Solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams
velocityjohnno wrote:
Thanks for getting into it everyone! Craig I've sent a couple of our pics to you, which illustrate one of the flare pulses I reckon. I've seen a family pic from outside Karratha to confirm aurora australis got that far north, and heard on the net that it was visible in Puerto Rico, first time in 103 years!
Shoredump, a level 5 flare I guess you will get that from time to time - Haloween 2003 was one example. We're at a maximum in the 11 year solar cycle and so there's more sunspots to fire them off. For this event there's more incoming, maybe keep an eye on the global K index to see if/when it peaks further:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
and the aurora forecast:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
What has/is changing is the strength of earth's protective geomagnetic field, and it's getting weaker as the geomagnetic poles shift position (c'mon science: give us an honest update on where they are now!). With a weaker magnetic field, more of the particles/plasma will get through, so more auroras for lesser flares, more lightning, more charging of the earth's 'circuit', weirder jet streams, crazier weather, more charging of the atmospheric column - that's my opinion anyway. All on top of CO2 - would love to see a model that works with all these extra inputs and what it predicts.
We are so lucky to live in a time of so much great change, we get to witness it.
So... this bit is for daily good news really, have now been in 3 earthquakes (and saw the weirdest sky phenomenon I've ever seen just prior to one of them), been struck by lightning and survived, and now seen southern lights - all in last few years, in Australia, close to home, where nothing happens. What a time to be alive.
VelocityJohnno. Brilliant stuff mate, thanks for bringing us a long with your great knowledge of that enormous thermonuclear reactor and its reactions. AW
Yeah, really good blackers! Your pics were great too: where were they? There was cloud all day and the SC was caught in a moist SE flow, but as predicted by windy it began to clear in the south which was so good by sundown. We went somewhere between TQ and Anglesea. I am sure we saw a flare pulse as it arrived. Seeing the aurora australis was always on the bucket list and I've missed it a few times, but to see it so huge and spectacular at home never dreamed it would be like this.
I've since got some pics from my son from last night and they are even more dramatic. He was out surfing 13th today and reckoned on the horizon there was still that lime/white green line with a grey haze, during daylight! He reckoned a camera would pick it up better.
Edit: uptick in Kp index on dusk on east coast:
Geez it was pretty special last night. When down to the local beachie and it was beams of vertical light, the horizontal greens and the lovely red shades. The lights where also flashing at some times, like someone was playing with a spotlight against clouds. On the drive home it flared up massively, the whole sky was red and green, even from the street. Absolutely incredible.
Looking pretty dark out there now, and seeing lots of cars driving around on the surf cams. Reckon it'll be busy!
Photos from around the world in this link . Tasmania 
https://x.com/itsjackcohen/status/1789290289246490912?s=46
Dedicated to swellnet's Southern Sky Surfers...
Thanks for the sharing the majesty
Psychedelic Knights of Southern Lights
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSAdelaide/videos/chance-of-aurora-australi…
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1589947938217692
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-31/aurora-australis-seen-in-tasmani…
https://www.independent.co.uk/space/southern-lights-aurora-australia-so…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/31/technico…
Couple of solar flares (not pointed at us), Japan 7.1 earthquake, and they've warned about a following megaquake. I'll link vids cos slack today:
Link to earthquake map:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-84.80247,-258.75&e…
& we had another one that got as far as Kp 8 but apparently wasn't as strong as April's amazing light show so I guess I missed it
And there's another X class flare inbound for this weekend.
https://www.iflscience.com/massive-solar-storm-opens-rare-2-hour-magnet…
"colossal solar storm that erupted in April last year completely obliterated part of the Earth’s magnetic field, morphing the planet’s magnetosphere and causing it to grow “wings”. As a result of this spectacular rare event, a two-way highway between the Sun and Earth temporarily opened up, sending charged particles in both directions and sparking auroras at both ends."
Well that's nuts!
Kp8 storm hitting currently
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Aurora/1/1
aurora forecast
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Seen some great photos of the recent solar activity.
And wow re your comment above VJ.
Yep I just happened across the Kp index, and there it was, the Aurora forecast didn't look as strong as the huge one earlier in the year, but I figured it would be enough for some good pics. I thought I could see a little green/white tinge in the southern horizon amidst the cloud at ours. Cameras didn't reveal more, and the bright moon played it's bit.
There's going to be a day when the sky looks incredible and none of the electronic devices work any more. Who can say when that day will be.
Night Sky looks Majestic right now thru tbb's mind's eye!
Supermoon : "This after hours Solar Flaring is super Exhausting!"
See my halo..."Look at me...I'm a Star!"
Let's all humour the man in the moon...when viewed thru some lunatic's eyes, you're a Star mate!
In fact it's a perfect night for a bike ride to the Moon...
Wait up tbb...You'll need a Helmet...(Silly me!)
uuuge solar storm right now
vid has cool view of the sun with it issuing CME right at us, with sunbound comet on the cam, crazy stuff
As the CME occurred, Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida with multiple tornados
I was watching this VJ, peak solar activity with Milton also firing up but also with a super warm Mexican Gulf.
velocityjohnno wrote:
uuuge solar storm right now
vid has cool view of the sun with it issuing CME right at us, with sunbound comet on the cam, crazy stuff
VJ. Hi mate.
