Massive surf forecast for Ireland
And.. check the 16 day forecast for Lahinch (Ireland West Coast).
Ten of these sixteen days have forecast surf heights of 15ft or above!
https://www.swellnet.com/reports/ireland/county-clare/lahinch/forecast
So is that forecast calibrated for THAT famous slab? Or is this the Lahinch region and if so, what do you think that slabby wave might get to? Winds probably making it unsurfable hey?
caml wrote:Yeah ben thats the biggest forecast. 6m @ 20 sec powerful
Actually it's 11.4m @ 18.7 sec.. Phenomenal! But it'll be bloody windy too.
Whilst swells of this size and magnitude can happen (and have happened) in Australia, it's the perpetual conveyor belt of massive storms that's a more regular occurrence in the North Atlantic. Partly due to the fact that it's a smaller, closed basin than the Southern Ocean.
mitchvg wrote:So is that forecast calibrated for THAT famous slab? Or is this the Lahinch region and if so, what do you think that slabby wave might get to? Winds probably making it unsurfable hey?
That slab is not too far from Lahinch, and is pretty exposed as well so this forecast would be a good indicator of size there. However I don't think it holds these kinds of swells. There are much better waves in sheltered spots that'll be dishing up the goods this time round. And if the winds back off there are a bunch of big wave spots that face due west that'll be a better choice.
That secondary system generating Monday/Tuesday's swell is absolutely monstrous. Can't remember seeing a system that big and powerful! Crazy.
Mullaghmore is offshore with a sou wester right ? Could be super huge lefts
I've never seen so many isobars before. Basically the whole synoptic is white with isobar lines.
wow
Braithy ,
Beware the 2 millibar incremental charts they make things look " busier " .... yes more detail but in this instance just more sensationalism for Ben and the Boys .....
Craig , What sort of floor of Pressure is in those Lows . 940mb ????
The Ridge / Highs to their south look quite strong well into the 1030's hence the large gradient ....
Caml , you need to check out Tassie ( if you haven't already ) .....
Cape Sorell Buoy gets interesting to study.
Ben what swell size was that XXL Pedra Branca swell that a few of the Boys checked after a Shipsterns session ??? Was it Stu Gibson calling it 40Ft , and gargantuanly perfect except for too stiff a offshore breeze ??
Yeah spot on Southey, 944 centre and a high pressure ridge to 1030, about as stronger gradient as it gets!
southey wrote:
Ben what swell size was that XXL Pedra Branca swell that a few of the Boys checked after a Shipsterns session ??? Was it Stu Gibson calling it 40Ft , and gargantuanly perfect except for too stiff a offshore breeze ??
Don't have the data with me right now but I recall it was a pretty bog-standard 5-6m Hsig swell with periods in the 16-17 second range. I reckon Pedra gets those swells regularly - it's just that they're very windy and access is difficult. Sure, Ireland is windy but if you've got the ability to sit on land and watch for small windows of opportunity you've got a massive advantage over a open ocean wave that requires long, lengthy and expensive logistics just to see if it's any good (the Tassie blokes have done the hard yards out there before and not surfed).
yeah im really interested in this sorta info, I do keep an eye on the bouys from w.a. to s.a. to Tassie . pretty much daily .for the last 16 years I watch the w.a. bouys then the last few years ive included the sa and tas bouy. the last two times pedra was surfed,ie this year in oct 20 th I think was 6 dropping to 5 metres @ 16-17 during the session . and last year on oct 9th or 10th it was more like 4.5 m @16 that was when marty p rode that slab . I surfed cow bommie the day before at 4.2 @ 16 ( nat bouy) and it was at least 20 ft. so any way how big Ireland would be is at least double the metres and with a bigger period so ? how big ? any one remember some of Australia/nz biggest swells ? ie nat bouy got to 8-9 metres late winter this year , but the period was low about 12-14 with onshore winds .
