The (Un)Official Olympic Forecast - Four Days to Go
As we get closer to the opening day of competition for the Tokyo Olympics - Sunday the 25th - we've got a clearer idea of what's in story for the inaugural surfing event. While the Australian team arrive only a few days before the event kicks off, giving them little time to get accustomed to the local surf, other nations are dividing their warm up sessions between Tsurigasaki and the new Japanese wave pool.
As forecast, Typhoon In-Fa is currently doing its thing, tracking across the southern extend of the Okinawa Prefecture but our attention is drawn to a second Typhoon which is forecast to develop south-east of Honshu this weekend.
Satellite pass of the current synoptic setup this morning. Source: Zoom.Earth
When it does form, it'll be named Nepartak, originating from the name of a Kosrae warrior (a Micronesian island). The warrior Typhoon, quite apt for the Olympics, is a tricky one with a forecast trajectory taking it from Tsurigasaki's far south-eastern swell window to its most northern, all within two days.
This all looks to take place through the weekend and Monday morning, with Nepartak clearing the swell window by Monday evening.
We've still got some divergence regarding the speed and track of Nepartak, but we'll most likely see a rapid increase in east-southeast tending easterly swell through Sunday afternoon, which is the first day of competition, but with onshore NE winds, likely peaking Monday from the east-northeast as winds shift from NW to SW as Tsurigasaki falls under the south-western flank of the Typhoon.
Bumpy, building surf to the 4-5ft range is likely on Sunday afternoon, likely peaking Monday to a great 6ft with those offshore winds. The swell will then ease rapidly Tuesday as winds persist from the SW.
Great snapshot of Typhoon Nepartak, however it moves very fast through Tsurigasaki's swell window
Sandbanks and other local issues notwithstanding, this should allow for three days of respectable surf conditions, though any stalling of Nepartak will delay the shift to offshore winds Monday along with moving the peak in swell back more towards Monday afternoon/Tuesday.
Once Nepartak moves off to the north-west through the middle of the week, it may drag in further instability, providing small surf out of the east into the end of the waiting period.
With this outlook we may see the event wrapped up in the initial four days of the waiting period. The caveat here is that with a Typhoon in the mix, conditions are prone to rapid change so there's a chance organisers may seek to hold off and run it in (potentially) more settled conditions at the end of the waiting period.
All in all it adds up to some exciting weather watching in the lead up to the event. Keep an eye on the comments below for running updates.
Chiba East 16-day Forecast Graph
Chiba East 16-day Forecast WAMs
Comments
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Very strange that while there must be a l bunch of surfers at Chiba already, the only surfing clips I’ve seen are at the pool.
I’m all for surfing in all kinds of conditions but geez that taking small wave surfing to a different level of small. That’s friggin tiny.
I call it rubbish/desperate/have a look tomorrow.
And if the predicted typhoon wasn't warming up, this would be the conditions for the entire comp.
That is dire!
You could say "Yeah I busted an air and it was twice as high as the wave," and people would be like ooooooooo
The skateboarding should be good.
Can't believe they might actually strike gold with a typhoon. What's the chances! Shame they can't be mobile but should at least be interesting now. Great work on the forecast.
"Can't believe they might actually strike gold with a typhoon."
Haha they deserve a medal if they do?
And yea great work as always Craig.
Ahhh very nice Westofthelake. ha
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0921.gif
Going, going.....gone
Supports my theory that professional surfers attract waves.
How many days do they need to wrap this thing up?
Owen & Sally for gold
Four days from an eight day window.
Sounds like a lot of heats.
Carissa was on the Japanese news reading a pre-written statement but her pronunciation and intonation was really impressive.
Reason no clips have dropped is because it's been flat. Barely knee high for a week. They should get pretty good surf next week though. Definitely contestable anyway.
Been there and done that - not an easy task. Very admirable just having a go. Nice work Carissa.
kolohe surfing a wave like I surf a lot on the sunny coast. it looks pretty ripable to me. if I don't surf that size, then I don't surf a lot. its always a fun challenge to surf that size and it keeps u fit and in the water when there are no other options
And from time to time it’s interesting to see what the best in the world can make of slop ... forces me to stop blaming the waves, my board, my age, my luck .... and forces me to get on with making the most of what’s there
Well, you definitely do have to have the right board to make anything of this slop.
