Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast (Fri 22nd Nov)

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 22nd November)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday morning, Tuesday and Wednesday for experienced surfers

Recap

A low point in swell activity was seen yesterday morning with sets to 1-2ft under N/NE winds which freshened during the day. The swell also kicked a little into the afternoon but conditions were poor with the onshore breeze.

This morning was a write-off across most spots with a new short-range E/NE swell mixed in with a lower quality NE windswell to 2-3ft but with fresh to strong N/NE winds. The E/NE swell should peak this afternoon to 3ft+ or so but winds will remain poor and from the NE.

This weekend (Nov 23-24)

The weekend is looking really fun as today's increase in E/NE swell is reinforced by some new E/NE swell generated by a broad fetch of E/NE winds feeding into a broad surface low sitting over Tasmania (pictured right).

This should create fun 3ft+ across open beaches tomorrow morning that should ease slowly into the afternoon and further Sunday as the ridge moves east and away from us.

Winds will swing offshore tomorrow morning as the ridge moves offshore creating great waves across open beaches but a shallow S/SE change is expected later morning before tending more E'ly into the afternoon. Sunday will be clean again with morning W/SW winds ahead of a fresh S/SE'ly into the afternoon.

Next week (Nov 25-29)

The outlook for next week is exciting with the low pressure system that's expected to move slowly east from Tasmania over the weekend, forecast to deepen at the entrance of the Southern Tasman Sea.

This will see a fetch of severe-gale S/SE winds aimed towards us initially Sunday evening and Monday morning before projecting a weaker fetch of strong to gale-force S/SE winds into us later Monday and Tuesday (animated right).

This will result in the formation of a large S/SE groundswell due to the fetch pushing up towards us acting on an already active sea state, and a peak at this stage is expected Tuesday. Winds will be generally from the SW to SE, but we'll review this all again on Monday.