Thats right i have one saved that was ten metre from mid aug i think that was tassie and s.a. Bouys. That had a strong period too about 16-18.but onshore. What about in the last 50 yrs , what are the biggest swells for aust shores ? Swells without wind behind them
I met you Camel in 96 and a few following years and remember you telling me some pretty good info on G-land weather patterns needed. I have to thank you for that. Scored speedies many times due to that.
Even some of the regulars or egoed out packed out people couldnt pick the days for speedies last time i was there but your info worked 100% of the time every time.
Didnt tell anyone of coarse.
Can you tell us here what really happened with indo how you survived and the story of evading cops and island hopping with no visa etc some time?
If not someone like Nick Carroll should write a book on you.
It would be a good book.
I'm only interested in Still / light winds (offshores) and solid Swells .
I can pick two that i was there in the flesh to witness being 3/5/10 :- 8M @ 16 Secs .Only issue was with that was that the wind only dropped out for that about 4-6 Hrs before dawn so was still raw .
The other being one I've previously discussed with Ben . Good Thurs ? April 2012 Being
:- 7M @ 20-21? secs , that however was probably one of the cleanest in the 20 years that i remember . It was Offshore and reasonably Solid for 30-35 hrs only for the wind to go still and variable and a second swell arriving late arvo . Which peaked at above Stats .
I'm sure there is more you could find in Archives , as these are only the ones I followed in the flesh , i forget half a dozen bigger ones when i couldn't go . Obviously there have been some Hmax in the 15-18M range and HSig in the 10M range , just winds would not be ideal . But as Ben says you have to be there for the off chances when it does for short times backoff for Raw conditions .
Stats on the Easter 81' swell would be interesting especially with varying timing placement of pre frontal strong winds ????
I do remember some swells pre computers charts ( late Eighties , early Nineties ) where i was in spots that couldn't handle the swell and favourable winds that would have been interesting to know more exposed conditions .
Anyone want to pass coment on the Tides influence on this Swell . Are they seeing simlilar king tides in that neck of the woods aswell ? Obviously we are in differing Hemispere's and the Perigee angle will be opposite ...? Could we see that La Hinche Slab hold even bigger with even more Tidal influence ???
caml dosent need nick carroll to write his story.........caml needs swellnet to tell his story......its the story we all want to hear straight from the camls mouth.........payment could be a return ticket to a monster swell such as this Ireland bomber.........but only if caml wants to sell/tell his story
Here we go,
Instead of NC to take the ice ing right of the top of the cake, Stu can do it for sure.
The interesting stuff first here sorry . The april swell about 4th ? I know the one the low was the size of australia . it wasnt that big in s.a. About 5 m @18 . Yeah i was trying to find maps for that one myself . Can the scientists bust out some archives for us .the easter bells 18th april 81
Groundy @ funny that about speedys , im still studying it nowdays from oz but am able to use internet . Back when i lived in the jungle there wasnt such detailed info . The biggest factor worth mention is how the first day of a swell there can be most south angled then the next days it comes from further west angle . It was confirmed to me once i started reading swell angle forecasts .
Sept 24th 09 nat bouy read 5.5 metre @ 18. . Cow bommie was 30 ft that was biggest waves id surfed at the time . Then i saw the alb bouy , 8m ! I was blown out cos id never surfed down there much
Not Sorell Caml ..... On both occasions Sorell would have been under a different wind regime . And usually is during large swells .
The older day was a different no longer available source , and the second which i think was April 5? ( i will have to check elsewhere and confirm ) was a virtual Buoy . Most likely the same raw data that Swellnet now use as their base to build on for their formula ( but you won't get Ben admitting that here ) i watched the ocean all day both in and out of it and the Period was spot on , even the timing of the increase ... They actually fluked the Local wind reports , which was contrary to The BOM's local WATL / ECMWF models . Anyway it was described by someone that should know better than me , as the best "conditions" in 20 Years . I was elsewhere the good day 20 years earlier , but could compare both as "the day" in the 90's made " media coverage " ....
If your mobile number hasn't changed from two years ago , I 'll text you a good guide to take from other " non tidal " effected buoys that could give you an idea of what to expect as opposed to watching the said buoys in other areas ....
