It’s been an unusual summer for surf across the country.
While the heat is there, East Coast readers are more than aware of the extended run of poor surf while those in the southern states are counting their blessings as the Southern Ocean continues to fire.
This isn’t the norm.
South-east wind slop and the sound of cricket on the radio is what most Victorian’s and South Australian’s associate with summer, while prolonged flat spells and heat waves dominate the west.
South Australia making good this summer (Chris Lovell)
On the East Coast, Queensland and northern New South Wales can generally rely on prolonged easterly trade-swell events that provide weeks of persistent swell energy, with southern NSW also benefiting albeit with a little less size and consistency.
Alas it’s all been flipped on its head.
The typical surface pressure pattern seen through summer is one where high pressure dominates the mid-latitudes with a semi-permanent high setting up across the Indian Ocean and Great Australian Bight with another setting up in the vicinity of New Zealand’s North Island - see the chart below left.
This setup is thanks to the subtropical high pressure belt shifting south in response to increased tropical heating and lower pressure across our northern regions.
Under such a setup the Southern Ocean becomes more subdued as cold fronts and lows are effectively steered away and blocked from pushing close to the Australian mainland, while the ‘flat-topped-high’ setup across New Zealand produces persistent easterly trade-swell energy, ebbing and flowing with the deepening and weakening of embedded tropical depressions.
Instead, what we’ve seen this summer is the complete opposite, and while the reason is not yet known the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly analysis from the start of December up until now paints a clear picture of how unusual it is.
Rather than high pressure sitting where it should be, we’ve had lower pressure than normal across the Southern Ocean and directly east of New Zealand - see chart below right.
What our summer usually looks like (left) and the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly for December and early January (right) (NOAA)
This has created multiple days of large, pumping surf across Western Australia and great waves across South Australia with even the sheltered Mid Coast offering waves for weeks on end.
Victoria has been a little more hit and miss, yet the've had more than enough quality surf days owing to the lack of strong south-east winds.
Western Australia's deep water reefs roared to life multiple times through December (Swellnet surfcam screenshot)
This pattern left the East Coast in the doldrums with only two notable swells through December. Meanwhile, the New Year has got off to one of the worst starts in recent memory.
The cause, as touched on earlier, is so far unknown, but combine this with the very late cool signal across the equatorial Pacific and overall warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, and it appears that this summer will end up being an outlier.
Looking ahead and the Southern Ocean is again firing up with the Western Australian coast expected to see further large pulses of swell for the coming fortnight, while the Tasman Sea will also likely see an out of season low forming later next week.
While not the typical summer swell producer, it will be much welcomed across New South Wales, while Queensland will likely have to wait until February before the first proper trade-swell of the season arrives.
Weird times indeed.
Comments
Had a decent trip back to SA over the break. Better than normal and got good to very good waves down south, at Yorkes and on the mid.
I had my first ever trip to the Mid Coast. (I have previously passed everything for cactus) what a great surprise, some fantastic set-ups and really friendly crew.
Ha, how good. When there's swell and the reefs are all on it's quite a sight.
Absolutely perfect reef setups, some beautiful bowls. And crew that chat and take turns. Go figure :)
Great stuff OHV500.
Thanks for the update, I have been wondering what has been happening. I'm looking at the charts recognizing all the patterns but obviously I don't know the cause of why this is happening haha.
FWIW Craig and the forecast crew have donned their sleuth hats and are trying to solve the mystery.
Make shipping dirty again.
"A study led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has found that 'dirty' ship emissions – usually releasing sulphur aerosols into the Earth's atmosphere – actually help to produce a cooling effect on the planet, mitigating some of the global warming from greenhouse gases."
They're clutching at straws really, it doesn't explain why temperatures have risen so much faster than the models predict. I'm not usually a dooms-dayer but I think the coefficient is wrong in the equations for temp rise vs CO2 level. It's an estimate, and an error of 0.1 makes a big difference. A couple of scientific papers in the last decade have mentioned this but were largely ignored. I hope they're wrong
Thanks Craig...
Hope it is an outlier and Huey makes up for it come February!!
Look at that southerly wind anomaly over NZ North Island. SST here was 22C on 26/11, and 17-18C when we got back on Tuesday. Yikes!
And the anomaly is in no hurry to shift.
