The Punters Club - Fiji Pro 2015
The fifth event on the WSL 2015 Championship Tour will be the first real test for the tour rookies and the red hot Brazilian Storm. Fiji tosses up so many questions to the surfers and fans alike: Can defending Fiji Pro and World Champ Gabriel Medina pull his season back on track? Can the world’s best small wave surfer, Filipe Toledo, continue his form in big barreling lefts? Which of the tour rookies will step up? And can Kelly Slater return to the winner’s circle? Slater has not won a CT since Pipe way back in 2013.
In regards to the World Title race, Adriano de Souza stumbled in Rio, posting a 13th, which he will be hoping is a throwaway result come season's end. Toledo has moved into second place on the rankings after claiming his second CT victory for the year, which puts him in the lead on adjusted rankings (best 3 of 4 results). Mick Fanning’s 9th place finish in Brazil has kept him in the top 3 ahead of Josh Kerr and Nat Young. Since 2010 Medina is the only World Champ to include a 9th place finish in his end of year points tally. Fanning already has a 13th and a 9th next to his name so he will be looking for Quarters or better from here on in. Interesting to note that the Brazilian Storm has finished on top in all four events so far this year besides ADS losing to Fanning on a countback at Bells.
Forecast
By Craig Brokensha at Swellnet:
There's going to be no shortage of swell for the Men's event with the first couple of days due to kick off with 4-6 foot surf.
The rest of the period will consist of long-range and very inconsistent Southern Ocean energy in the 3-5 foot range, with the possibility of two larger S/SW groundswell events. The first is due through the middle of the waiting period and could offer larger 8-10 foot surf, with a similar size pulse possible on the final days of the contest.
We'll keep you updated on those developments.
Harro's Picks
Conditions will play a vital role in who wins Fiji. Slater won in big surf in 2012 and 2013 with Medina winning in small conditions last year. All eyes will be on Filipe Toledo and how he manages the backhand barrels. It's highly unlikely that above the lip surfing will be an option at either Cloudbreak or Restaurants which nullifies Toledo's advantage and brings him back to the pack.
Pick – Mid Field
Owen Wright has done two trips two another heavy barrelling left - Teahupoo - in the last month. The big goofy footer has been on a mission in the big stuff since returning from back injury. Owen finished 9th at Fiji last year going down to Mick Fanning which he backed up with a 5th place finish at Teahupoo, losing to Slater who scored 19.80. If it’s big in Fiji and he doesn’t snap all his boards from charging too hard, Owen will be there on the final day.
Pick – Winner
Is the World Title race already narrowed down to just three surfers: Toledo, De Souza, and Fanning? Mick Fanning will be looking at the next three events as the perfect time to strike against the Brazilian Storm. Mick finished 5th at Fiji last year and 2nd and 3rd the years before, he won J'Bay last year with Teahupoo being a massive challenge for the Brazilian storm. Fiji is a pivotal event for Mick.
Pick – Runner-Up
Kelly Slater has had a slow start to the year and hasn’t won a CT in the last 18 months. If conditions are consistently big in Fiji Slater will be putting on a show just like he did winning in 2012 and 2013. Not many can keep up with Kelly at Cloudbreak, the bigger it is the bigger Kelly’s winning margins will be. On the other hand if conditions are small and inconsistent we will need to wait and see if Kelly remains motivated.
Pick – Semi Finals
Experiencing a sluggish start to the year is defending World Champ Gabriel Medina who is currently ranked 19th after the first four events. Medina won both Fiji and Teahupoo last year in a variety of conditions so he can’t be written off despite his struggle to regain the form that saw him lifting trophies and spraying champagne. If conditions are small at the back end of the event the goofy footers will have a massive advantage squeezing into the tight barrels.
Pick – Semi Finals
Ratings leader Adriano de Souza will be keen to bounce back after a disappointing result in Brazil. ADS finished 5th at Fiji last year but then posted his worst result of the year at Teahupoo with a 25th. ADS won in big conditions at Margies on his forehand, the big question will be can he win when it’s big and barreling on his backhand?
Pick – Quarter Finals
Joel Parkinson is currently sitting in 20th position on the rankings! Yes, you read that correctly. The 2012 World Champ will be looking forward to competing in some good solid waves. Joel finished 9th at Fiji last year and hasn’t made the Quarters since Trestles, his last win was two years ago at Keramas. Joel’s silky smooth style is suited to the Cloudbreak barrels.
Pick – Quarter Finals
Taj Burrow has been flying under the radar so far this year but has still posted a 3rd and a 5th. Taj is one of the more experienced surfers on tour and can never be ruled out of winning any event. The West Australian is a proven performer in the barrel on his backhand and a big result at Fiji will have his fans thinking World Title.
