Victoria Forecast (issued Wednesday 15th January)

Best Days: Thursday morning exposed coasts, Friday morning east of Melbourne, Monday morning east of Melbourne

Recap

A fun easing SW groundswell was seen across both coasts yesterday under hot offshore winds ahead of a shallow change during the late afternoon.

Today the swell has backed off to a tiny 1ft across the Surf Coast, with inconsistent 2-3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under a light variable breeze. The swell should continue to ease during the day though as weak sea breezes develop.

This week (Jan 16 - 17)

The surf will become even smaller tomorrow, and only a slight up tick in size is expected across the Mornington Peninsula into Friday as a new long-range W/SW groundswell arrives.

Winds will be good tomorrow and offshore for exposed spots from the N/NE, while Friday morning will also be favourable with N'ly winds ahead of a late change.

This weekend onwards (Jan 18 onwards)

Friday afternoon's change will linger into Saturday with fresh S/SW winds expected across the state with a small building SW groundswell.

A peak in moderate sized SW groundswell is due Sunday generated by a deepening mid-latitude front intensifying as it enters polar latitudes (pictured right). The track of this system isn't as favourable as forecast on Monday and we'll probably see only a small to moderate SW groundswell result.

Winds will unfortunately continue to be onshore as the swell peaks Sunday and from the S/SE.

Slightly better E/SE winds are due Monday morning as the swell eases Monday favouring the Mornington Peninsula, while Tuesday will see a return to SW winds.

Longer term a medium sized SW groundswell is on the cards for Wednesday/Thursday next week but with E/SE winds. We'll review this on Friday though.