Large S/SW groundswell for the south-east of the country

im pumped!

Just maybe the days predicted to be "epic" lead to unreal (and mostly unmet) expectations for most surfers.

Perhaps the swell isn't as big as predicted or the direction is slightly off or the tide is wrong or perhaps its the super super crowded conditions - everywhere.

No doubt good waves will be had by some but given the likely concentration of swell and people into maybe a dozen breaks on each coast what are the odds of you getting your fill of empty and perfect waves?

Good luck buddy.

No one has said it's gonna be epic, and with only a chance of W/NW winds at dawn around the Surf Coast early on Thursday, and to a lesser degree Friday, there will be only a brief period of OK conditions across the exposed reefs.

But the S/SW swell direction will mean that more protected spots will see more of the swell energy than usual.

I was just pointing out that there is a pretty impressive swell generating system developing and people maybe interested..

i like your style floyd, vicco is so damn crowded mid week when you've got to strap on your 4/3 an booties and deal with constant icecream headaches.

the wind is looking pretty shitty at this stage though, don't even know if i'll make it out. will be keen to see Craig's update on wed.

bom link agrees. all good https://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV20010.shtml

No one has said it's gonna be epic, and with only a chance of W/NW winds at dawn around the Surf Coast early on Thursday, and to a lesser degree Friday, there will be only a brief period of OK conditions across the exposed reefs.

But the S/SW swell direction will mean that more protected spots will see more of the swell energy than usual.

I was just pointing out that there is a pretty impressive swell generating system developing and people maybe interested..

By: "craig"

im very intrested!

Just maybe the days predicted to be "epic" lead to unreal (and mostly unmet) expectations for most surfers.

Perhaps the swell isn't as big as predicted or the direction is slightly off or the tide is wrong or perhaps its the super super crowded conditions - everywhere.

No doubt good waves will be had by some but given the likely concentration of swell and people into maybe a dozen breaks on each coast what are the odds of you getting your fill of empty and perfect waves?

Good luck buddy.

By: "floyd"

the odds will be short everyone will get there fair share of waves you would be lucky to see more than 12 in the water at one time at bells when it pushes the 8ft mark it gets heavy!

Well the largest ever maximum wave height ever has just been registered at the Cape Sorell wave buoy at 11am.

The measurement was 18.4m, just 10cm's above the old record of 18.3m

And with the swell still on the build we could see this record broken again in the next few hours!!

Giddy up. What's the swell direction though Craig? My mate in tassie has yet again been suffering from a hoax as the swell is still to W'ly to get into the Hobart bays. I told him to be patient as tomorrow should be a different story.

any ways on the gold coast this arvo worth a look on the northern end? wish i could go south but not really a option this arvo

It's S/SW out at Sorell but SW further towards the South Arm.

Hoax.. I never had high hopes for the points from this swell due to the track of the system up towards Vicco instead of the South Coast of Tassie.

Here's a snippet of my notes from the forecast...

Unfortunately this system is positioned a little too far west than ideal to produce a large S/SW groundswell which would really get some size pushing into the South Arm. Instead we'll see a large SW swell developing at Clifton during Thursday afternoon, reaching 6-8ft, with the points likely to see 3ft waves. The swell is expected to peak overnight and swing a touch more to the S/SW while easing on Friday morning from 6ft+ at Clifton and 2-3ft on the points.

Hopefully due to the sheer large nature of the swell the're be something spreading in there for the Hobart surfers.

So in summary, all froth and bubble.

^^There would of been a lot of that with the size of the swell, that's for sure!!

4ft sets on the Tassie points yesterday arvo and this morning, so my mate was a little happier today, although he did state that every man, woman, child and pet was at the points hence the crowd factor was ridiculous. So next time one of these swells come through, can ya keep it to yaself Craig ;)

I can keep it to myself Don, but these swells get so overhyped by the grapevine, that every one ends up disappointed and calling hoax in the end when they are forecast fairly accurately.

Tell me one person that wouldn't have been thinking points when there's a 10-20m swell hitting from the south-west.

I tried to hose down the points due to the south-west swell direction, and add some science into it by giving a reason.. instead of saying "The points will be cranking, get down there!!!"

But I acknowledge your request.

Sorry Craig, my "hoax" call wasn't aimed at you....far from it. I too told my tassie mate earlier this week that I thought Friday would be the day for them, rather than the peak of the swell heights on Thursday, but he like a lot of Tassie's were running around like headless chickens frothing over Thursday morning. Tassie sounds like SE Qld, where swell direction is much much more important than swell heights.

Oh and BTW, I was being rather facetious with my "keeping it to yourself" comment, hence the ;) at the end of it.

Haha, and Don I wasn't saying you called hoax. Hope ya get some waves up there over the coming days!