Pick – Quarter Finals
Powerfully built Italo Ferreira is the top ranked rookie heading into Fiji at 11th. The Brazilian goofy footer is coming off a 3rd place finish at Brazil, a career best result to date. Fast and snappy surfing has seen Italo jump up the rankings but he is yet to be tested in the barrel on his forehand.
Pick – Quarter Finals
Other Contenders
Bede Durbidge is in good form finishing runner-up at Brazil jumping 11 spots on the rankings
Nat Young, the highest ranked goofy footer, finished runner-up at Fiji last year
Roughies
Matt Wilkinson coming off a 3rd at Brazil, Wilko will be dangerous on his forehand.
Jeremy Flores charges in big waves - he's a Pipe Master, has won the AI Award at Teahupoo, and also scored a perfect 20 at Teahupoo - and he's a great tube rider
C.J. Hobgood is one of the world’s best barrel riders. He'll be more pumped than most for a big event after a horror start to the year.
Bubble Boys
C.J. Hobgood is the only surfer not to make a heat in the first four events.
Kai Otton, Adrian Buchan, Kolohe Andino and Dusty Payne are sitting in equal 30th position. Otton and Buchan are proven performers in big barreling lefts.
Wildcards
Aritz Aranburu - replaces Jordy Smith
Jay Davies - replaces Brett Simpson
Alejo Muniz – replaces Michel Bourez
Dane Reynolds – WSL Wildcard
Aca Ravulo – Local Wildcard
Scratchings
Jordy Smith - knee injury.
Brett Simpson - unspecified injury sustained at while surfing at Huntington Beach.
John John Florence – high ankle sprain surfing in Brazil, looking to be back for J-Bay.
Michel Bourez – incurred broken fingers and vertebrae surfing Teahupoo, looking to be back for J-Bay.
The Form Guide
Like a punt? Swellnet doesn't encourage it, but if you’re like Harro and want to wager some coin on the tour, the 2015 Fiji Pro Punter’s Club brought to you by William Hill has an exclusive offer: get your MONEY BACK if your surfer scores 14 points or more in their heat and still loses (up to $50 and applies to Mens Fiji Pro only).
Comments
"The first is due through the middle of the waiting period and could offer larger 8-10 foot surf, with a similar size pulse possible on the final days of the contest."
That swell on the last day of the waiting period is highly suspect if it'll arrive in time IMO.
It is a little touch and go, but we're a long way out as well, so it's worth pointing out rather than totally discounting.
Fair point.
I still think run with what's on offer now. Get Rd 1 out of the way either Sat (if they start the comp early) or Sunday and then finish it next week/weekend. Speaking of which, latest GFS run has somewhat downgraded that swell for next Friday/weekend. You still thinking 8-10ft?
Yeah, a slight drop but I'm still expecting 6-8ft, with 10ft bombs Friday afternoon when it peaks, winds are a little suss as well late in the day.
Aritz Aranburu in for Jordy Smith.
Is Jordys knee injury that bad......or is he thinking there may be 2012 mega swell forming.
How consistent/inconsistent will the swell be? If its inconsistent then the rookies and noobs get pulled down a few pegs, and the experienced heads like CJ, Parko, Flores can use their time on the reef and competitive nous to advantage.
This is going to be sick. Nearly farm gate Gary sick even.
according to the WSl
As for Smith's replacement, a local Trials event Friday local time will determine who will surf in his place.
So there is a comp on tomorrow, I'm confused
I was confused for a while too
I was also confused for a while, I know how you feel Gary G.
Same old story, another night in. Gary G feels Gary G.
Ha Ha, I surprised everyone I'm sure with my prediction of Wilko to win the last event, going with Wilko again while he's on a roll!
I can't see Wilko doing well in barreling left-handers. Would've locked in JonJon but as he's out I think Parko will step up in Fiji.
So Slater's paying $1.57 against Pupo and Cro in Rd 1 and if he loses and scores over 14 points at pumping Cloudbreak you get your money back! Are you serious?
Lol aritz
Dont know what this is meaning...aritz is well worthy.
you were saying?
.
Toledo again, smaller stuff early on is perfect for him and he'll be comfortable at 10'. Seems like the most hungry and focused on tour at the minute.
Slater hasn't won an event since 2013!
Ding Dong that's the bell....good bye Kelly.
Also if Jay Davies wins the comp and collects 10,000 points, he's mathematically a massive chance to qualify. Last years cut off was 20,000 points. Dare to Dream but if the unit got on tour with waves like pipe chopes he would be hard to knock off. Got buckleys getting on tour via QS.
