Forecast Update: Rip Curl Pro
Will they score or won't they? Great one update, onshore and from the south-east the next.
Everyone's trying to make sense of the coming forecast period for the Rip Curl Pro and as we approach the start of the waiting period - this Sunday the 10th - what we can see is that there'll be swell, though local winds will create a few headaches.
As discussed in the early forecast, a summer La Niña pattern which is now fully entrenched in the middle of autumn is continuing to bring unseasonal high pressure, south-east winds and a subdued Southern Ocean storm track.
This doesn't bode well for the start of the waiting period, with flukey, inconsistent swells due to impact the Victorian Surf Coast ahead of some better activity through the middle to end of the period.
Let's break it down a bit.
On the opening day of the waiting period we'll see an inconsistent, mid-period W/SW swell in the water, generated by a flurry of frontal activity to the south-west of Western Australia this week. There'll also be a small, long-period signal in the water generated by a tight fetch of gales around a low falling south through the Southern Ocean this afternoon and evening.
Both swells don't look to exceed an inconsistent 2-3ft and a fresh N'ly breeze should ease and tend N/NW, creating decent conditions on the reefs all day making it a contest day.
Monday will start clean with a light NW offshore and new pulse of short-lived, tricky SW tending S/SW groundswell. The swell will be generated by a rapidly deepening low south-west of the state on Saturday evening, with a burst of severe-gale winds generated briefly in the Surf Coast's swell window. The American model GFS has the low forming earlier than the European version, resulting in more size, but with the divergence we'll keep a dampener on the expected size for now.
We'll see the swell arriving early in the morning, building through the day and reaching 3ft+ but that morning offshore will give into a strengthening S/SW change late morning which will create choppy conditions as the swell peaks.
The swell will fade rapidly into Tuesday with lingering southerly winds - likely a lay day.
We've then got a couple of tricky wind days as a broad inland trough/low drifts in from the west, bringing varying winds from the SE to NE through Wednesday to Friday.
Regardless, healthier polar fronts and lows will fire up south of the continent through next week, producing some better S/SW groundswell energy for Wednesday and Friday.
We've got recurring divergence regarding the strength of these systems with the European version being weaker, but regardless we should see 4ft surf on both Wednesday and Friday though with winds out of the eastern quadrant on both days.
Keep an eye on the running commentary below regarding any upgrades to the size of swell and local winds.
Longer term, there looks to be one final follow up polar low and quality swell for Easter Sunday/Monday but we'll continue to track this over the coming week.
Comments
How’d the trials go today cry laughing emoji
Not real flash.
Oh wow
Feel the pain. Become one with the pain. Join our pain.
Unhappy trails.
Don't WSL have an online spellchecker??
Spelling is correct if you're a mountain biker.. Proof reader, obviously not. haha
Easily overlooked BD considering how bad it looks. May I add .. 'not Scabs bad though.... not far off. Wsl'll be a'right.
Short straw draw... ..at a guess.
So Craig Sunday 17th through to Thursday 21 is looking reasonable ?
That's too far out to be confident on anything at this stage with the current instability across the country.
Also. Someone mentioned that if it’s at Winki, there is no public viewing? Was hoping there was a day to have a day trip with the missus but fuck getting over and then being told it’s moving to winki and not getting to see anything.
Thoughts?
Unless it’s guaranteed low tide bowl don’t bother. Can’t see a thing if it’s at winki
The marquee on the Winki platform now cruels any public access and, according to the documentation for the Council's elevated walkway proposal last year, you can't see a thing from the path. Better off with a water sprayer and a coldie on the lounge in front of the box.
Save your petty & valuable time Boner.
With the amount of crap they set up on site these days it's more like a music event than a surf contest. If you haven't got the right lanyard hanging off your neck then the best vantage points are off limits to you as well.
Also due to the predicted conditions you'll probably be there for 10 minutes and they'll put it on hold for the next 4 hours before cancelling for the day.
You can get cold beer there though...........
All in all sounds pretty sweet then....
but only wisdom do you bring, oh wise ring
If you’ve been waiting to pounce on 2 ft juc , or have a chat to some of the local real estate agents boner just say it. No need to blame the missus.
Maybe the wave pool at Tully.. might be better viewing..
Tough fitting both Men's and Women's heats into a tight forecast. Someone bound to miss out.
Last time I went - a few years back - the only place an normal punter could see anything at all after a 5klm walk in was sitting in the car park looking at the big screen. Its come a long way from beers on the rocks at Rincon cheering on Cheyne and TC. Thanks Wozzle you idiots
wait. so can you watch from the beach?
Not if it’s at Winki
Yes
Best vantage spots are the beach for lo tide bowl say 5ft like that Carissa/Steph final
And I really liked up top of the eastern steps on that 10-12ft day, a great view, again big bowl being surfed way out to sea.
How on earth did they give Mikey Wright a wildcard?
Hoping for more of this? https://www.theinertia.com/surf/mikey-wright-and-jesse-mendes-got-in-a-…
I know i shouldnt think it, but i really wish they punched on. I wanted to see if Mikey can actually handle himself and if the Mendes has any juijitsu in him.
Would they have stayed on their feet or taken it to the ground?
The rest of Australia is going to get a taste of how bad Victoria has been the last six months, worst six months i can remember.
Mate we know it sucks. feels like every Victorian has moved to the Gold Coast.
That's just in your mind mate.
