Forecast: Sydney Surf Pro
The Sydney Surf Pro - May 17th to 24th
An exciting finish to the Gold Coast Pro - the first event on the Challenger Series - had web watchers paying more attention to surfing's second-tier tour than they otherwise would.
This was helped in part by star power - many already-qualified CT surfers were in the draw - and great waves, for the earlier rounds at least.
Tomorrow, the next contest in the series begins yet the ingredients that made the Gold Coast a success have changed for Sydney.
Firstly, of the 160 surfers in the Men's and Women's draw, just one of them is on the CT - that'd be Callum Robson. The other 31 CT surfers have presumably jetted off to Grajagan to warm up for the next Championship Tour duel. An understandable position as the forecast is burning bright for East Java.
The same can't be said for Sydney, so let's dive in and take a closer look.
(Dunbar/WSL)
The same easterly tradeswell that fired up the Gold Coast last week also filtered down to Sydney providing smaller, yet still good quality, waves through the week and into the weekend. It was a classic summer swell, but that it was coming a few days out from winter is a conversation for another day.
This morning, one day before the waiting period begins, the north-easterly energy is starting to bottom out with two feet of languid swell, bound to lose more horsepower as the tide runs out after midday.
Tomorrow - Tuesday the 17th - is the first day of the waiting period. Before we get into the weather specifics there are a few things to keep in mind. The waiting period is eight days long and the Woz need a minimum of five days to complete the contest. So at best they'll have three laydays, but more than likely there'll be some part days and they'll use just two full laydays.
As the north-easterly swell disappears there's nothing to fill its place meaning tomorrow, the first day of the period, will be very small: perhaps just 1 foot of slow NE swell. It won't be breaking through the mid-morning high tide and the Woz will almost certainly consider it a layday. Also tomorrow, however, a light SW change will move up the coast indicating a change in outlook from the north-east to the south.
High tide at the contest bank, 8am Monday morning
By Wednesday, the forerunners of a fresh WSW groundswell will be moving up the East Coast, however the swell is very zonal (west-east) with the bulk of it moving towards New Zealand's North Island (FWIW Raglan will be 15ft+ later in the week). Only a very small amount of swell will radiate back towards the East Coast, and even then Manly is in the swell shadow of Blue Fish Point.
So, Wednesday also looks to be very small, although small from another direction. There's a good chance it will be a layday too, which means the organisers will be looking to run non-stop from there on.
Fortunately, a second serve of south swell will move up the coast on Thursday, this time running more parallel with the coastline, meaning less size is lost through refraction, and more energy reaches the beach.
How big? The day will begin around 1'-2' feet (and will once again struggle through the 11am high tide) but by close of play there should be 3' sets. Small, yeah, but as they say in the classics, it'll be contestable. The wind will turn more southerly as the day progresses.
By Friday, the coast will be completely under the influence of the southerly regine, with both southerly swell and wind dominating. Waves will hover around 3'-4' feet under a cross-shore wind. The same headland that shadows Manly from south swell also offers some protection from south winds, so surface conditions won't be too bad.
And the same bank at low tide - competitors in the longboard comp visible offshore from the pipe
On Saturday, however, the system will move out into the Tasman clocking the winds towards the SE then ESE where they'll remain for the rest of the waiting period - albeit slowly abating. Both Saturday and Sunday will see waves around 3'-4' feet under moderate onshore winds. A classic suburban beachbreak scenario.
By Monday we'll be near the end of the weather cycle with both wind and swell easing. Monday will see bumpy waves around 2 feet, while Tuesday - the last day of the waiting period - will be back to where we began, with knee to waist high waves struggling to break over the banks.
The forecast may change through the period so keep tab on updates in the comments below or click on Swellnet's Northern Beaches Forecast page.
Comments
So they won't be moving the contest to Deadmans?
Hahahaha
Why is Robson bothering with Manly slop when he should be fine tuning his G Land chops? Surely his spot on the CT is guaranteed one way or another.
Why any surfer would choose Sydney over Indonesia defies understanding. Particularly if their career depends on it.
No offence to Robson but he’s going to need every advantage he’s got with Medina in the draw. Gabriel at Grajagan is going to make male competitors on the CT very, very sad.
Looking forward to sh1t talking through another comp. Manly will be a challenge for the sober viewership.
Hey DudeSweet.
The CT surfers are contracted to surf at least 2 x Challenger series comps. I guess this sees his obligation fulfilled in Aus instead of hunting down some other crap comp in Brazzo land or elsewhere.
Maybe Callum could jump in here and confirm this for us? @callum are you out there?
Fair enough. Thanks.
I'm not Callum, but I'm pretty sure they recently reduced the obligation to only 1 x CS comp - like only a week or 2 ago.