Either way he must be a chance of getting wildcards at Billabongs other sponsored events
Jay has already been given a spot in the trials at Chopes! Would be sick to see him on the tour full-time.
pretty good at Resturants today. Photos up at tracks
https://www.tracksmag.com/gallery-a-freesurf-session-at-restaurants/
Gee thats good news for Jay, those trials are stacked though good luck.
Yeh the trials are stacked at Chopes but so are the scratchings! Toledo claimed he was injured last year so pulled out of Chopes, he won the US Open a few weeks earlier in one foot surf, now the dudes on track for a world title. Interesting to see what happens this year at Chopes and who gets in as wildcards. Jack Robbo?
Got a gut feeling slater is due for a win.
Aritz arrived in Fiji after a mammoth 47 hr journey.
Jay Davies, his surfing is only eclipsed by his rig. A real beacon for us fitness enthusiasts.
Even though his name is Jay I call him Tony because of his hell rig. As in, rigatoni. Get it? Yew
Don't you just hate a lay day on the first day of the waiting period!
WSL morning show chat with Slater worth watching.
yeah Udo great performance from Kelly so confident. I like Brutus call a few years ago that Kelly going to stick around. He's got nothing to prove to anyone but he's enjoying being 'the show"
Massive mind games on Adriano "not the first time Adriano has come into Rio leading the ratings". Much lesser extent on Filipe that was all praise from Kelly. Fascinating insight.
Looks like good waves and tides for the mornings and a real good day Monday for finals. Reckon if Kelly can get through to finals day be a good bet.
Latest forecast suggests a Friday start?
Forecast update:
The swell due into Friday afternoon and Saturday has been downgraded a touch but we’re still looking at easy 6ft sets with the odd bigger one in the mix Saturday and Sunday morning.
We’ve also got an upgrade in the swell due to arrive Monday, peaking overnight and easing Tuesday. This swell looks to be more in the 6-8ft range with the possibility for some rare bigger bombs before easing into the rest of the waiting period.
Winds are forecast to be fresh from the E/SE Friday, strengthening and tending more SE through the weekend and possibly swinging more S/SE early next week. This may see the action moved to Restaurants through Monday afternoon and Tuesday.
Looking at the wind forecast for this weekend, I'd hazard a guess that CB on the high tide will be close to non-surfable with some sizey chop heading up the face of the waves at CB. Will this swell get into Restaurants over the weekend and will the strong E/SE wind be offshore there? Otherwise they may well be stuck trying to fit 4 days of competition into 3 (Mon/Tues/Wed)?
If only they'd run Rd 1 on Sunday when it was glassy all day!!!!
Yeah not sure on all of those but yes Restaurants will have waves over the weekend.
So was Sunday glassy all day? Got no idea why they didn't run at least some heats then.
Well according to Kelly in that interview it was glassy all day Sunday.
Cro is frothing for Restaurants!
They should have moved it forwards and ran Sat.
Wasn't there an issue with the late wildcard entry Aritz not getting there in time for Sat?
Maybe.
You can imagine the pressure KP is under from Slater and Mick to run the event in sizeable waves, otherwise Brazilian Storm will be coming on strong. Limited accommodation on both islands so had to wait for the girls to clear out before the boys could check in. And yes a couple of late pull outs messed them around with organising next in line. With Round 1 being a non losers round lets wait and see if any wildcards do any good in the event or just making up the numbers?
Doesn't look like KP's under too much pressure in this shot (Pic #3).
https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/men-arrive-swell-subsides-under-flawl…
Looks to me as though he just wants perfect waves to himself!!!
around the grounds
Piha 4-5 foot today, Sydney climbing above 2m, Eden buoy showing a peak 2m in the early hours this morning and now hovering around a 1m. Given 3 days travel time Friday will be a no go.
Fair bit of interest in the forecasting. Surfline has had close to 400,000 page views on their Forecast update published 06/08/15
All in all comp is in a way better position than Snapper was at the same stage.
whose cro?
Friday will definitely have swell, swell front this morning was already north of a line drawn between Seal Rocks and the top of the North Island.
Models have 1.2m @ 16.1s at dawn, which should be an easy but inconsistent 4-5ft if not bigger.
Micro.
Is that in reference to his scorpion and back injury
He can't wait to surf Restaurants, redemption.
No redemption for Micro - be lucky to get to 4 foot at Resturants.
What are the odds that the comp actually bloody starts?