You speak of rottnest , even when i lived there and had full access to where ever , we still relied on the Buoy . It would pinpoint what would do what .
How much reduction in swell is there from a shelf like irelands compared with nazare?
Shorey i ve only checked nazare few times but if i remember correct this one is bigger . It looks like the brunt of swell hits ireland so i was looking there
Yeah shorey after having a look at some atlantic synoptis have to agree it could be bigger than last superswell at naza . Ireland isnt getting any more than portugal . Its huge for the whole zone
Nah Caml ,
As i said before it wasn't a Tide effected buoy . So not Nepean . It was Private but originally available .
Now i beleive it is actually offline , there are archives for it . But i'm pretty sure they are Locked away .
I think there is someone on here that still has access ?!? But i can't be certain so i won't name publicly who i think it was . You might be able to work it out from one of the Old " Buoy" articles , comments or thread or perhaps it was one of those really long SA threads that went on for donkeys years .
As i said , i have " other ways " of correlating size from the other Government buoys that works .
Far out is there a secret society with these bouys ? I have seen one of them before . He had a carnarvon bouy but i couldnt get anything further .
use earth for weather systems if you like but no swells but good fetch and wind patterns.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic…
A lot of the good bouys that show wider oceans you need to pay for membership
Or you could use magic seaweed or other map sections but they are small maps
caml ,
I sincerely can't access these private buoys anymore and to tell you how i did in the past would only get myself into trouble .... Someone on here did boast that they could , but most likely it was an in that they had which was not " paid for " , although i could be wrong ....
Either way i won't openly out them incase its the former .
Here is one company that offers " service " for a fee , maybe you could twist Ben into adding this service to your Sponsorship package ;-) .... could be a tax writeoff .... heheh
Since i lost access to " a site " i have sinced changed computers and have lost the link .
But this is another company that could be someone to talk to if your really serious .
" https://rpsmetocean.com/data-access/login/login.do "
Seriously though , I'm pretty sure that the virtual packages that SN are offering are as near as good as the real thing . With local knowledge and this site , you can't go wrong . Hence i have openly criticised and not so openly pleaded to swellnets various heirarchy to have them not include some areas in their forecasts , mainly overseas but also in Aust .
As i said i use 4 different buoys to " calculate " where did exactly what if i can't get to actually see it first hand and count the period .
i do however have screen shots of virtual buoys from both of these days although only the earlier one is easily accessible .
Do u do this becos u are keen surfer or is it fishermen and who else uses this data ?
I used them as i was always trying to get the best possible spot in any given swell ON ...
Definitely surfing . I do fish , but only to relax . As far as i know only other blokes like Craig and Ben use stuff like this . That was until we all started chatting about it in these walls . It surprised me that there were infact one or two keen surfers that were infact playing with these sites ... As you may not be aware , Vic & Tassie are quite complex at mastering surf forecasts or more so to the point understanding why what happens .
Thats why i was questioning why you were so keen to find out the sites . In the end I've worked out my own rules of thumb when it comes to swell . Along the way in all this ( 10-15 years ) , I've become a real " surf conditions " snob , and get reluctant to travel unless its going to be very good . Which is Good , as naturally as i get older and life busier i don't have time to waste . cheers Pete
Southey what do you think is more important with a cyclone swell or one of those tight compact lows (besides intensity of winds) do you think its width of fetch pointing at location or length of fetch?
Im guessing width of fetch would increase the amount of areas picking up swell but would it improve period and size as much as the length of the fetch?
(Say like with two tight compact lows doing a figure 8, or bicycle chain sort of thing- not much width but lots of length vs wide intense fetch and not so long.
Southey, that URL was the old access page for a number of hardware installations owned by Met Ocean who did private forecasting for Woodside (amongst other clients). Part of their services include wave measurements, either by bouys (commonly used in their NW WA installations) or wave radars.