I'd rather cut my cock off than to have to live and surf on the Gold Coast after having experienced it on a few occasions dating back as far as the early 80's until as recently as 5 or 6 years ago. I could count on one hand the number of surfers I know from down here that have moved there for any length of time in the last 40 years.
But yeah....keep blaming Victorians for your ridiculously over crowded waves up there. That's funny!
Yup. Watching all the Goldy footage and just gawking at how many Victorians have relocated up there.
A slice of irony with it being busier than around here, must be those bloody Tasmainians…
Thats cool mate, more than happy for you to stay put. There are more than a few of compatriots flapping around the Gold Coast and surrounds lately, although I don't think many are surfers.
Worst six months, mate its been so bad since the first couple months covid started. A few descent days here and there but nothing consistent and even the last winter was pretty crab.
Ditto for Sw WA..
Hey Craig, what is the latest on La Niña? In your article a couple of weeks ago you suggested it may finish around the end of
Autumn. Where I live is definitely still showing signs of being right in the middle of it, as does the Bells forecast by the sounds.
Yeah it's hanging in for at least another month or two, but most of the country is still well entrenched in it.
can't ever remember such prolonged easterly winds.
Do you do a long term forecast for snow season Craig?
I've answered this a couple of times but I feel snow forecasting for Australia is a roll of the dice.
What we do have in our favour this year is a negative IOD and lots of moisture expected across the alpine ranges into winter and spring, but whether or not the cold comes with it is luck of the draw. So if we do get cold air it'll be great but if it stays warm it'll be a wash out.
Cheers.
Meanwhile over in the west at Margaret River the show is well and truly on. The big circus started going up a week earlier than usual-3 fkn weeks before a 10 day event. Means they have surfers point carpark for half of autumn. Yep half of autumn so someone in the us and our ever present perth promoters can get their paycheque. The boys and girls that surf here were (not) overjoyed. Rumours of an extended trials event really helped cheer everyone up (also not). GRRRR
Things I've heard lately, worst run of Vic surf in 10,20,27,39,44 years. I believe all of them..................I need a new hobby.
Thanks for the update, Craig - Bells ain't Bells until it's 8 foot or bigger, so let's hope to defy the La Niña trend and see more swell before the end of the waiting period.
Would be good to see some big carving turns from JJF, Jordy and Ke12y -
I still reckon that second system coming out of the Indian ocean next week will produce the goods. Looks like a swell maker. As for local winds, can't help ya there!
Long term looks waaaaay better, with the Southern Ocean finally looking like it'll become more active. Unfortunately it still looks to be onshore but we'll take some surface chop, as long as there's some nice underlying groundswell on offer.
Yeah good swell producers now, one large but the winds..
So womens' round 1 Monday arvo then?
I reckon they'll kick off women's on Sunday. Winds are good.
VS...been hitting the coast since mid 80s and this is the worst 2 years by a long shot. My new hobby is buying a mountain bike this weekend. might ride through the contest site while down at Anglesea and see what I am NOT missing out on
At your peril vicbloke!!!!!!!
at low tide ride around from Addis through southside
Best thing I've done Vicbloke. I've been riding so much over the last 6 months I've started racing again for the 1st time in 10 years
East of Melb has had its days with the persistent east / north easterlies and workable swells but (as usual) lack of reliable sandbanks often made the conditions redundant.
what weather features will assist with better sandbanks on the MP?
Not sure. More northerlies to deliver more sand? Luck?
Older blokes reckon before the well meaning dune stabilisation and marron grass to stop dune movements/erosion the banks were better.
What's the feeling down there for a start tomorrow?
Looks very sleepy on cams.
They might have some small runners on low tide. Should have made it a mobile event as down south later in the week might be ok. Otherwise looking a little grim
Can they make it a mobile event?
they have in the past but if memory serves me correct this year will be at Bells or Winki only which is a shame
Format seems dead in the water… specially with the continuation of La Niña and/or what feels the seasons slipping later then what the calendar defines them as… needs to be a mobile event even with very limited live crowds just to find the best waves for any given day.. don’t really agree with that either though
That little nuggetty low sitting to the south looks sweet for a day of fun waves tomorrow. Imagining it will fill in through the day. Nice winds too. Just wonder if they'll try to run the whole thing in 4 days regardless of swell or run a round tomorrow and then wait for the week for the next swell. They don't seem to like waiting around these days the W$L.
That swell's for Monday and peaking arvo.
Ahh. I always forget when i zoom out to see the whole earth that a little low spinning just off the bottom of oz is still thousands of kms away! Cheers Craig. Hopefully get some fun waves for them.
Bloody hell. Getting so used to being disappointed by the lack of surf atm..
Torquay currently sitting at 20 deg...nice.
It’s like a balmy summer night tonight it’s epic!
Any chance of a start tomorrow (Sunday) ?
Get those nothing heats out of the way hey ?
Yep I feel they'll run.
It’s starting to look pretty good for the Easter weekend
Haven’t read you mention the LWT for a while Craig. Is that what’s firing up the better swell producing systems?
.76 of a meter on the pt Nepean bouy.. not looking good for tomorrow.
Has anyone seen the bald headed fella in Australia yet?
Erik Logan (!) made an appearance at the Swellians show last night and confirmed that Slater is in the Torquay area.
still looking grim. Might have a small half ok for wave later in the week.
Too early to call it big and pumping on Easter Sunday?? ;-P I likey like the look of the current maps.