The Punters Club: 2016 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach
The Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach is the longest standing event on the CT calendar and always seems to feature heavily in the end of year highlight reel. It's a wave that's conducive to insane power surfing and the conditions at this time of year are often ideal.
Fortunately this year’s event isn’t bucking the trend with favourable conditions forecast (read the Bells forecast here), wave size should hover around the overhead to double-overhead mark and at least a few mornings will be gifted with offshore winds.
Beware the prophets of March - it’s too early in the year to be talking title contenders, yet Snapper should've given everyone a lot of cud to chew. Once again it’s the rookies and wildcards on everyone’s minds. Stu Kennedy, Adam Melling and Sebastian Zietz are back as injury replacements. They've been joined by Mason Ho and Dusty Payne who get the green light courtesy of injuries to Filipe Toledo and Jack Freestone.
The ring-ins might be grinning under the media spotlight, however this is Bells, a wave that rewards experience and a classical approach. Consider this: Mick Fanning has surfed six finals and won four. Kelly Slater has five finals and won four. Joel Parkinson has five finals and won three.
Much like the forecast, I don't expect this trend to change; experience will win once again and it'll be earnt by a surfer taking a traditional approach to the wave.
That said, it’s been hard to choose the winner for Bells and I’ve waited until the last minute to check the forecast before making a commitment. Although Gabriel Medina and Adriano De Souza can't be discounted - both are in good form - I've gone with my gut and looked for the guys who can connect the dots when the Bowl is five foot and reeling.
The safer stable of surfers are Mick Fanning, Joel Parkinson, Taj Burrow and Kelly Slater, however it's Parko who I think has the best chance. The others all seem distracted with babies, business, or semi-retirement, while Parko has said a few things already this year that have me geed up. He also likes having the pressure off. So Parko for the win and Mick for the Final.
For the Semis and Quarters I’m gunning on a few of the other stand-out rail surfers: Jordy Smith, Conner Coffin, Nat Young, and Adriano De Souza.
I’m also putting John John Florence in the mix. If he can take his free surf form into the early rounds then watch the snowball grow.
For the roughies I’m going on form with Stu Kennedy. He may be a CT replacement but at 26 he's no deer in the headlights
Others to look out for are Ryan Callinan with an explosive backhand hack, Dusty Payne who’s looking for some 2015 redemption, and Ace Buchan with a fearless backhand in bigger waves and new aggressive hair-do. What else counts?
Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach Round 1 Match-Ups:
Heat 1: Jeremy Flores (FRA), Caio Ibelli (BRA), Davey Cathels (AUS)
Heat 2: Julian Wilson (AUS), Stuart Kennedy (AUS), Adam Melling (AUS)
Heat 3: Italo Ferreira (BRA), Kanoa Igarashi (USA), Dusty Payne (HAW)
Heat 4: Gabriel Medina (BRA), Conner Coffin (USA), Timothee Bisso (GLP)
Heat 5: Mick Fanning (AUS), Keanu Asing (HAW), Mason Ho (HAW)
Heat 6: Adriano de Souza (BRA), Michel Bourez (PYF), TBD
Heat 7: Kelly Slater (USA), Kai Otton (AUS), Alex Ribeiro (BRA)
Heat 8: Joel Parkinson (AUS), Taj Burrow (AUS), Sebastian Zietz (HAW)
Heat 9: Matt Wilkinson (AUS), Kolohe Andino (USA), Miguel Pupo (HAW)
Heat 10: Nat Young (AUS), Adrian Buchan (AUS), Ryan Callinan (AUS)
Heat 11: Josh Kerr (AUS), Wiggolly Dantas (BRA), Matt Banting (AUS)
Heat 12: John John Florence (HAW), Jordy Smith (ZAF), Jadson Andre (BRA)
Comments
Going to be interesting to see if Stu Kennedy can keep up the form he had at snapper. might be a bit of an ask with the longer swell period especially if there is some bump.
Believe he is going to ride the same model with just a bit more foam.
Also saw Kelly has a few more boards shaped and glassed and looked like he was surfing pretty good on one of them.
But im hoping for a John John win.
whats John Johns best result at bells i can't remember him dominating here at all….
kelly slater has been on fire since brazil last year!!! the judges sometimes don't score him good because possibly they expect too much that pisses me right off.
and all this talk of parko lately but he is shooting blanks….no disrespect to any of these surfers they are like 10 times better than me and my poobum stance….owe captain poobum stance one a world title last year and poobum stance one the last event….should i be putting my money on kelly or captain poobum?
Given finals day will probably be small and onshore, it's hard to see a goofy footer winning it. Don't expect a trip over to Woolamai. The banks are terrible at the moment, even by that location's epic standards.
How's Ripcurls wallet going . I wonder if it could afford to hire the spirit of tassie ferry .
How many days do they need?
