Tahiti Pro Teahupoo Early Forecast
For the punters who bay for blood, Teahupo 2019 may be a case of so close yet so far.
For the first time since 2014 a significant swell will fall inside the waiting period, however it'll be inside the waiting period for the Trials, not the main event.
There's a little confusion as to when the Trials will be held: Tahiti tourism says 15-17th, while Chris Cote is saying 16-18th in the latest Surf Breaks vlog. Either way, there's a large swell due on the 17th, right in the middle of this period.
Running just ahead of this swell is a mid-period southwest swell will fill in on Thursday the 15th, building to 4-6ft through the afternoon and then easing from a similar size on Friday morning.
Saturday the 17th is when the aforementioned swell will hit, likely pushing sets into the tow-only range, making it too big for the Trials which are paddle only but great viewing for those in the channel. This swell is being generated by a deep and powerful low that's formed off New Zealand's East Coast.
A fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds will be projected towards the island, with core wind speeds reaching storm-force around the lows centre. The storm is forecast to project towards and then south of Tahiti with strength, producing a large, long-period and consistent SW groundswell for Saturday the 17th. This will be under a strong and pronounced node of the Long Wave Trough, the same one responsible for all the snow and cold weather across south-eastern Australia over the weekend.
With the long-period and west nature of the swell, it will be too big and heavy to paddle, coming in around the 12ft range, if not for the odd bigger cleanup. Conditions will be great as well with moderate to fresh E/NE-E trades.
If the trials window extends into Sunday the 18th, this will be the day to run them with clean, pumping and easing surf from the 8ft range as the swell tends a little more south-southwest in direction and drops in period.
Looking towards the main event (kicking off Wednesday the 21st), and the node of the LWT responsible for the trials swell will weaken and mobilise slowly east, with an upper ridge moving in behind it as another strong node develops across south-eastern Australia.
This isn't ideal at all with, with a couple of flukey swells sources on the cards for the first few days of the waiting period (3ft range) from weak fronts south-east of New Zealand, followed by mid-latitide cut-off lows under the influence of the ridge.
A slightly better S/SW groundswell may be seen to build on day three/four of the waiting period, but one of the aforementioned mid-latitude lows is forecast to develop to the south of the islands, bringing onshore winds out of the south along with a building, close-range mid-period S/SW swell. This doesn't leave too many options to run the competition through the first half of the waiting period.
The longer term outlook is a touch more positive though not great, with the strong node of the Long Wave Trough forming across south-eastern Australia early next week forecast to push slowly east and over New Zealand later next week. As it continues east into a position ideal for Tahiti it's forecast to weaken and become more zonal, which isn't great for swell production, but we'll keep a close eye on this over the coming week.
Comments
Code red trials,
Two foot main event.
Come on wossell
Shake up the format......... ..
completely right, LD. they appear happy to make changes (e.g. get rid of cloudbreak and trestles, re-introduce indo), but not the changes that actually matter (i.e. more flexibility in scheduling - similar to the BWWT; and smaller field or more sudden death for a two-day format). i can't help feeling dirff zik is going to do the sums one day and just pull the pin
This is not the first time the trials got pumping waves before a lame main event forecast. Pretty sure anyways.
Can't be too hard to push the trials fwd. a couple of days & start the main event in 8ft paddle in Teahupoo waves can it? What a spectacle & promo($$$$) that would be for the WSL. Who runs this show anyway, obviously not the surfers?
That swell is peaking here at the moment, as seen from my lounge, cuppa in hand after a smoking surf.
Faaaark me!!!
Pumping
Aww Bro , that’s a mean as batch you’ve got there eh , cuz.
Broooo!
How was Japan ?
???
Quote from the movie "Boy" kiwi flick, well worth a look
Ah, it's been a while.
Good pickup
I like a good movie line, that ones a classic
Geez that it cranking. Is anywhere surfable with that size swell as it is dead offshore?
We have our spots. ;-)
So take Owen and out of my fantasy and replace with a Brazilian that can pop an air rev on 2ft mush.
Think I'll watch the trials, tune out for the main event.
Yep, as Island Bay has mentioned it's farken' pumping here today. Probably the most lined up big swell so far this year. The period went through the roof around 1pm here. I guess it'll take a few days to make its way up to Tahiti but when it does it's gonna be fireworks up there.
Spud! Back on a forum?!? Hope all's well. And yeah clean as a whistle here also, really looking forward to see what it does in the topics!
Battery.
Can't believe it just died (the old forum).
Was K holding, or too big?
Glad it died, wasted far too much time on it!
K to big...