When they don't run on the first day they lose plenty of interest as people have already been waiting since the last event. Besides the surfers who cares what the surf is like in Round 1, its a no losers round. When the event is all over who is talking about the conditions in Round 1. As mentioned above the big dogs want Round 1 in good surf so they have the best chance to skip Round 2 where they more than likely will come up against the dangerous wildcards.
It's time to get the event winner and top four bets in. I can't go past Nat Young paying $7 for a top four finish. He's come third three times already this year and second here in 2014.
Nat Young is a good bet especially if conditions are on the smaller side - tight almondy barrels! haha
The William hill money back special only applies to heat bets doesn't it? Ie it doesn't apply to a top 4 finish bet of winner bet does it?
Yes don only heat by heat by the looks of it.
Money back at William Hill is on all rounds head to head.
underway in underwelming conditions. Kelly surfing a Webber
the facade is crumbling. board looked horrible.
I think it was also the sh1t waves Steve. So glad KP waited til today to start!!!!
Ross just said it looked spunky and fast. Said it was spot on
Ross will say anything to talk up the Seppo's.
High tide at 3pm, guess they will punch out a few rounds today and tomorrow morning.
Its actually pretty reflective of standard cloudbreak day without the 40 gremlins on it.
Kelly looked like he was riding a fun board for a small beach break! Maybe in protest to KP flicking the switch.
Ross lives in a parallel fantasy world now when it comes to Slater.
Problem is , reality keeps slapping him in the face.
Probably the best heat ever for Kai, Wheels are coming off ADS, though should have a free pass through round 2
Ha ha...one bad heat and the wheels are coming off!
Two in a row - Ricardo had him on the bottom of an all black ruck and didn't let him out.
Gotta think CJs career is on the line with this comp and Tahiti
Bloody strange surfing from Clifton James. Almost like he doesn't wanna be there, or more accurately, he wants to be there but doesn't want to compete. At least two of his waves he started well, big opening turn, and then....pffft, he drops the intensity and labours down the line like a weekend warrior.
Well there you go, CJ announces his retirement at the end of the year.
Otton won the heat in the first five minutes and rattled ADS, CJ looks like he is just mucking around, if it gets big for Round 2 he might flare!
and therein lies the secret.
ADS always gets the first wave.... Both Kai and Ricardo had him rattled to by posting big scores early.
Big O ripped off. His 7.67 was way better than Seabass'.
O underscored and Seabass overscored.
Yes totally agree, Seabass got lucky.
pretty average surf you cant control mother nature but the footage of restaurants free surf during the waiting period was pretty dam good and they run in this ? i still think kelly would be hard to beat in pumping macking cloudbreak , he has the experience and has put in the time there
I think that the Restaurants footage was actually the day after the womens comp finished. So, not into the mens yet.
ok cool i have seen so much footage lately its hard to work out which is which , i guess the men are just not having much luck this year with waves
Is there something fishy about this "14 points and your surfer loses & you get your money back" being run by William hill bookies?
Not one surfer in the 1st 10 heats has had a score of 14+ and finished second.
alarm bells much?
Hold the phones, A-Mello just finished 2nd with a 14.60.
As you were... (gamble happily knowing that the corruption will never be discovered)
: )
Obviously depends on the conditions, 2 losing heat scores today were over 14.
Are you suggestion William Hill has something to do with the wave scores?
I am suspicious of the introduction of this line of betting/reward scheme and their affiliation with the (cash strapped) WSL.
It's only up to $50 (hardly enough for corruption) and there's no association between William Hill and the WSL.
You work for Willy H Craig?
: )
Just stirring the pot mate. Wouldn't trust a bookie as far as I can throw em.
Personally, if I'm speculating with my hard earned, give me Texas Hold em any day.
Haha, if I could only bet on the surf forecast, now that would be excellent!
I'd rather get fingered by wolverine than watch that day of comp again...
SNOOOREEE.
A shaved or hairy finger ACB....?
underway in average and as forecasted strong trades. but according to Potts though its going to pump at some stage.
I went all in on bet365 with Adriano for the win last night was paying $1.069cents. Glad to wake up and find he won his heat.
Dane looked good! Loved the power carves
Kelly's wave! How could that not be a 10?
Radical acceleration and technical barrel riding, big wave too. C'mon...
Agreed! Kelly looked on fire and Jay looked pretty disinterested as the heat went on
I thought so to. Amazing tube sense.
Not wishing to pre-empt anything but did that heat finally seal the fate of the banana board? Yesterday and today couldn't have contrasted more. Kelly smoked Jay on the CI.