Thanks that’s so good. Level of tech today is amazing. AW
Yep...lit up again this week & next few nights on watch
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSAdelaide/videos/aurora-australis-to-be-vi…
NZ Page is hard to download on Tiktok ...worth accessing via search Gallery > Megan Williams
https://www.google.com/search?q=Megan+Williams+Auroraaustralis&sca_esv=…
https://www.instagram.com/godwardphotography/reel/DA9MLzet_ou/
https://www.9news.com.au/national/aurora-australis-heading-to-australia…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-11/aurora-australis-stunning-return…
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_…
Forecast
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
https://cdn.softservenews.com/southern_lights.html
Steve has been spotted again, this time in the southern hemisphere
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-15/steve-phenomenon-south-east-sa-a…
From a few years back the folklore was that the aurora watchers spotted a light phenomenon they had no explanation for, and so just named it 'Steve'. It had not been seen before (at least in recorded or living memory).
We're going to see more and more things that we haven't (for an immensely long time) as the magnetic field weakens I think.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353750816_Astronomical_Petrogl…
& here's the current solar cycle chart:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
Solar cycle 25 is stronger than 24 but by no means exceptional compared to the solar maximums since the 1950s - so how are we getting such historic auroral activity so far toward the tropics? Weakening magnetic field?
Finally a reference to the updated position of geomagnetic north - still headed toward Russia but moving at 22 miles per year as opposed to previous 34
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/magnetic-north-pole-earth-2…
CMIP7 to include a much more nuanced input of solar forcing:
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/1217/2024/
Anything that better models what is actually happening is welcome. Wonder if they will include cosmic rays and electromagnetic field strength eventually?
'There's this other solar cycle, and we think it'll maybe mean there's lots more solar activity and those cool auroras and nothing to see here, perfectly normal':
https://www.livescience.com/space/the-sun/a-mysterious-100-year-solar-c…
Or: an alibi for crazy space weather influence into the future.
Thanks VJ, always good to have a read of this stuff while keeping an open mind.
We just had a Kp6 level 2 geomagnetic storm, which gave rise to this little fella:
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=222857
Strange and wonderful, eh? A pulse of particles following the magnetic field lines?
;)
Queensland’s Aurora Boganarseis is amazing when it appears every 100 years
loving how wayang the tree silhouette in my son's shot from the roof is..
(haha, where are the photos of/from, @seeds?)
Noice work. Good to see you are sending the young fella up on the roof b6. The stats for males over 50s and ladder related injuries and death are not pleasant reading.
My arse
Your shot is great. It’s seriously that good?
Was hearing about it all on radio today…solar blasts right now.
VJ that was cool footage
blackers wrote:
Noice work. Good to see you are sending the young fella up on the roof b6. The stats for males over 50s and ladder related injuries and death are not pleasant reading.
Haha
blackers wrote:
Noice work. Good to see you are sending the young fella up on the roof b6. The stats for males over 50s and ladder related injuries and death are not pleasant reading.
dude was up there doing handstands. lucky it's just a flat tin roof.
Thanx for sharing yer Super Sunday supplements basesix & seeds... Majestic they are.
Thanx also to blackers for requesting them contraband snuff shots...
Qldurrz gotta smuggle that in...a bit too much Gay Day Glow for our Police State Curfew.
Martini Mussolini laughs off Southern Auroras as spate of Vic Vape Den Explosions
With yer Roof Gymnasts > Got one of them freaks here'n'all!
2 months back was pissing down rain & Blowing a Gale...A cyclone in fact...
We qldurrz still parade about in undies..
Anyhow sitting on me bed with God Squad Neighbour Standing tall on his Roof perving into me bedroom.
Like a Myer Xmas Window...staring eye to eye...just gawks at me...Like fuck off creep...
Who the fuck waits until a Cyclone to Climb the roof & Spy thru the neighbours Bedroom Sliding Door...
Why does he keep looking at my bedroom & not the whole world about...Huh!
Same guy summoned God to Pray for me Heart...reckon he must have God on his side...trying that shit!
How does he not just slide off his steep roof in the rain....God moves in mysterious ways!
hahahahah.. yerp.. grippy little toes strike again ^
sounds like you got yer own well-intended gargoyle @tbb..
News reports on Melbourne bathed in Southern Aurora Red Glow.
https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/82d5b53df7f876b95e669ad0d96346aa
Melbourne's end of season Southern Red Sky Aurora is ever framed by a thin blue line
Vic Tourism : "The last Visitor we had said he was struck by the thin blue line piercing the Hazy Red Sky!"
https://www.facebook.com/9NewsMelbourne/videos/chaos-is-unfolding-on-sw…
truebluebasher wrote:
News reports on Melbourne bathed in Southern Aurora Red Glow.
https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/82d5b53df7f876b95e669ad0d96346aa
Melbourne's end of season Southern Red Sky Aurora is ever framed by a thin blue line
Vic Tourism : "The last Visitor we had said he was struck by the thin blue line piercing the Hazy Red Sky!"
https://www.facebook.com/9NewsMelbourne/videos/chaos-is-unfolding-on-sw…
Genius, hats off to you, TBB.
Very clever spin on that A League malarkey @tbb
And wow the other Aurora was visibly way up into NSW. Beautiful pictures
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-02/aurora-australis-thrills-light-s…
Figure the forums was the best place for this.. sent in by Swellnet reader John a few weeks ago. It's out of my area of expertise but I'm curious...
"Have you ever considered the link between solar flaring, CME's and coronal hole streams; and the 'turbo-charging' of existing weather systems? Pertinent at present as we have an X Class flare (9.3) inbound, on top of a CME presently affecting us, plus a coronal hole stream... and... that very large hurricane breaking records as it bears down on Cuba/Florida.
The basic premise is that solar particles bombard the earth's upper atmosphere with extra hydrogen ions in solar storm conditions, IIRC energy of this plus H joining with O in upper atmosphere adds to the storm/adds water. As earth's magnetic fields weaken (happening) the chances of solar particles getting through increases. I'd be fascinated to see if these conditions correlated with the stories Swellnet sometimes runs on sub tropical lows intensifying in the southern ocean, or bombing ECLs".