Qualification: Crunching the numbers before the World Cup
Over the weekend the penultimate comp of the Qualification Series (QS) finished. Not only was the Hawaiian Pro the second last comp of the year, it was also the second last chance to get big points; there are only five 10,000 point comps on the QS and the Hawaiian Pro and the upcoming World Cup are two of them.
As usual, the top ten surfers of the QS will jump up to the 2019 Championship Tour, but if a top ten surfer has also qualified on the CT then the next QS surfer- i.e the 11th surfer - will get the spot. If two surfers double qualify then the 12th, three surfers double qualify then the 13th etc.
The cut off for qualification changes year by year. Last year it was relatively low at 16,040, the year before that 18,750, and in 2015 it was 20,450.
This year is shaping up to be another low qualifying year. WSL numbers guy Al Hunt has pegged it as somewhere between 15,000 and 17,000.
Using the top number, 17,000, then there are already seven surfers qualified:
Two of those surfers, Igarashi and Colapinto, will double qualify which opens up the field (the DQs also partly explain the lower cut off mark this year).
The next group of surfers need a moderate result to make the cut. All of them are holding decent points down to their fifth best result so they'll need to get 17th (2,200) or higher just to improve their overall points. Keep in mind that if they don't improve their standings then they'll be overtaken.
Interestingly, all of them are ex-CTers looking to requalify.
From here south is where things get desperate. These are the surfers that need a big result to make it, at the upper end a 9th place (3,800 points) might just get them over the line, but for all of them a 5th place (5,300) or higher is required to lock it off.
Of course with so many points on offer for making the Final - 1st 10,000, 2nd 8,000, 3rd 6,500, 4th 6,300 - there's always a chance of big jumps up the ratings. For instance, Mateus Herdy jumped 49 places to 12th for his second place finish on the weekend.
So while anyone in the top 50 could win the World Cup and collect enough points to qualify, there'll only ever be one or two big movers at best.
The other point of interest is that there are fewer low end CT surfers fighting for qualification than past years. Jesse Mendes is the highest ranked surfer outside of the CT top 22, and he's in 13th on the QS.
There may be a late surge but many struggling CT surfers have left their QS charge too late.
Comments
Ever thought to interview Al Hunt ?
No, but I imagine he'd a be a good interviewee.
When I was editing Kurungabaa we ran a story on his surf magazine collection (surf magazine addiction?). That was an enjoyable read. Written by Paul Scott from memory.
Here's Al's website: https://allsurfmagazines.com/
Wow that's a crazy collection!
Would Mikey Wright have enough points from all his CT wildcard slots to qualify?
Yeah, he's in the CT fairly easily. Currently sitting 12th and approx 10,000 points ahead of the top 22 cut off mark.
Awesome. The tour needs a bit of personality!
Worth noting that Griffin Colapinto is likely going to miss Pipe due to injury. Currently sitting at 20th on the CT, its a high possibility he'll have to fall back on his QS placing. Whoever comes 12th on the WQS will probably not want to buy Griffin a beer any time soon.
Good point.
That's what the injury wild card is for - not for a flog like Jelly who won't commit to surfing all the events anyway.
Kelly deserves injury wildcard. All these sooks whinging about kelly this kelly that. That’s one fucked up foot he got
Jack Robbo to win Sunset and end up with 16,940 points...and just make the cut.
Is there a surf fan out there who doesn't want this to happen?
Ricardo, Parko, O'neill Massin and Jack Robbo in the final at Sunset, please.
Jack to win it and qualify, Ricardo second to improve his CT '19 seed, Joel third cementing his Triple Crown position.
Too much to ask?
Not at all, I think just about every surf fan in the southern hemisphere would be happy with that.
Stoked for Ric, super positive family fella deserves another crack.
Given that most of Brazil is in the Southern Hemisphere, I'm not sure you'd get everyone on board for that scenario. I'd like to see it though...
yep, I thought that Ricardo Christie surfed and competed better than his results showed in his last CT stint - he either matched up against an opponent who was having a dream day or paid dearly for rookie strategy errors, but his surfing was tight.
Totally agree. While not as hifi as the lightweights he wasn't let down by his surfing, just little strategic slips that left him relying on luck.
His Jbay heat was epic against Parko who surfed like a god. Ric be e a good punt to win a few heats second time round. Go the Kiwis!
Ric would do well to watch what Wade Carmichael did right this year. Similar surfers, same strengths, same weaknesses.
Sounds good. Just add Jelly Slater to go out in the first round, blame the judges then take the stage to say he help all four and then announce he is going to compete until 2030 - when he feels like and only if the waves are really really good.
Sounds like some kelly haters on here haha. I smell jealousy about smelly skaters ability to do what’s best for him
I'd love to see Parko take out the triple crown again. There's too many dudes with the "air poo-stance" on the tour at the moment. Parko's style on the other hand never gets old. As for Ricardo qualifying again, there's nothing quite like watching a bid dude lay down some power carves. I can't wait to see him at Bells and J-Bay. Hopefully Margs is still on.
