First ECL of the season?

freeride76 started the topic in Monday, 17 May 2010 at 02:54 am

Models firming on something solid firing up over the weekend, based on a tropical infeed from Indonesia/PNG into an inland trough.
Thoughts?

heals Monday, 17 May 2010 at 03:21 am new

Not sure how you know it's from tropical infeed from indonesia but GFS seems to have been progging it for a few days now. The only differences being the date and latitude it forms at. I guess something is going to happen and it looks to be very dynamic. Good luck to the forecasters on this one.

freeride76 Monday, 17 May 2010 at 03:38 am new

An inland trough extending from northern Australia is dragging in tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean/Indonesia. Have a look at a Sat pic. Very obvious.
An upper trough is expected to move up from the bight this week.
Bammo.
As to what will happen (and where, more importantly)........we wait and see.

thermalben Monday, 17 May 2010 at 04:10 am new

Some pretty major changes across the models in the last couple of days. EC's been the most consistent (and plausible) of the lot - as per usual - however it's still early days.

verner Monday, 17 May 2010 at 05:16 am new

Will an ECL generally mean onshore winds for SEQLD?

freeride76 Monday, 17 May 2010 at 05:43 am new

depends where it forms...if the axis of the low is to the south of SE QLD then winds will tend more W to SW as it forms.

freeride76 Monday, 17 May 2010 at 09:05 pm new

strike that ...reverse it.
Models have gone right off the idea now.

donweather Tuesday, 18 May 2010 at 11:17 am new

Yup.