As per something i read somewhere, maybe here, the requirement has been reduced to one challenger event. So Sydney beach breaks over indo reefs is a weird choice.
That was the original deal but the WSL have since backed down on that and now they are only required to do one. This most getting it out of the way at Snapper.
No last week woo changed rules so they only need to surf 1 challenger comp but cannot be last stop Hawaii
As for unsponsored Robson ,at least for now some manly prize money might help or further donations to flood victims?
Regardless bit poor form taking crucial points from up and comers
Bit like Igarashi last yr surfing a few
No last week woo changed rules so they only need to surf 1 challenger comp but cannot be last stop Hawaii
As for unsponsored Robson ,at least for now some manly prize money might help or further donations to flood victims?
Regardless bit poor form taking crucial points from up and comers
Bit like Igarashi last yr surfing a few
That's gotta be a mistake from Wossle. The best bit about Goldy was def the waves but, also seeing kelly, and other big names giving it a crack was a draw for the eyeballs.
If they made em do at least 2 CS events, then it'd at least be interesting.
Oh well. What would I know.
Maybe just dodging pre-contest reef-cuts!
I'd say he's doing it for the prize money.
Money and a chance to hunt a sponsor - show he has drawing capacity in a big surf market.
Risk and reward. Bit like Slater winning Pipe and kicking on, on optics alone I wonder if he would be better off bowing out after one glorious win (100% CS win record) and focus on the CT where losing is arguably more palatable, rather than risk losing early in Manly to one of the 95 hungry frothers who want to take down the big dog and in doing so take the shine off his Goldy win.
I mean, if he pulled it off and got 2 from 2 that sure would be boss, but on probabilities I would not roll the dice.
Or, perhaps, it has absolutely nothing to do with marketing or money and he just loves to surf in comps and hone his heat craft.
Hate to jinx him but I can’t see him banking fat stacks in chest high manly dross.
The Matt Bantings of the world eat shit like that for breakfast.
He was a finalist in the us open in Huntington drivel last year I’m pretty sure.
Bit of prize money.
Keep the competitive juice of comp going leading into gland.
Only 1 CT surfer and still a massive field of 160. Anyone know who are wildcards and or trials winners in the mix ?
Saxon Reber and Charli Hurst won the trials. There's a few wildcards on the women's side, Anne Dos Santos, Ellie Harrison & Gabi Spake, plus a few more, I think. Not sure about the Men.
….to make matters worse the WSL Long Boarding Australian leg (yes there is such a thing) starts in Manly today and run to the 24th.
Just confirms that Manly is actually the tenth circle of hell : Despair
You're safe to say that now as Swellnet's staunchest defender of Manly's surf - actually the only defender of Manly's surf - is many miles away on a limestone coast.
To be fair, and in Craig's defence, Manly has been pumping for months.
Pumping is such a subjective term hey.
Hoping to get a few blows under the belt before he gets reception.
Hard to think why you’d leave Manly if you wanted to get tubed…..snigger.
hahahaha
Someone called Chloe got a 8.4 and 9.23 in her opening heat. I can just imagine the progressive moves….
Thought this event was going to be held at North Narra.
edit: it is from 2023.
Why cant they move it to Raglan ?
Or Lennox?
Make it easier for Free to write it up.
What happened to the Piha Pro ?
Such a beautiful spot, challenging wave. Be nice to see a bit more of surfing in NZ
Probably be fair that the kiwis got a challenger event,
I’m sure the sentiment at Raglan would be much the same as Lennox.
Yep.
It's a mixed view point in Raglan but the majority are supportive of big events. We have had 4 star QS events in the past and with Billy being so well supported then most are in favour
Interesting. I haven't heard much talk either way, but a few negative murmurings. And the WRC rally seems to have gotten a lot of resistance, but maybe that's from a different group.
Yep it's a pretty small minority opposing the rally. Most crew are right into it and pretty much everyone goes to watch when it's been on. A couple of epic ruapuke days over the years when the rally was on and no one could get to but no big issues. There's a few staunch loud opposers of events but most a quite keen for the odd one
Cheers
There are definitely a lot of disparate interest groups here: The older crew that have been here for ages; the 60yo+ hippies; the older surfers; the younger families; the developers; the covid sea change crew. Etc etc. Some get loud, while others just do their thing. (This is all just from a years worth of watching and observing.)
While I'm not a rally fan, I'd love to go and watch it. And I think we could all cope with missing the odd day of waves :-)
Are you in Raglan now IB? I wondered if you are. Originally Wellington I'm guessing with a name like that. We've probably already been surfing together haha
Yes, yes, and most likely yes!
Bit hard to miss W W decals pooey.
