially be some small southerly groundswell in the mix too (looks like the SE swell from the trough will peak through the 13th/14th).
Because Barra da Tijuca faces almost due south, it'll rake in all of the south swell but it should still pick up plenty of south-east energy too (although the islands of Ipanema and Sao Conrado will partially block this swell at the eastern end of the beach).
I reckon we'll see - local winds pending (they are a litle dicey) - punchy beachies between 4ft and maybe 6ft at the height of the swell. It's still towards the back half of the model runs though, so let's wait and see what happens. however conditions do look a little suss for the first few days of the waiting period as this system evolves.. it could be onshore for a little while.
Any idea on how those beach break banks will handle 4-6ft of mid range swell? If I recall from last year it was just close out city when it got sizey.
Oh and thanks for the detailed response on the forecast.
Not sure.. I don't know Brazil very well. As per all beachies it's dependent on a lot of factors so we're really going to have to wait and see.
donweather wrote:Any idea on how those beach break banks will handle 4-6ft of mid range swell? If I recall from last year it was just close out city when it got sizey. Oh and thanks for the detailed response on the forecast.
My recollection is that, wind permitting, Barra de Tijuca is pretty damn god. I can remember Wilko - last year? the year before that? - getting a roll in from a wave that capped outside and reformed into a beautiful big barrel. During that swell there were lots of waves that capped on an outside bank and reformed inside into wedges and peaks.
Hmmm, one model run update since my notes above were posted, and it's already tracked the coastal trough/low a little more quickly to the east (downgrading its size potential in the process). But this would result in better surface conditions. Ball park size about 4ft for now.
thermalben wrote:
Hmmm, one model run update since my notes above were posted, and it's already tracked the coastal trough/low a little more quickly to the east (downgrading its size potential in the process). But this would result in better surface conditions. Ball park size about 4ft for now.
Over hyped brazlillian storm???
i remember this site https://www.astrologyjunction.com/ use to do like brazilian scopes 4 weather nd things like that, doesn't do it any more but like that was 7yrs ago so watevez. Im just lookin out for a good wave so storms don't really scare me that much, i want them to come at me ahaha
I don't know much about this location but Tues 12th brazil time looks interesting based on current forecasts. Certainly out of character for the usual 2ft dribble this comp usually offers. Anyone care to comment on likely beach break surf heights?