Gabriel Medina can win the world title in Portugal
It's the time of year when the mathematics wizard becomes the oracle of pro surfing. Never mind heat strategy or judging criteria, he who can add up the numbers shall be listened to.
It all gets a bit confusing when, instead of a straight run to the finish line, each surfer drops their two worst results.
Confusing to predict, that is. It's dead simple come the end of the season.
At present only 320 points separates Gabriel Medina in first and Felipe Toledo in second, while Julian Wilson is 4,325 points back in third. It's one of the closest title races in years, however Gabs' consistency - his worst place is a 13th - means he has a mathematical chance of winning the title at Portugal.
The breakdown is as follows:
- Gabriel Medina, Filipe Toledo, and Julian Wilson are the three World Title contenders
- Going into Portugal only Gabriel Medina can clinch the title; Toledo and Wilson can only win it in Hawaii
- If Medina finishes first in Portugal, Toledo will need a ninth or better and Wilson a third or better to take the World Title to Hawaii
- If Gabriel Medina finishes second or worse in Portugal, the World Title race will go to Hawaii
Amongst the trio, it's hard to find a favourite at Portugal as each of them has won the contest: Jules in 2012 (beating Gabs in the final); Toledo in 2015; and Gab is the defending champion (he beat Jules in the final). Nor does the forecast clearly favour any surfer with mid-range swell easing over the first dew days generally accompanied by northerly winds, which blow cross/sideshore - think lots of ramps and an air wind.
Also in the main event draw are the two wildcards, Samuel Pupo and Miguel Blanco, plus Miguel Pupo, Wiggolly Dantas, Ryan Callinan, and Vasco Ribeiro, who are replacing the injured quartet of Slater, John John, Caio Ibelli, and Parko.
Comments
Let's hope Gabs is a bit more respectful on the podium this time when Jules smokes him.
you love gabs
Don't get why our top Aussie surfers are so friendly with these Brazilians, has to be fake, unless its just the PC brigade has crept in, or they have never had to deal with 10 turning up and taking over the break and hassling and dropping in on everyone lol.
And Robbo from memory, Gabbies step dad made the arsehole comment that they were not in the WCT to make friends, just to win - absolute dickhead. The guy has a chip on his shoulder the size of Brazil and Gab has to bear it so you can see why he is a bit weird. Seen plenty of these pricks at junior footy, in fact nearly had fisticuffs with their win at all costs mentality. Steve Smith knows all about this I am sure.
For a second there I thought the man of the moment king Slup...I mean SUP had joined the forum. That photo is too funny.
I called Flip at the beginning of the season to be the champ and I'll stick to it. Be stoked if either Julian or Fillipe win though, both are deserving.
As much as I admire his surfing, i just can't warm to Gabs in any way. I'm with Maddog, I hope Jules smokes him.
Looks like that may not happen for Felipe after today.
Looks like that Lanky, but you gotta take a stand sometimes.
Farkin' Medina, phenomenal surfer but just so... (insert expletive)
I hope Felipe wins it i like his surfing better and he just seems to have a better attitude ..as Zen put it so well "i just can't warm to Gabs in any way"
Julian is not as far behind as it seems thanks to that consistency of Medina’s. At this stage Gabe is throwing away 3280 more points than Julian (a 9th v a 25th) and it stays that way if they both do ok at the last two events. The difference can be as little as 1 heat. If Julian can muster a quarter and a 2nd, and Gabe a quarter and a 3rd, then Julian will win 57585 to 57235. (Also if Toledo buckles)
It’s closer than it looks
-EDIT-
Ok I better add in Toledo’s numbers now I see he won his rd2 heat while I was asleep. He is the most interesting, and on throw aways is actually in front of Medina! (This is assuming their last two results stay equal or above Medina’s throwaway of a 9th)
So if Toledo matches Medina in these last two events, with a quarter and a semi, then he finishes on 58950, and wins the title.
Again, it’s closer than it looks.
Medina’s strength is he can afford a bad result and still win. My speculation is totally based on strong finishes by all. A failure in either event will almost certainly end the season for Julian and Toledo
They should just get rid of the throw aways next year.!
All or nothing !
Well said SD.
How about this one ..
If GM gets a 9th & 2nd and FT gets a 9th & 3rd they end up on the same points.
What happens then? (assuming JW hasn't bagged a 2nd & 3rd or better and won the title!)
Do they really end up on the same points? God all those funny points scores ending in 5 I thought were meant to protect from that. They have a surf off I think? That’d be kind of a must watch heat!
Does anyone else think its gabby's or julian's ?
Toledo .....no chance ......not come pipeline anyway.
With that scenario I'm pretty sure they end up with the same number of 1st's thru to 9th's
This stuff is more complex than the Black-Scholes model of option pricing. Well done shoredump for understanding it
I hope Medina wins it. Not just because it’d piss a lot of people off, but because he’s a phenomenal surfer.
I love Toledo’s surfing too, and he seems like a good dude, but somehow can’t see him taking it.
And just to sound like a complete mess, there’ll be no complaints if Julian wins either.
I was all for medina winning , then I actually watched the replay with Ryan cal/ medina.
I'm surprised after that the WSL didn't implement the excessive hassling rule against median.
The WSL just keeps getting worse....what happened to pro surfing . It's really sad.
Just so good to see Jules in with a chance when everyone including me had written him off as not hungry enough.
Medina isn't going to win it in Portugal its going to go to pipe
You may be correct, but the one thing medina isn't doing is winning anymore fans with that excessive hassling/ Interference crappp..... not into it . He's as bad as Robert !
Shit winning i think you would call it !
IMO the bottom line regarding the Medina hassling scenario is that he’s clearly doing it within the rules. Can’t really blame him. He’s one of those few athletes that are willing to win at all costs, within the rules. It happens in every sport at the elite level. I agree that it’s a terrible look for the WSL. I would much rather see them surfing than hassling like that. The rules need to be changed to stamp it out.
agree
I’m not so sure. In the seconds leading up to the incident Ryan made several attempts to move away from Medina. Medina paddled into Ryan once more as the wave came then waived his hand in the air claiming Ryan stopped him from catching the wave. It was obvious dishonesty and that lie is the crux of my argument. It’s very similar to a soccer dive, and gaining a penalty for it.
Shit Winning Medina.
Given the judges have access to replays before posting a score, I can only assume they watched a replay of the “interference” & called it accordingly. However if your right and what Medina did was equivalent to a “dive” then he should penalised for sure. Such a bad look alround.
Medina is an amazing surfer, sadly however you can shine a star but you can not polish a turd. I reckon win at all cost surfing is ugly surfing ,,,,shit winning in dead
Medina is a incredible surfer but has a terrible attitude
Toledo is a incredible surfer has a better attitude than Medina but is a wuss and not worthy to be called the best in the world
Julian is an incredible surfer and has a great attitude and charges, worthy world champ
Fully agree with prothero comment, you cant polish a turd...
...but you can roll it in glitter
So what am i going to do for the next 8 weeks waiting for the pipe masters?
World champ already....damn you dirk and your tampering ways.