The typhoon swell could be good at a few set ups on the southern islands....
Goto 五島市 via Fukue Regional Airport (FKA) 福江空港（五島つばき空港）
https://www.fukuekuko.jp/
No sponsor stickers allowed on boards?
(Are you guys doing a similar article or something?)
No, we just don't appreciate links to our competition.
Thought it was relevant/interesting, all good, noted.
Points of order:
1) In ten years we'll all look back at photos like this and wonder WTF we were thinking. I mean, just take the damn masks off for the three seconds the photographer snaps the shot.
2) Or if they REALLY can't take the mask off, then at least put one on the Boxing Kangaroo.
3) Speaking of the Boxing Kangaroo, a cursory glance appears to show it growing horns, though closer observation shows Sal - god bless her - throwing a sly shaka on the roo's head. Can't help herself.
My first thought was "gee that bloke in the back is tall!"
Then I realised he was standing on a chair.
At first glance I thought this was the remedial class at Hogwarts.......
Got to love the surf team living up to the archetype.... no shoes... no shirt..... NO DICCEEEE
Go Aussies !!!!
olympic boxing kangaroo shakas ftw
I hear you on that- masks in photos, it's just fucking stupid.
I'm involved in education and there's a whole group of kids that are missing out on really important childhood development. In particular, those in the first couple of years of kindy where it's essential to see a teachers mouth forming words in addition to facial expressions and other non-verbal cues. There's children going through early learning here that have never seen their teachers face.
And the administrators seem totally oblivious to that fact. It does my head in.
Not sure where you are, but none of the educators at my daughter's childcare or son's kindergarten are required to wear masks, even during the lockdowns, for this reason and others.
I live in Japan.
It will be interesting to see how certain age groups turn out or differ due to situations like this. Babies, very young not passed around/socialised, teens missing out on years of normality/partying etc.
Problem solved Zen
https://www.theclearmask.com/product
How's the footwear Stu?
Bit of everything, eh?
Though I'm more impressed with the crumpled blazers and the fresh-out-of-the-box polo worn by the chap on the far left.
The only matching apparel in the photo are the masks.
Ties outside the jackets pair well with the crumpled look too.
You'd at least have thought that Owen would have swapped blazers with the fella on the far right.
Ha!
Amiright?
What a comedy act!
Anywhere that we'll be able to watch all of the Olympic heats live? Assume the major TV networks will just show highlights.
7+ app should have every event and heat live (I think).
bit of a downgrade?
The models are still struggling on the track and distance of the typhoon in regards to Japan.
GFS is a lot smaller, cleaner and less than ideal, EC is still solid but more onshore. A tricky one as it'll continue to be right until it develops.
A few small lines around here this morning. Still small but definitely groundswell.
Waves are on the way.
Meanwhile further south, Typhoon Infa has been delivering since Tuesday.
Can see tiny lines on the Shidashita beach cam. Anywhere other than 7+ where we can see it?
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1121.gif
Land of Groynes
https://twitter.com/hashtag/OLYMPICGAMESofSURFING?src=hashtag_click
Surf was fun today.
Hopefully better tomorrow.
Nice, the models have come in more towards EC, but not entirely and we'll see building swell tomorrow with freshening onshore winds, becoming stronger Monday with the peak in size. The surf on Tuesday looks great, smaller and offshore for the rest of the period.
looks like it dissipates just off the coast from Tokyo.
4 Athletes and how many micro managers, the Australian way!
Geez if this is the best the surf gets there you'd have to wonder how the hell they were going to run a competition if the typhoon didn't create this swell?
Looks like Balmoral beach…looks sharky as too…
Ha, classic NE windswell with a NW change after rain at Manly eh Pete!
Yeah I dunno, looks more like the inner harbour, Balmoral beach to be specific circa 1970s…bull-sharky as to boot. Look how quickly the whitewash dissipates. It rolls in soft, sucks up below sea level then vanishes.
Owen Wright!!!! Into the Semi-Final. 75% chance of a medal now. C'mon Owen!!!
All this time I thought it was going to be held in a wave pool