EDP Ericeira Pro
Praia Ribeira D'Ilhas
September 29 - Oct 5

Reflecting the stop-start nature of the Challenger Series, the tour opened with three events in two months and then no events for the following two months. CS competitors are now regrouping in Portugal to compete in the fourth event of the tour, the EDP Ericeira Pro, held at Praia Ribeira.

As they've assembled, all interest has been in the movement of Major Hurricane Gabrielle which formed in the central North Atlantic and is forecast to move east-northeast over the coming days. Gabrielle will go extratropical and reintensify as it impacts Europe's western shores, specifically southern Portugal where the storm is expected to make landfall.

Organisers will want to double check the guy ropes because on the weekend of the 27th and 28th, just as they're setting up, they can expect very strong winds from the south, quickly switching to the north as the low moves over the coast.

By winning the Burton Newcastle Pro, Jacob Willcox took an early lead in the Challenger Series and he remains in the top slot (WSL/Hannah Anderson)

By Monday the 29th - the opening day of the waiting period - Portugal should be in mop up mode with easing wind, clearing rain, and dropping swell. Contestants should be greeted by leftover, mid-period, 4-5 foot swell, with lingering northerly winds causing surface bump - though there's a chance of a north-east (which is side-offshore) land breeze in the morning.

On Tuesday, the same mid-period north-northwest swell will continue to fade from 3 foot+ in the morning - again with early north-east winds switching to north-west seabreeze as the day heats up.

There are no swells on the chart for the following two days, so they'll be padded out with small, background surf to 2 foot, occasionally 3 foot on the right tide, and a similar wind pattern - north-east early giving way to north-west.

There is a chance for a new west-northwest groundswell for Finals Day - which is October 5th. Currently, the leading global forecasting models are diverging a little regarding the track and intensity of Gabrielle off the Portuguese coast. This is also causing uncertainty with the strength and intensity of a secondary hurricane (Humberto) linked to the Finals Day swell.

The less reliable American version (GFS) has a stronger storm and larger swell, coming in earlier in the day on October 5th, while the more reliable European solution (ECMWF) has the swell smaller and building through the day. Local winds also vary so we’ll have to keep an eye on this swell generating system over the coming week.

Once Gabrielle passes we'll get a better idea of the surf outlook for Humberto.