I would have expected they get thing's rolling (tomorrow) Thursday and look to finish on Sunday might not be big but it looks consistent no real up a downs, swell period is good and winds are light Sat a bit stronger but still only 15 knt and more West.
Plus best days for punters.
After that I dont think there is much swell until possibly late next week?
Yeah they could park it off Winki to block the wind . Or just motor elsewhere .
God it looks bad right now, virtually flat and onshore (thursday morning), i wonder if that new swell will arrive on time looks predicted to arrive midday with a wind drop and high tide..maybe im being too optimistic but you never know could be some nice little Rincon runners latter.
Bells isn't a hard wave to surf but its a pretty hard wave to surf well...the lip can get all funky depending on the tide and it can run away from you or go burgery pretty easy if your turns aren't done in the right place...no kooks ever won bells!!
Sunday's swell has been upgraded, gonna be big, and Indo, swell is coming, Cape Sorell looking great.
Will this be another case of them finishing the comp to fall in with the Easter break rather than finishing in the best waves? ie next thurs or Friday.
A lot can change in a week, the next swell might be bigger but it also could also end up being downgraded or accompanied by bad winds, it's a risk waiting and flipping the coin especially with consistent reliable swell coming and the current pattern of light winds.
@ Craig what's your take on the late next week outlook and likely outcome, swell ad winds?
True that indo,can change a lot, but I recon swell,wind, looks ideal at this stage.
There is swell on the way for later in the week and next weekend, but could all change, so I would make the most of the coming period.
Latest update here: https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2016/03/24/rip-curl-pro-2016-updated-forecast
Does Swellnet have a WSL fantasy surfers group... or would anyone be interested? Seems like a good idea for the forum contributors who are interested in that sort of thing??
Stu Kennedy reamed on that last exchange with Julian. WSL judging true to form imo.
Yep, sure looked like it ...
stevenson got robbed so bad, much better then ADSs last wave
Hmm I dunno, was only one really good turn, the rest just average foam turns. ADS's first wrap nice and then the critical second late turn into the foam. I think it was fair.
Stu ran an article back in January about whether the Eddie was relevant anymore and should it move with the times (https://www.swellnet.com/news/surfpolitik/2016/01/28/big-wave-contests-d…). Just putting it out there but is the Rip Curl Pro at Bells relevant anymore? The comp has been going for 50+ years but we have to look that when it first started, Malibu's were being ridden. Times and boards have moved on and the reality is that Bells really is a shit mostly fat wave best suited to malibu's. Everybody complains about dumping the Rio comp for having crap waves, but should be we asking the same about dumping Bells which is a very ordinary wave ridden longer? Should Rip Curl move with the times and find a better wave in Victoria? There is one right next door, surely there are others. Really, I ask anybody who watched those six heats this morning, did those waves really get you amped?
There's no better waves in Victoria brother
I still enjoy Bells, the committed rail surfing that's needed, perfectly timed turns right up into the critical part of the lip.
It's good to have variety on tour and I'd much rather watch long lines drawn at Bells rather than the in/out and barrels at say The Box, that's boring.
Give me 6-8ft Box all day long
Dusty got robbed
Bells isn't too bad when it's solid and offshore, it adds a different kind of wave to the tour.
But when possible they should hold heats over at Winki it's so much better suited to modern surfing and its so sad that often when heats are held in fairly ordinary waves at Bells there is actually quite good waves getting surfed by free surfers including pros over at Winki.
Im with Craig the in out barrels of the box get boring pretty quick.
Bells bores me to tears. I guess when it gets 8-10 feet it is good viewing but otherwise it is a fat wave that sees little innovation on the wave face by the surfers. Margarets also bores me as does Rio.
Can't believe people get bored watching the box. Watching ridiculous drops and throaty barrels and guys shit themselves is what pro surfing needs if they want to attract viewers and sponsorship $$. Barely anyone gives a shit about a bloke doing turn after turn after turn followed by wiggling around on the fat section followed by another turn.
Bells is a great wave when conditions are right. Shouldn't have ran it this morning. There is easily enough better days coming to run both men's and women's. Again it seems it's about putting on a bit of a show for the public, sponsors etc etc.
problem is a world title is on the line. And also makes for average viewing.
Every one needs to dry there eyes out!
Bells is a great wave! It picks up the most swell on the Surfcoast there is 4 different takeoff zones and if you surf it your self you pull off before the fat stuff after the bowl.
Thanks Zen was about the first heat I watched and turned it off after that. Still wouldn't have progressed but I thought he would have had a full point on that wave of Wilsons
Always fun to watch John Florence surf, but good to see him surf smarter, strategic heats so far this year
Can't believe captain poobum just got knocked out he was surfing good looked like he had the joint dialed in.
Desouza ,a gentleman and gracious loser .
im going to put my money on nat young @15/1 thats great value...and goofy stance is killing it this comp.