Swell early in the new year
I'm leaning with you Don.....the longer this lady hides her skirts behind Ilse Grand Terre the further back the (second) swell peak......don't want it back there too long because it will miss the opportunity to swoop down on the already existing area of gales with it's active sea state.
Looks like it will be at least a Cat 2 by the time it gets across New Cal.
Craig, I too saw the same weatherman and map footage you saw and I couldn't stop laughing at the ridiculous maps he was putting up and then to quote a 30-40% chance of that chart coming off. What a tool. He was just on again showing GFS charts in about a weeks time+ once again quoting cyclones will form. He reckons that low off cairns will be a cyclone in 12 hrs time?
i also saw this weatherman and his segment and thought that he was comparing the system that we have at the moment to the 74 floods system which struck on australia day 74,obviously very hard to compare given the times and the nature of low pressure systems /cyclones . i'm no weather guru but even a 30% chance of that happening cant be a good thing.
Tip-top, that's the thing though. The chances of that chart above (the one that the dickhead weather man also put up) coming off would not be 30-40%. In fact it wouldn't even be 3-4%. In fact if those charts were progging a cyclone that far out, I'd put money on it that there wasn't going to be one off SE Qld on 28 Jan....and I'd be putting a lot of money on it!!!
"...originating from Wati's extra-tropical expansion off the west coast of NZ's North Island a few days later"
Even though Ben isn't a fanboi of the tropical cyclone he's hit the nail on the head about what constitutes a classic cyclone swell.
That is a strong extra-tropical transition and re-capture by a high pressure ridge somewhere near NZ.
Wati and Bola are the two classic examples.
Looks like Vania will dissipate before ET transition.
Looks like Vania will dissipate before ET transition.
By: "freeride76"
Don't write the old girl off just yet Steve. She still get's cradled briefly by the Tasman high thus still potentially sending us one last hurrah of a solid pulse late on Sunday and into Monday. But granted it will be a brief pulse of SOLID stuff.
She did briefly hit Category 3.
And New Caledonia just suffered a magnitude 7 earthquake this morning. Bugger me, it's all happening out there!!!
TC Zelia is born also.
TC Zelia is born also.
By: "donweather"
Beat me to it Don......
I'd heard about the quake too. And your right, we're frothing over the swell Vania (and possibly Zelia) will be whipping up for us but it's easy to forget they must be copping a flogging on those islands out there.....
yeah fair point don , i did realise it was a pretty big call that far out
Looks like you're on the money Steve. Latest model runs have downgraded the pressure gradients between Vania and the Tasman high.....bugger!!!
Zelia is forecast to pack a punch when she steers close by New Caledonia, with winds up to 80knts in her core and gusts up to 100knts!!!
If New Cal hasn't already copped a flogging from the earthquake and Valia, they sure must be getting worried about Zelia.
Be interesting to see how much swell we get from Zelia as models are seriously struggling with her compact core fetch, but with winds expected to be 80-100knts that's some serious wind speeds even on a compact fetch!!!
Looks impressive but I rarely tune into ASCAT, what'll it mean on the coast?
Yeah I saw that earlier this morning Steve. But unfortunately the swaith missed the forecasted core component of the fetch, but I do agree that the fetch on the backside of Valia looks long, wide and strong. Monday could be SOLID.
Bugger me there's some serious swell in the water now. 3m+ @ 12-13 seconds. And the peak hasn't even arrived yet. How'd you go this morning Steve?
Couldn't get out at the Ox.
Wore about 20 8footers on the head and came in seeing stars.
Gunna have another crack now.
Good luck Steve as the swell has risen even more since this morning.
3.5m @ 14sec+ with Hmax above 6m!!!! Not too far off my hand calcs earlier in the week either. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it Brian!!! (i-u-brawn)
Can someone please tell me why there's such a huge difference between the GC wave buoys and the Mooloolaba wave buoy? This swell was created some reasonable distance offshore and hence radial spreading should mean there's bugger all difference between the wave buoy readings along SE Qld?
Even though the wave buoys have dropped since their peak overnight (of which it looks as though Sydney is seeing the peak in daylight hours this morning) there was still some amazing bomb sets this morning on offer.
How'd you go this morning Steve?
Pretty good Don.
The bombs(6ft) were few and far between but there were very sweet.
Knocked a fin out and got cheese grated coming in but had a great session.
Got to pay the ferryman there.
Yeah I heard it was very inconsistent, thus opening up access to the breaks to the majority of people.