See the low that develops east of NZ tomorrow and lasts for the better part of a week.
MSLP forecast for Saturday:
Oh yay! More storm swell and relentless onshore. Truckloads of close generated swell and unfavorable winds really isn't fun after awhile. No summer and no good waves for some of us.
I really hope this changes soon.
Yep and on one day last week it got down to just over 16 degrees IB while you were away. Relentlessly windy too and combined with cold water i've been regularly getting cold in steamer. Coldest summer I can remember West coast NZ
I believe you. I'm getting by in a 2mm short arm, but only just.
I have never experienced a summer with as much southerly wind on the east coast of NZ as this one. Places that are usually in the high twenties, low thirties at this time of the year are struggling to make it to 15' There's still been waves, just not the summer weather to go with them.
Can’t even imagine it not being hot in summer
Wow!
Thanks Craig, love this content!
Would this explain warmer than normal water temps here in SA (mid and south coast)? My son's watch (not that I believe it) recorded water temp of 25c on the mid recently. This maybe an inflated number but it is the warmest I can recall here....not sure if anyone else agrees?
25 seems a bit too warm but it definitely was comfortable in boardies and a top most days down south etc (other than first thing in the morning). I reckon low 20s. Maybe a touch warmer on the mid.
According to an aquatics instructor at port noarlunga in mid december it was measured at 22c and only seems to have warmed a little since then. I also think this past winter was warmer than usual on the mid and putting it down to lack of rainfall?
Yeah latest observations inside the gulf along the coast are about normal. 21-22°C or so but could be warmer right close to shore. And it's also warmer up the gulf and inside Spencer Gulf.
The Victor region and further offshore, especially the Bonney Coast etc are all a bit warmer than normal thanks to the lack of upwelling south-easterlies.
Here's the observations temperatures, and then anomaly below it..
Cheers Craig....yeah the less than normal SE flow would explain a lot. Be interesting to see how late summer into Autumn progresses. Thanks
Long time reader 1st time commenter, love these articles & can’t wait for the analysis / theories.
For WA, definitely more summer waves than I can remember, seems like less west coast troughs this year which would feed the High in the Bight. Low pressure forming off NW coast then tracking West not East, what is the Indian Ocean Dipole doing?
7 day Indian Ocean model looks like mid-winter with multiple big L-pressure systems, storm track is further south but plenty of waves for Indo / WA / SA ahead.
That onion off the E coast of NZ has been a common theme these past few months. A blocking low where a blocking high usually exists. Have the SST's been higher there than usual?
There is a significant warmer than normal pool sitting just east of them which could be aiding things, but it's only really got that warm since about Christmas..
Wairarapa, the SE coast of the North Island has been unusually warm for about 2 years now I think
Anomalously warm water in the Tasman/NZ corridor where high pressure should be sitting has been my working hypothesis.
There's just not enough significant temperate gradient between the West Pac warm pool and Tasman/NZ corridor for air masses to form significant pressure gradients.
It’s it just me or does NZ seem the major beneficiary of all or any atmospheric synoptics, systems or patterns? Seems like they have had the run of runs over the last few years.. strongly considering moving to the land of the long white cloud (and swell lines)
Probably been geographically long over wide helps too?
What ya think?
Yeah, being a long island and the ability to easily jump coasts is favourable. But still, it can be quite a drive between quality spots from the west coast to east coast. Paging IB.
At your service!
Yes, mostly endless Southern Ocean swell for the west coast, but fickle in the east. Also, only a few sheltered spots in the west (including where I am).
NZ is definitely the land of the long windy drive; no coastal highways like Aus where you can just check spot after spot.
Condition update: underwhelming swell, 4-5C cold anomaly water, holiday crowds. I had much better waves in N NSW. But things usually revert to good-pumping
Can concur IB. Colder water than ever whole west coast and some very sloppy windswept conditions lately. I've done some hours though post Christmas with the crowds. I've just come over east this week looking for the mythical long range predicted north swell but it's still a myth. North swells on the east coast of NZ that are from Northern hemi storms may show up on modelling but are usually a hoax. East Coast water is also only 18 or 19 usually way over 20 by now. Lots of bronzy sharks around too in the bay of plenty. I better come back west tomorrow
Can see the anomalies here..
