TC Yasi

On the reef, Freeride. Wind about 20kts and gusting E to ESE. Hard to tell what the swell is doing at the moment. I think the Swains is having some affect. It has picked up a bit from this morning.

Craig, check out this link for some pics on Vania.Not too far from here.

www.andrewshield.com.au/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&i…

is it heading south anyone??

You'll need lighter winds to surf that right won't you?

I'm sure there are other angles to surf there.

Wrong swell direction and wrong winds for that reef. I have three other reefs up here within 20nm of each other that will suit predicted conditions, but the Swains will determine that. I,m thinking tomorrow arvo or Fri, with a drop in breeze and probably swell, will be the go. I'm just sitting, waiting, ready.

Oh, and it's Bananas that are most at risk Patty.

Larry saw bananas at $15/kilo.

Local banana growers around here were treated like rock stars.

Sweep is already in full effect here at the Sunshine coast. Coolum to mooloolaba express leaving at dawn. Might want to check what bus you have to catch home.

Hey Freeride, for some reason I'm having difficulty accessing bouy info. Can you please help me out with readings, in particular direction? Any info would be appreciated.

Straddie buoy is reading 30 degrees with peak swell periods around 14seconds. Hsig 1.8M
Hmax 3m

Gladstone Buoy reading 45degrees.

Looks like swell direction is somewhere between NE and NNE.

Gladstone buoy looks like peak swell periods are starting to drop.

Wouldn't wait too long: this baby could die quickly.

Quote from ryder about 2 weeks ago-

"I vividly remember at the height of the Brisbane floods watching the Channel 9 coverage late at night when their weatherman (lets call him Goose) struck fear into what was an already suffering community by predicting 384hrs out (16 days) that "a destructive cyclone" was going to centre itself over SE QLD.

I guess we can now assume that "Goose" was so far off the mark and more intent on milking the C9 agenda than providing any established evidence of his prediction. In reality though any sensible person with the slightest bit of nouse could have sworn that a Graphic Designer hidden in the C9 basement concocted the perfect storm."

Well the 16 days forecast may not have been entirely correct, but the "perfect storm" bit has proved entirely accurate.

C'mon Rusty.. you're drawing an exceptionally long bow. Two other cyclones formed between the Qld floods and STC Yasi, both of them miles away from the Australian mainland. Were they related to the Channel 9 art department too?

And, STC Yasi made landfall near Cairns - 1400km away from Brisbane. Kinda like forecasting a low pressure system for Melbourne but it develops near Ceduna, but still taking the credit. Maybe we should ask Channel 9 what they think.

GFS seemingly has a perpetual Cat2+ cyclone at the end of each 16 day forecast at this time of year, anyway. Channel 9 just used the model data as yet another massive media beat up.

Here's another incredible media beat up: https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/how-cyclone-yasi-compa…

And I quote: "This map shows the impact if the storm was attacking Asia: the scale is unthinkable - taking in an area from Japan, the Koreas and Chin...a all the way through southeast Asia, around through India and the Himalayas and threatening large parts of central Asia. This would have billions of people directly in the path of the category 5 storm, creating a human tide of displaced cyclone "refugees"."

Are they serious? This is quite possibly the most ludicrous attempt at contextualising a natural disaster that I have ever seen.

Not sure if this strays from the topic...but can you explain what data led to the prediction of significant swell from Yasi on the coffs coast...and why it didnt eventuate. Why was swellnet the only source that I saw that had any confidence in the system providing waves to Northern NSW???

As of yesterday Bindi these caveats were made to the swell forecast for Yasi:

"This is likely to see a significant swell shadowing behind areas of the coastline behind large changes in coastline orientation. Areas south of Cape Byron, for example and even the Gold Coast behind the Moreton Bay Islands are likely to be subject to significant swell shadowing."

Still Yasi has under-delivered and I'm aiming to to some significant hindcasting on this system.

Hey Craig,

What's going to happen when Adelaide gets clean fresh water out of their kitchen taps for the the first time in 20 years?

Are they all going to go mad(der), or will it make that lively, gadabout, action, city that never sleeps fun town quieten down a bit?

Are the people talking quietly among themselves in huddled clandestine groups, furtively looking askance, passing on rumours that they may be able to drink water some time in the near future?

I suspect I would.

Haha, I wouldn't call it clean when it's gone through the backwaters of NSW and Vicco first!

That passes for clean out your way Craig! :-)

my sister's very excited that her rainwater doesn't have little fuzzballs from the old asbestos roof she's got replaced there, gone all solar too. There must be some rebate involved I can't see that one forking out so much for a gradual return oh wait yes I can