Bugger about the cheese grating.
Next question is.....we gonna see anything from Zelia? These compact fetches are renowned for sneaking under the radar. I see wind speeds peaked at 80knts at her core last night!!!
You end up getting out on Saturday Steve? I had a bit of a chuckle at your 20 waves on the head story, just quietly.
Barstardos and I got a few down in Syd this morning but the high tide did no favours, nor the northerly bump. Just had another surf at the same spot and the tide and wind have switched and it's game on. Dropped 8 inches to a 6'0", sat deeper and got the runners. Played tag with the boils and the rocks and I'm sitting here now missing bark up both legs and hands with two big fuck off sea urchins buried in the ball of my heel.
Gotta get work done so I can squeeze an arvo sesh but can't take my eyes off the cams.
Don - I reckon Zelia's traveling way to fast to give the East Coast any swell at all.
Interesting to note a couple of recent newspaper articles (one of them a surf event press release) attribute the weekend's swell in Qld to TC Zelia!
That made my blood boil.
The strongest fetch is the northerly component aimed at NZ.
That babies' moving at 30knots!!!!!
I reckon it's even too fast to benefit NZ, Steve. STC Zelia will most likely outrun the swell its generating.
Jeez, the long term progs look good for your neck of the woods next week too.
I saw that as well Ben, from Jim Beam.
Dunno how they could attach this swell to Zelia.
Vania is the lovely lady responsible for the great waves that wave graced the coast over the last couple of days.
Thanks Ben. I too figured Zelia wouldn't produce much for the east coast, but she's always a spanner in the works given the punch of the winds near her core, noting that she is extremely compact and moving rapidly SEwards.
Don't get me wrong, not expecting anything of real substance from Zelia, just be interesting tomorrow to see if there's any combo of NE and SE swells in the water, creating some damn nice A frames at certain swell magnet beachies. Morning king tides suck though!!!
OK Gents, its now the 17th of Jan and the peak from Vania has passed and all its lead-swell has been rendered forgettable in its wake. Time to close off this thread and start another one.
Stu - glad to hear you got some joy later this morning. You have now seen a glimmer of what can happen out there. Better get those urchins out properly - don't leave behind any chunky bits!
Got chased out of the water Fri by a rampaging bull shark, surfed some solid 6ft lumps and bumps Sat, couldn't make it out back Sun as the swell came on strong and had a great session today with lost (hand-foiled fibreglass) fin on a new board and plenty of claret as the rock garden did it's job.
Vania was the real deal.
Didya get a go-out Don?
Didya get a go-out Don?
By: "freeride76"
Nah Steve, I know my limits of current fitness and they stop at around the 4-5ft mark at the moment. Also couldn't be arsed fighting the crowds and sweep.
Looking to head out tomorrow. Just trying to debate whether to head north or south. Based on the SC water conditions at the moment I'm leaning towards south.
Now just gotta find a bank that hasn't been shattered from the solid swell over the last few days.
I'm guessing beachies.
Are there big storm bars out the back now Don?
Beachies. Checked from Southport to Miami this morning and ended up at Broady, but generally the same up and down the entire coast. Too small and too much water over the outer bank. Then a gutter and too shallow/long period swell for closeout shoreys.
They have been like that for some time now, but I was hoping Vania would have created some holes. Outer bank looked like it might have some form on a lower than king tide.
That sandbar formation is the status quo Don. V Banks are the rarity on that stretch.
SOB woulda been a better call on the morning run-up.
Are we in for another bout of east nor east swell (particularly qld) followed by an even longer range east nor east swell from a cyclone generated east of fiji and tracking back towards the swell window for the entire east coast.
Or is that just a fairy tale?
Current charts showing a lot of possibilities again, the ones I am looking at are. Anyone like to make public their learned prognostications?
Has anyone seen the latest run on the BOM 10 day models. Suggests a pretty nice scenario of low in the coral sea cradled against a big high - sending a spray of swell across the entire east coast for a week. It wont be big - but it will be rideable and consistent - something we havnt seen in a long time.
https://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=grads/access…
Have a look at the surface wind - looks great to me
https://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=grads/access…
The ECMWF broadly agrees with the scenario but has the low dipping toward NZ much faster
This is a major upgrade on anything we have seen in months. Looks like the Goldy and North coast will get the best of it, with the swell finally making it down to Sydney by late in the first week of 2011. Also suggests that a long tradewind fetch behind it may set up a swell train that could last for weeks