Wow that's a really interesting chart. It was only a few weeks ago media articles kept talking about a marine heatwave but nothing since and no mention locally how cold the water has been in media. Coldest water temp in summer that I can remember West coast north island
It’s interesting isn’t it PM
It’s all cylindric but you won’t hear a thing about that either
Hope ya getting a couple. So due for NZ sojourn it’s been too long like 5 or 6 years… 3 years before that and more boarding both those times.
Almost 20 years ago before that with a mate and the family. That was a great trip - fond memories chasing waves with a surf chauffeur (mum & dad)
It’s almost borderline disrespectful between trips
As can Tassie be.
NZ looks great when you look at the swell maps, there is always somewhere pumping - problem is it's quite often an 5 - 8 hour drive from region to region SE coast to the Naki then up to the NE coasts, by the time you get to the spot that's pumping you get a day or two of waves then need to drive back to the other coast , super fun waves but is so much harder to find quality points and barrels like in OZ - they are there just don't seem to be as consistent and there is almost always one thing not quite right with the sand, swell, wind etc etc to get those 8/10- 10/10 sessions.
3 words, helicopter / pilots license
I guess you also need a helicopter then
Geographically it makes a whole heap of sense
It's been alright as a summer here in Vic. Warm, humid and muggy. Reasonably consistent cycles of fronts going over, muggyness turns to northerlies with clean surf of good size, then gets cooler. Enough offshore days, but still quite a few SE days. I'd expect the Mornington side has been even better.
I thought you were at the mornington side vj ?
Don't tell me you are stuck down there in juc
? Say it ain't so .
Bird rock looking fun ?
The side closest to Margs LD
Here in SA for summer I normally forget about the boards and concentrate on the mountain biking but this summer has been exceptional with good waves down south and reasonable peelers on the mid for the frothers.
Even Day Street got some solid 4ft face waves with a magical bank that popped up delivering consistent righthanders a week or so ago.
Yorks would have been going off a few times too but didn't have the chance to get over there.
Enjoy it while its there south aussies - maybe we get a good winter as well or is that too much to wish for ??
Ahhh the good old Daystreet right. My bread and butter for many years growing up across the road from it. Good memories. Enjoy!
Gotten pretty small the last week here however weather wise, it's the best summer for weather on the Sth Coast in over 4 years. The last 4 years have been brutal howling ESE winds, but this summer is much more pleasant and like a proper summer, alot more light winds and warm water. Can handle the ocean going quiet for a bit in exchange for a bit of good summer weather.
Won't b long til she fires up again no doubt.
Wondering if all the anomalies occuring off the East coast are part of a bigger picture that includes all the massive swells in the North Pacific this year. As noted in the Kip Caddy interview. Thoughts?
Don't think so,
I'm no forecaster, northern pacific run of swell has come with the usual weather looks like a blocking high has set up over the PNW
With the jet setting up running north to south
Creating sant Ana winds
Causing all sorts of havoc on the west coast.
Been offshore and big every day this week.
Trend looks to continue as the trades set for Friday sat sun .
Blocking high usually sets up every Jan
Freezes all the mountains to iceblocks
Messes with the snow packs .
Our memories are short term though
As it was stormy and flat through 2 weeks in December.
Yeah thanks for that on the ground report and your feedback LD.
I wouldn't have a clue so would be cool to see what effect the equatorial systems are having over the bigger picture.
Super gnarly stuff going on in your neck of the woods. Be safe.
I've observed it but have no explanations SR- maybe Craig has something to add.
It feels more El Nino this summer on the Surf Coast rather than the La Nina which has been predicted. Quite dry generally, and it seems like more hot days than last summer. Some decent swell and a few offshore days as well. Probably more S and SW than SE which we cop a lot of in La Nina I thought. I am sure the Easterlies will come. The whole weather unpredictability thing seems to be getting scarier. How's those fires in California in winter.
Think it's actually a nuetral year, yes winds wreaking havoc on LA to SD
Weatherman did put out alerts before hand
Pretty standard weather further north
Let's talk about the jet stream though
Word for the day wind shear.
Looks like the jet push down hard on the basin.