Good times on that old forum aye. It was like the Wild West at the start aye.
How big would you call those waves Island Bay? Double storey?
The rock out the back is about 10m high. Huge (guessing 7-10m faces).
For some perspective, it's 300m from our place to the white house, and 700m from there to the wave.
The best surfers on the best waves, not if the WSL has anything to do with it
Is that a surf spot IB?
As far as it's surf spot status goes, Spuddups and IB are the only people I know who have ever even attempted to surf it. It's possible others have but word usually gets around pretty quickly. In certain swells and certain angles it looks more possible but usually by the time it reaches the size threshold required to make it more than a quick ride down to a long stretch of dry reef the other consequences of screwing it up become pretty intense. We all had a good laugh a few years back when it was included in a NZ surf guide based off an impressive photo. It even included information about favourable conditions for the break, although at that stage no one had been known to surf it, an awesome piece of fabrication.
As IB said if you were seriously keen to take it on you would probably need all of the the provisions he talked about or a reckless disregard for your own life.
When it's this big, you could surf it if you had:
-loads of courage
-real big wave skills
-a skilled partner on a jet ski
-make that two skilled partners on skis
You can see the dry reef on the inside. Avoid at all cost.
Spuddups and I have both attempted it much much smaller, and it's alternately super shallow and very deep. And then that inside reef. Huge, and it might just be doable, but I would only ever contemplate towing it.
So to answer your question, yeah nah, possibly maybe.
Yeah, I paddled over there once when it was about half that size. Took off on a wave, made it to the bottom then ended up on the rocks. That was enough for me.
fucks sake. Chopes is a waste of time. they never get good waves for the comp. Axe it and bring back cloudbreak.
Yep tough call needs to be made, scrap it or have a floating waiting period. When was the last time we got proper Chopes, the Kelly JJF semi final year?
That's one thumping swell hitting Wellywood Island Bay! Any lines wrapping into Seatoun that day?!!
Didn't check - too busy elsewhere - but don't quite think it had enough size.
The WSL couldn't organise a meat tray in an abattoir. Bring back Fiji and pair it with Chopes with a 24 day waiting period. It's very rare that both places are going to be crap at the same time in winter. This lack of mobility and fixed waiting periods results in 1-2 comps in good to great waves, 3-4 comps in average surf, and 5-7 in poor surf. It's just not working.
I agree the WSL need to do something, arguing about a point here or there for threading a 50m 3ft tube gets pretty tedious.
Yep not much of contest wave unless it is a death sentence.
Umm biggest ever cloudbreak comin up ...??
does anybody know who will be competing in the trials? or if it will be streamed? i cant seem to find much info on it...
I would also like to know if it is being streamed? Anyone?
https://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/polynesie/trials-auront-lieu-samedi-17-a…
cheers!
Some heavy hitters in that list, trials could be more entertaining than the main event!
The dream tour has become a joke , if snapper isn’t held in February or March dont bother just can it , portugal is usually a close out , brasil is usually a two manoeuvre wave , Kelly’s wave pool sends me to sleep after 2 waves . WSL claims to be for the environment but now are switching from kremas to G-Land ! What sought of footprint will that leave ? The whole WSL tour needs a overhaul and complete change in direction, unless it’s pumping it’s a boring sport to watch with terrible commentary that dribbles on trying to “ entertain us “ it can be as boring and slow as test cricket. Maybe less events with longer waiting periods and a change in format needs to happen. One event in Hawaii and 3 in Australia is weird and why not start the year at pipeline in February and finish at sunset in December ? I remember when P.T. Won a world title with out winning a contest , l hope andino does the same to show everyone how flawed the world tour is.
^Fark man, how dare you blacken the good name of Test Cricket by comparing it to WSL!
looks like something semi decent at the end of the waiting period
Trials not running today. Too hairy..
WSL Facebook page currently has live video.
Hmm. The Tahitian commentators said it was off. They might just be running live freesurf.
Sorry, live free surf.
Hows the size of the tow in wave...stab insta
So much bigger than anything else I've seen. Freak bomb.
forey looks a bit brighter now ......mixed grill , not gourmet but enough to get the job done.
The cuisine is much more to Fili's tastes.
Trials running today by the looks on the link provided above posts...
What’s the latest forecast?
Yeah was thinking the same thing greyhound, mustn’t be good cause WSL haven’t said anything
Will have an update tomorrow guys, there's a better swell now on the cards for the the middle of the waiting period, but before that average swells.
Pretty much dead flat here at the moment which isn't a good sign for Tahiti. Looks like a decent swell for the middle of next week onwards though.
Cheers Craig!