Different waves on different days but while Kelly got one ok wave on the banana yesterday it kind of looked like lacking a bit of flow. Wanted to go up and down rather than down the line. When Kelly rides normal equipment he looks amazing but how often does he lose when he rides weirdo boards? Snapper!
I don't know, he originally ordered the Webber boards for Teahupoo, and that's the kind of wave they'd theoretically go best in: short, steep, bowly waves. Not sure why he tried to ride it on the Cloudbreak racetrack but I don't think the design can be counted out till it's used in the waves it was designed for.
True.
Short, hollow beachies in France and Portugal especially if sizey may see the design come into it's own. But for the everyday punter with a one or two board quiver, I don't think they're going to race off the shelves.
No, we'll never see a popular revival of them, they're just too particular in the type of waves they like. I reckon the board buying public might be too savvy these days. However, I'd really like to see the design work under Slater's feet.
Dane won his heat. How can that be after all that FORM analysis???
Old Bob throwing out some clickbait on a saturday
The analysis in the article was this.
"Since Reynolds quit the tour in 2011 he's been gifted 10 wildcards (Fiji will be his 11th) and reached the Quarter Finals just once. He's come last six times, scored two 13ths, one 9th, and three years ago at the 2012 Quiksilver Pro France he came second. Assuming those 10 events were in one season Dane would be hard pressed to make the cut off for the following season."
So with the re-seed of round 3 and both Aritz and Jay Davies knocked, Dane will have the No.1 ranked surfed Adriano De Souza in his next heat. The analysis says he has underachieved throughout his competitive career, and this was confirmed when he has recieved wildcards. The history suggests he will lose, but she'll be a sleepless night for the brazza. Who knows what Dane will turn up for his heat. You couldn't ask for a worst draw if you're wearing yellow
If there's plenty of waves Dane will be ON.
Great heat Jeremy and Ricardo. Shame there has to be a loser in this one.
Yeah bummer for Ric. He looks pretty good at this level now
Glad to see Dane goin ham out at cloudbreak. Great day at bet365 on the punt yesterday, got ADS (2nd round) Kelly and Dane (@$2.20 too).
She's blowing her tits off all night in Fiji but it should be bigger today. In 6-8 foot barrelling lefts I like that roughie Ottz paiyng $2.62 against Medina today. Mick loves the early at cloudy, but danger tor Parko and Wright by a nose at $1.50.
Hope its a cracking day of waves.
Check out this next heat: Parko (18.93), Owen (17.26) & Mick (16.60). William Hill aren't collecting anything in this heat. Should've unloaded the wedding account!!!
Absolutely smoking out there right now!
Italo paying $4.40 for this heat. Come on little mate.
tuned in to see Wilson absolutely blow Slater and Taj out of the water. good show. Don't know how Slater and Julian didn't meet their end at shishkebabs a few times.
The Big O: Perfect 20 heat.
Woooo......
with about 18 minutes of the heat to go. unheard of!
...and throwing out an 8.93 and 8.77!
Hottest heat ever.
Owen Wright firing up again for the Semis!
Owen's opener 7.5... setting the bar high! looking to be a great final
well that was fucking incredible!
WHAT??????
That last wave.......
Gutted.
Missed it all.
Long meeting.
Fark, gutted!
Zen I recommend you watch the replays from the Semis. the Owen vs Flores heat was really close and a good watch, and really shows the energy Owen brought through into the final.
Tubes and man turns....no Wanky air moves............what a comp.......bring back a G land WCT contest !
*LIKE*
Totally agree.
Get rid of Brazil. Get rid of one of the European legs and give us 2 x more heavy waves. Especially if they want people to start to PPV.
That was so crazy.
Well done Owen. Great to see some "real" surfing winning a surf comp.
Who backed the article and bet Owen for the win? Nice job SN.
It's not gambling when you know you're going to win right?
Think I had him as my pick, but didn't put any money down until the final.
Yes Owen!!!! Legit chased swells in Tahiti x2 and south coast. Was the pro most ready for this swell. Didn't peak at all during the comp just performed at 100% the entire time. Congrats
Andy Irons award to Ottz! Scorpioned at schizkebabs and still alive.
Viewing numbers Stu??
What an event! I think there's a few surfers who really stood up and I hope they can carry that momentum into these next few events. Flores, Wilson, Otton, Melling and of course Wright were the stand outs for me. I hope it pumps at JBAY so we can see the best from Melling. He'll probably be paying $101 again.
Yes Dark Horse for Jeffreys. Jeez though there's a heap of talent.
Hey Stu and FREE, Dane Reynolds is surfing in the US Open of surfing.
That's great Bob. I guess he just went and put in an entry form, eh?