Forecast Update: MEO Portugal Pro
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Since we wrote the Early Forecast, the outlook for the Meo Portugal Pro has improved with the North Atlantic Ocean beginning to fizz and pop.
The first storm of interest is currently spawning off the Newfoundland coast; it's a dual low that set's to combine and 'bomb' south of Greenland this evening. A 'bombing' low is one which drops 24hPa or more within a 24 hour period, causing a significant strengthening of the storm.
Before the low 'bombs' an initial fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds will be projected rapidly east through Portugal's western swell window - see image below. This will be followed by a more significant fetch of storm to hurricane-force W/NW winds in Portugal's north-western swell window, with back to back pulses of groundswell due to arrive during the first few days of the waiting period.
Keep in mind the contest waiting period begins Thursday, 3rd March.
The first pulse of W/NW swell energy should build strongly through Thursday, the first day of the waiting period, but with poor, cross-onshore N/NW winds.
Friday will see the peak in longer-period NW groundswell providing surf to 8ft+ at Supertubos with gusty N/NE tending moderate N/NW winds. The size is there, the early morning offshore is too, but a question mark hangs over whether Supertubos can handle that much energy. If it's not too unruly, Friday could be the first day of competition - and it should be good viewing.
The swell will ease steadily through Saturday and gently get more ordered, however, of most interest is a trough that will bring a fresh S'ly change followed by variable winds into the afternoon. Timing of the change is important: If it arrives early we may see competition run with improving conditions and easing surf from the 6ft range.
A secondary pulse of NW groundswell is due into Sunday from an intense low firing up in the central Atlantic Ocean on Friday. It'll be short-lived but another strong kick to 6ft+ is expected across Supertubos, easing into the afternoon. Conditions look great with a moderate N/NE tending fresh N'ly breeze. Monday will be slightly smaller with morning offshore winds ahead of sea breezes.
Following these swells there'll be a few down days before another storm track sets up across the North Atlantic. This is forecast to spawn multiple cold fronts and storms which will be projected towards Europe, producing a run of large stormy surf from next Thursday through Saturday, possibly cleaning up on the final day of the waiting period.
We'll continue to monitor developments.
Click for the Supertubos Forecast and WAMs.
Comments
Footage from ST taken two days ago. After the drama of Pipe and complexity of Sunset, Supertubos is a pretty straightforward wave.
I reckon Supertubes is a pretty average location for a comp. They hardly ever seem to get it proper good. Everyone I know who's been to Portugal reckons it pumps. Surely there's another more reliable spot to hold the comp.
It does get good the banks naturally form peaks not sure how big it can hold I only saw at 4 foot and it was really good.
Woohoo!! Sick forecast. 8foot plus Supertubos will not be boring viewing. Mamiya for back to back wins. Yew!
I 'm with you Spuddups. Supertubes can be all time but pretty random . Must be financial. So many better waves close to this area will handle swell with form . Must be a lot of happy peniche locals jumping in their cars,
It’s pretty firing right now on the Surfline cam by the looks
Not a fan of supertubos especially when you consider only a hour or two away you
have Coxos catches all the available swell, holds a really solid big wave with a steep sucky
take off, barrels galore with nice stand up sections which you can just go to town on
and the trade wind dosent make it a slop fest infact its on the verge of a world glass
wave with lots of power and challenging even for pros and to top it off its a natural
amphitheatre for spectators, no brainer. Portugal unlimited waves, friendly people,
great atmosphere wonderful country would love to return.
Swell direction is "mighty" important for the outcome of great waves at "Super tubos".
Swell period also a factor, they could even run a few heats against the breakwall.
OK, word is they're definitely gonna run the first round(s) this morning.
Note: Portugal time (9am Lisbon = 8pm AEST).
Not sure if it'll be held at ST or the breakwall, with consensus among surfers split, though when the first swell fills in on Friday local time they'll almost certainly have to shelter in the lee of the breakwall as the wind will be strong northerly.
Saturday looks a bust for wind - NW then S - but at this satge Sunday looks really good with a muscled up swell around 6ft and offshore NE wind.
Woohoo! Pumped!!
Ahhh, I wonder if they know about the fish factory at the breakwater, all the refuse goes back in the ocean. A mate got pretty crook surfing there.
At least one of those surfers on Stu’s clip has the ‘adjust the cuff links after a good one’ manoeuvre down pat.
I’m looking to add that one to my repertoire, if I ever get back in the water!
With the Forecasts Stu, could we add offshore or Onshore or Cross Shore.
The Wind direction doesnt mean much to a Sydney sider.
Agh the orientation is explained here: https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2022/02/22/early-foreca…
Craig - you have given me exactly the Opposite of what I was looking for. - a long winded explanation
(Pun intended). 6 foot & Offshore is way easier.
PS: Ive surfed around Peniche & Ericeira. Its a general comment for all forecast notes
Mon 4 Foot Onshore (off)
Tue 5 Foot Cross Shore (Maybe)
Wed 6 Foot Offshore (On like Donkey Kong)
Well anything from SE to N'th is good with the protection from the headland. True offshore looks E-E/NE.
If the contest does run tonight (and, as mentioned above, it's highly likely), Steve won't be able to provide a recap tomorrow.
Not unless he walks up to Pat Morton lookout tonight, holds his phone high to tap the dregs of a failing wifi, while hoping it doesn't rain.
Lazy bastard...
I would expect nothing less from our finest reporter!!
looking pretty chunky
Is it happening? It's 8.00 pm local time and I don't see anything on swellnet.
I think on hold til 11.00am Ola time @batfink
Think I worked out that 10.50 WET is around 9.50 pm AEST. Cheers BD. If I'm still awake I'll tune in.
Next call in 55 minutes
Give it to them Caltex ...BooM !
BD, instead of getting up super early in the morning, you can watch at a nice post.-dinner time hour. You must be thrilled.
Me, I’m tired (I’m very old.) Don’t think I can hold out for another 45 minutes.
The waiting period is now stacked with swell, as it is with tricky wind.
Swell still due to kick tomorrow (tonight for us), but those northerlies will make it tough. Figure if they ran yesterday they'll run again tomoz, but it won't be pretty.
Saturday straight onshore but light, so who knows if they'll run, then Sunday is holding firm for good conditions all around.
I caught some of the last heat and a bit of the recap. Looked like it was smallish and really windy for the girls early. Fairly solid and cleaner by the end of the day.
Anti-climatic though after Hawaii.