Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast (Thu 20th Feb)

Nias, Mentawai, South Sumatra forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 20th February)

Best Days: Sunday onwards

Friday and Saturday (Feb 20 - 22)

There's been no change to the end of this week and the start of the weekend with small and inconsistent levels of background swell with generally light winds from the NW tomoreow and then more variable winds Saturday.

Sunday onwards (Feb 23 onwards)

There's also been no change to the pulses of SW groundswell expected from Sunday through early next week with the strongest arriving Monday afternoon and persisting into Tuesday morning at a very inconsistent 3-5ft at exposed spots.

The source of this swell is some 6,000km away so you can expect very long waits between sets with not much in between.

Conditions should be great with light variable trade-winds persisting from Sunday through Wednesday in between localised rain squalls and thunderstorms.

There's still nothing to really talk about into the longer term, with a slow decline in size expected from Wednesday onwards and becoming tiny into the weekend.

This will be mostly related to a series of blocking highs setting up across the Southern Indian Ocean through the coming forecast period (pictured right), keeping all frontal activity firmly at polar latitudes and some distance away from the Indonesian Archipelago.

Therefore aim to surf around the swell due Sunday onwatds as this looks to offer the most size for the foreseeable future.