Bloody great chat cheers all :)
Those wild fires on the west coast are ridic crazy. Wowzers ;(
Hard to see those images coming through. Drove the west coast over 3 weeks a few years back - while there was an outbreak around Big Sur (contained) this is just hard to fathom and take in
would be lost for words to experience it as I am sure many are :(
Safety paramount
Thank for the update Craig, I’ll clean the old wax off , make sure boards are good to go. It’s depressing looking at the sunny coast long range forecast,
Hopefully we get some swell April May start of winter has from memory been good.
at least its not raining, and the water is not poo brown like just before xmas, but yes I know no swell
Fascinating as always Craig thanks.
Don't know if or how it's connected but apparently the monsoon hasn't arrived in the NT and they have a drought and their driest summer so far. Major anomaly.
Yeah it has to be all linked, ie with the monsoon not pushing down property as of yet across northern Australia, the subtropical high pressure belt has no extra forcing from the north. Looks like a decent negative SAM event inbound mid month as well.
Interestingly however that places like Bali have had flooding rains mostly since the start of our summer. So the monsoon has arrived up there for sure.
Yep, it just hasn't pushed down across Australia. It's hanging up there, north-west of us and converging over Bali. Here's the precipitable water anomaly from December to now..
Thanks Craig. I assume the white area around NT indicates "average" wet weather between Dec to now? Doesn't seem to correlate with what others are saying above about no monsoon up there yet? And in fact the green area around Darwin would indicate higher than average yeah?
Good point, just checked and there's differing meanings between the Australian Monsoon onset, which is when the wind reversal is observed and around to the NW across northern Australia. They're still out of the south-east. https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=monsoon
While the northern rainfall onset looks to already be there across the majority of spots.. https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall-onset/#tabs=Observations
In that regard, the winds look to kick in within the next week.
How often does the monsoon NOT arrive?
I thought that was something that didn't fluctuate much at all?
The tropics have been expanding but this seems like a contraction
Zero cyclone action too
It never doesn't arrive, just the timing can be delayed or brought forward at times depending on other drivers.
I'd say the current late arrival looks to be linked to the abnormal summer peak of the cool water signal in the Pacific Ocean.
Stronger than normal trades have been keeping the MJO signal at bay, with it not allowed to progress past the Indian Ocean. Usually the drivers for La Niña, ie stronger than normal trades would be backing off by now so it could be somehow linked.
Flattest start to the year on NZ NE coast that I can remember, and water temps still stuck in the mid 19’s.
Been at my partner’s family bach in southern coromandel since the 29th and haven’t surfed once, usually can always get at least a longboard moving. Back to the Mount today.
Shoulda stayed in Vicco!!
Haha OS I've been mount last few days and yep can't even take a soft top out. Heading back west again today. Water is cold east sure but WC is even colder brrrrr
Isn't that huge low off the East coast supplying any surf?
Swell too E to get into Yendor's area, and mostly too S to benefit Only Sams.
But yeah, large SE swell for sure.
East coast NZ swell windows trip me out- seem really fickle and limited wrt swell direction.
Sounds like Tassie :)
But yes does sound complicated
I was sure you just rocked up and you scored
Maybe IB is throwning the scent of the trail
Putting some sauce on it so to speak
Great comments section all thought provoking and interesting as always
East cape blocks anything south of a true east direction in the Bay of Plenty/Coromandel.
This low is also too close and south at the moment to send any SE swell to the very top of the east coast (Northland).
True east coast (Gisborne to wairarapa) is huge 3m+ but howling SW.
So it's dead flat north of East Cape?
Yup, been knee-thigh high max from north cape to east cape since Christmas.
Yep as OS said. The east cape is such a block. South East swell sometimes clips the coromandel but the BOP generally is so sheltered from most swells south of east. Sometimes in an east swell you can get 4 foot whangamata and 2 foot mount. And mount and further east will pick up north and even north west windswells but they're rubbish but BOP surfers will take whatever they can get
True. And Coro guys will drive a whole day to surf average waves.
The difference between last summer and this is incredible. 2024 we had 5 very large swells in Jan-Feb, and I surfed in boardies and a jacket. This year I haven't had an OH wave for almost a month, and the water is 4-5C colder.
Negative SAM puts the storm track to the south? Leaving more 'space' for the monsoon to spread south?
How am I doing?
Very late Monsoon onset this year.
Latest on record is 25Jan.
There is some convection happening up there but it might take a strong MJO phase (end of Jan under current speeds) to really kick it off.