Parko for the triple crown and J Wilson for the world title going head to head with Parko in the final at pumping Pipe.
For sure! I'd vote for that.
100% yes give us that Huey
Al Hunt on Swellnet? I'll believe it when I see it ........
Is that cryptic , BB ?
If he was on here , I could think of one person who would fit the mental profile I have of the man .
One of my favourite posters !
Not cryptic Blowin. I wish Stu luck if he goes there. I wouldn't.
Is he not a fan of the Swellnet carry on ?
Put it this way, he still hasn't forgiven me for comments I made 40 years ago. So I suspect Swellnet's analysis of WSL figures may have upset him ...... but he does share Stu's enthusiasm for magazines, so maybe.
Thanks for the article, Stu.
Where did you get the figures from? I've been trying find more info the last few days, and looked up Al Hunt, but without luck.
Which figures IB? The predicted cut off...?
Yes, sorry. The predicted cut off.
That's from Al. Just emailed him, as I always do at this time of year, and he replied with his assumed cut off.
Mikey Wright also qualifies through his CT points right?
And geez, love to see Jack Robbo make it on tour
Yep, he's qualified easily. Sitting in 12th, approx 10,000 points above 23rd place (being CT cut off)
Hey Stu, Thanks for everything you input. I can't keep away from the site. Just wondering what your profile picture is. Me and a few mates have been debating and no one knows. Very mysterious. Looks like a dude holding a katana sword??
I think you may find the answer if you Google "London Calling" by the Clash.
Blackers is on it...
Thanks fellas. That is so satisfying to now know the answer.
i'd like to see Parko take out the triple crown and see Ricardo back on tour.
i'd also like to see Ethan Ewing get another crack at the CT.
Am I the only one who’d rather see Jack Robbo free surfing heavy tubes around the world than grovelling on the tour?
With wildcards to all the heavy wave events and taking down all the seeds.
I'm half with you GF...I'd also like to see him towel everyone up at maxing North Point, Chopes and Pipe too.
Yeah that would be good viewing
My wild wildcard is Donny Atkinson to win in big Sunset to bookend his CT rookie of the year finish when he possibly should have been given an injury wildcard anyways. But then I don’t know a heck of alot, just speculamacating.
Gary can't help but think that Kelly may have left his qualification run on the QS a little too late to earn a slot on next year's tour
They’re giving kelly injury wildcard for sure. Does anyone remember AI getting wildcards to every event after his little drug binge break? Even if he doesn’t get injury wildcard they should give him a wildcard to any event he wants. Who doesn’t like watching the king surf?
"Who doesn’t like watching the king surf?"
Me.
Not anymore.
Not in a contest.
Yeah Ricardo!! Mahia Massive!
Can anyone explain how Jack Robbo got a 13th place and 3600 points and Jake Marshall got a 9th place and 3800 points when Jack was third and Jake was 4th after an interference? Weird. Jack is now sitting on 7540 points and a win at Sunset should hopefully see him qualify. He's won it before. Go WA lad.
They fixed it. Jack now 9th and Jake 13th. Maybe someone read your post.
Ricardo for the win
Is it just me, or does Wilko need to have a blinder at Pipe to avoid heading back to the QS grind
Not just you. There's a good chance Wilko will be joining Mick and Mason on the Search next year.
So hypothetically if Parko wins pipe and gets into the top 22 and retires, do they take an extra QS or and extra CT?
Great question - imo should be a CT, calling Stu?
Good to see a Kiwi in there! How long has it been since another Kiwi was in there?
Maz Quinn 2001. Ric Christie 2015.
Any other young kids coming through IB? Other than Billy who came sort of close a few times but never really threatened.
Maybe Kehu Butler:
Pretty powerful for his age.
Yep, looks like that dude has the goods. The only problem is that there are about 400 other surfers in the world surfing to that standard at the moment. The advantage Ricardo has is that his power-game is well suited to Haleiwa and Sunset, so he gets a good crack at qualification at the end of each year.
I'm hoping they give Michael February a wild-card. He's the heir apparent to Parko in the style stakes. Kind of a modern day Buttons I reckon. Pretty much my favourite surfer on the tour at the moment.
I like watching Michael February freesurfing, but he's hopelessly out of his league on the CT. Unique style, though.
Parko is deceptively powerful, and has perfect technique.
Early Christmas wish list:
Parko for triple crown
Jack Robbo to qualify
Stoked to see Ricardo back on the CT, and hoping for a strong Sunset result to bump his seeding up. He'll do well next year. Btw Stu, as a reporter/editor, I'm used to see our material being re-purposed and re-used by other publications but thought you might be interested in this piece out today - look familiar? https://www.tracksmag.com.au/news/who-needs-what-to-qualify-for-the-201…
Alex unWorkmanlike