As for the 'Vic buoy', you may be referring to the Thylacine platform that is about 70km south of Cape Otway. It has a laser altimeter which measures wave heights and periods. I had access to the data for a couple of years but don't any more (I have requested data access for Swellnet, but was declined). For what it's worth - used in conjunction with the CdC and Sorell buoys - Thylacine data was useful to triangulate swell direction quite well, and often picked up faint long period forerunners better than the buoys, however it seemed to often over estimate Hsig values.
But, Thylacine was very useful to have for cut off lows that developed in the Bight - their associated storm track often meant that the associated swell direction and origin developed too far north to be measured with any degree of usefulness at Cape Sorell (for Victorian surfing purposes).
There's another platform near Thylacine (Geographe) but I wouldn't have thought it'd be necessary to have a second wave measuring system there. As for other buoys in the SW Vic region, Sustainability Victoria ran an 18-month wave program off Portland and Port Campbell (see here), but the project has now finished. Perhaps they're the buoys you were referring to?
East of Melbourne - and indeed the Prom - there's a wave radar on the Kingfish B platform, and a wave buoy offshore from Lakes Entrance. We discussed some of this in Stu's article "The Buoys Light Up: The wonderful Directional Spectra".
caml wrote:
Far out is there a secret society with these bouys ? I have seen one of them before . He had a carnarvon bouy but i couldnt get anything further .
No secret society at all, Camel. Simply - these wave measuring services are incredibly expensive to install and maintain, so the clients who pay enormous sums to fund them (usually gas/oil companies) prefer to keep this valuable information to themselves.
southey wrote:
The older day was a different no longer available source , and the second which i think was April 5? ( i will have to check elsewhere and confirm ) was a virtual Buoy . Most likely the same raw data that Swellnet now use as their base to build on for their formula ( but you won't get Ben admitting that here )
I'm happy to confirm that this particular swell event had nothing to do with creating the custom algorithms we use for our swell/surf forecasts.
Back on topic... here's some pics sent to me from Lahinch, Ireland (West Coast). I believe this was from the first swell - not the big mo'fo due Monday morning local time - but the Friday swell that was only forecast to reach 35ft or so.
I've got some pics of more benign conditions along that same seafront, I'll try to dig 'em up. Came in at that exact same spot during a big full tide and a stormy 4ft swell after surfing one of the nearby left reefs.. There was too much water smashing against the cliffs at the usual access path, so I paddled down and came in right where those houses are - but it almost swatted me against the seawall! Can't imagine what it's been like these last few days..
Thank you for the info about the bouys . Understandable to hear its gas n oil companies . One thing always to have to do is become familiar with different types of bouys . Ie the publicly avai west oz bouys dont seem to be as sensitive as cdc & sorrel . The w.a. Ones round things off more making it look a bit smaller all round with the heights & period .
Been meaning to write an article on that for a while camel - there's a lot of difference between each state's buoy data which is very confusing when you're travelling interstate and want to confirm the arrival of new swells. But there are also some developments on the horizon that may improve things in this regard. I'll see if I can put together an article in the next couple of days.
thermalben wrote:
The older day was a different no longer available source , and the second which i think was April 5? ( i will have to check elsewhere and confirm ) was a virtual Buoy . Most likely the same raw data that Swellnet now use as their base to build on for their formula ( but you won't get Ben admitting that here )I'm happy to confirm that this particular swell event had nothing to do with creating the custom algorithms we use for our swell/surf forecasts.
Im know , I'm terrible at proof reading my posts .... Amazing with the ommission of one FROM . it can take a new path ....
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southey wrote:The older days data was from a different no longer available source , and the second which i think was April 5? ( i will have to check elsewhere and confirm ) was a virtual Buoy . Most likely from the same raw data set that Swellnet now use as their base to build on for their formula ( but you won't get Ben admitting that here )
LOL ... I think you guys need to employ an Interpreter to explain some of my posts to the punters . I often lose myself , and usually distracted by kids or lack of sleep .
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/01/02/0000Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/ort…
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This site models the world's winds - thought some of you might like it.
.. and the whole of Europe. How's this beast of a swell due to next Monday?
Haven't seen a system like this in a very long time.