Average TC season predicted by BOM (4 TCs in Coral Sea).
6 in the South Pac.
Just read that all the planets will align on 25th Jan. Coincidence?
Maybe trigger some MJO and monsoon action, surely, to resume normal transmission ie get those sand bottomed points racked and stacked as per normal
Like this comment Standing… it’s all cylindric. Drivers within drivers but the larger driver is…. You know where it’s at #universeemoji
'Getting harder to believe the news, oh yeah!'
I'm lookin for clues.
Glockenspiel solo anyone?
https://theskylive.com/3dsolarsystem?objs=12p|c2023a3|13p|c2021s3&date=…;
Edit: it redirects to home view, just set the date to 25 Jan 2025.
That's solar system view for 25 Jan 2025. Looks like we'll be able to see four across the sky from our viewpoint but doesn't look like a classic alignment of planets with each other/sun.
The MJO triggers cyclones ?
Seems the MJO has broken down. How often does that happen
Yeah MJO brings increased convection, instability and aids cyclone formation. Not broken down, more so stuck, blocked but due to come around late month/early February.
Is it only anomolous in terms of the last 20years? What were early summers like in NSW/ Vic from the Late 80s - late 90s?
Good question, anomalous in regards to 1991-2020. So covers most of that period.
Great article. Has been great winds for Yorkes and the Mid, miserable at Victor (when is it not? haha). Missing those hot northerlies and a summer sesh down south though!
Stunning weather really in SE Qld, humidity lower than usual and light winds. Ocean invites us in other ways during these times.
Thanks Craigoes, insightful as always!
What is the difference between the pic on right and a the epic swell producing east coast low? Would the low pressure system need to be much closer to Aus? I assume where it is now, swell is blocked by NZ?
Thanks Dan!
Check this article here: https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2022/03/10/recapping-ou…
We want high pressure across the southern latitudes and low in the Coral Sea/northern Tasman.
The MSLP anomaly setup for summer 2021/22..
Legend, thanks mate!
Interesting Craig that you say this summer will be an outlier.
I wonder if this summer is more likely to be the beginning of either a new normal, or just one variant in a new abnormal.
As we see flooding and fire events with an increasing frequency and ocean temps that seem to be on the rise and not coming down perhaps the days of a routine expected pattern are well and truly over?
So Feb’s going to pump on the ec with all the sand build up and trade swell? Or is that wishful thinking….. rain is back the last week in central nsw so to me that’s a good sign that things are changing……from the early summer blues… November/ December are general the poorest surf months of the year for me personally
The East coast current & rain brings tropical species south.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthograph…
Fantastic write up Craig as per usual mate!
It's insane to think that my part of the GC has received over 130ml of rain since Friday night with more to come this week whilst the SAM is currently in a negative phase. These warm ocean temps off the EC are really changing things up from the norm!
Bob McDavit suggests it could be a La Nina Modoki, seems to make some sense of it.
Yep looks like it! Warm water in the far eastern Pacific with the cool anomaly sitting more west and towards the Date Line.
Where do you get info from Bob? He was the guru of nz metservice years ago ay? I remember talking to him on the phone once about an incoming swell to raglan years ago
Can sign up to his blog here. https://metbob.com/
Monsoon looks to be back later this week …
Yep.
It’s been the best summer in probably a decade in metro WA, consistent sea breezes and small days in-between swells have made our one wave pretty special. Old mates in the carpark recalling the time Cheyne Horan got a stand-up pit in the 80s tier good.
Hate to share a competitor but 4:35 above, pretty funny Koa Smith’s mental Pipe wave is the one after.
^ music sucks bad : P
nice stuff, cheers, Craig and all.
to Bnkref: no you didn't, it was small onshore with gross localism, sharky and crowded..
always feels sharky in SA...
Thanks for the information Craig.
Seems we are in uncharted territory. The models & maps are a guide.
South of S.America & Africa there apears to be a 10,000km swell coming towards West Oz, SA and Vico.... powered by 5 x Low pressure systems spinning around Antarctica.
https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,2025011506,-56.608,88.242,3…
I wouldnt want to be on a boat in the southern oceans ATM.
As MetBob says in his DISCLAIMER/ Forecast limitations:
"Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos."
"A forecast is just an idea from isobar patterns , and chaos causes the real world to unravel away from these. "
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https…-