Here at Swellnet, we are strong believers in the following train of thought: the most classic of East Coast swells come not from isolated Tropical Cyclones but the combination of a cyclone with a strong supporting high pressure ridge.

On the back of a relatively poor cyclone season earlier in the year, it's welcoming to see the first signs of tropical activity forming in the Fiji region.

But there is good news ahead. The much discussed Long Wave Trough (info here) is about to enter a strengthening phase in the Southern Ocean, and we're looking at two to three weeks of heavy swell activity for the southern states.

The Sydney buoy rose 9 metres in one hour

As such, we are now anticipating a large SW groundswell arriving next weekend, that could very well produce 8-10ft surf at Cloudbreak.

The ideal swell setup for Fiji usually originates from a passage of strong cold fronts extending from the Southern Ocean through the Tasman Sea. This often creates broad areas of south-westerly gales, which in turn generates long period south-westerly swells.

There'll be plenty of swell, but not from Bells' ideal direction.