And a very yellow car :-)
Ok I'll look out for you haha
I don't think they can have big comps at Lennox.
There is limited parking areas.
Its a major road that cannot be blocked.
Nor real areas for tents re big top re "Circus "quote the late AI.
Plus a hardcore surfing community who have made it abundantly clear on numerous occasions they don't want it there.
How good would a comp @ Lennox be!!
NZ well represented on the goldy:
Gold, hey Bro!
How many heats? It was kind of tough to watch, endless snaps in endless heats in endless waves at hypnotic Snappa ... but i couldn't look away.
Skipping Manly, may the best groveller win, getting ahead for goofy heaven and upgrading a second device
Same number of heats as snapper - a total field of 160 plus a long board comp to run as well
A shit-ton. 6 player heats at 6am every morning, JMD cracking the whip, sure she's got one
I kinda thought with less CT surfers they would have less entrants but I guess they filled the spots with more wildcards
Does g land hold 10ft ? Looks like there’s a nice swell before the comp starts and first 2 days of the comp
Yeah, if Kongs/Moneytrees is 10ft, then Speedies is 6-8, however it's tidally dependent. Unfortunately the day that swell hits - May 25th - the high is at 5am, low at 11am. High is 1.8 m (compared to 2.8 for the full moon) and the low is 1.0 (compared to 0.1).
So there's not much movement, but I doubt it'll be high enough for Speedies.
Anyone else got thoughts on it?
Tide charts here: https://grajagan.com/#featuresPage
Yeah Stu on tides like that speedies is bodyboarding only and even then suicidal.
Looks too west for down the end i reckon. Could be good solid moneys if its clean and had a few days of good wind. Or could be washy, wobbly and a bit maxing if not. Such a contrary place. Smart money is on putting as much time in beforehand as necessary.
Kongs right handers will be the go
If the swells straight south, ive seen speedies on hightide at one to occasional three foot and good while later on paddled out at the ledge and it was solid six to eight foot, meanwhile speedies looked flat from shore. Saw a surfer i later joined on a boat trip drop into the flats on a set at the ledge and pull in so deep and make it...ripping..it scared me a bit as it was lowtide by then.So i think on super south swells its a good direction for speedies but not much size gets in compared to ledge and money trees.
Thats because it moves down the reef on high, up the reef on low. Speedies is out of the water if ledge is breaking. Swell was probably west. South swells are bigger down the end. Like I said, contrary place....
ok good info, but speedies was makeable and kind of slow paced so i thought it was a south swell...but anyhow it was ninety eight so no internet there from memory.Camel was charging too,so was his mrs on their honeymoon.
Maybe the south swell died out then a new west swell arrived in the arvo.
When Gland gets giant it breaks way out on a bommie and runs all the way
into speedies its insane. Hope its like that for the pros what a spectacle it
would be. Im very excited about the Gland contest hope it pumps.
That bommie is an excellent indicator for direction of swell
So ATM..... Manly may be better suited to limo longboard comps.
Garjagan better for high performance boards.
hi stu, yes a bit of a worry about summer swells heading into winter. it is still so warm up here in se qld, the water temp is warm, the air temp is warm. doesn't feel like we r getting a winter this year
How often do you need a three by two steamer in se qld? ive never been there in winter.
Short answer: never
Long answer: Can make you feel a little better July / August when its single digits outside with a bit of wind at dawn. Otherwise for most people it's overkill. I think crew pull them out as a bit of a novelty. I guess when you're used to surfing in boardies / vest all year that when the water gets below 20 and there's a brisk westerly blowing it can be perceived to be cold.
2mm short arm is generally all anyone needs.
Bought a 3/2 a few years back and it was too hot. Rocking a 2mm short arm for years now. The biggest issue is the air temp, not the water temp.
A mates sister's husband's brother knows a fella who lives down the road who met an old mate that made the call that Balmoral Beach was gunna be pumping.
Some Ferry wake might be just what they need…..couldn’t be more boring than Kelly’s tub to watch could it ?
if you can score a parking spot, automatically promoted to the final round.
I just did a drive around on the coast where I live, about an hour or so south of Manly. The shift in swell lines from NE to S is already noticeable despite the FC expecting little S swell in the water.
To be sure, it's pretty damn small though there are some fun high tide banks breaking in the 1'-2' range. Wouldn't bother chasing them or taking time off work, however I wasn't expecting it to even be surfable today.
Doubt Manly will handle the 9am high but maybe it'll be surfable late morning.
Thought the same. The more exposed beaches had some micro but super clean lines. Worst case they can send the Longboarders out to do the ironing board dance again.
Still looks tiny.
But goddamn, babyfood with Bluewater and sunshine looks incredibly inviting right now.
Haven't seen a day like that around here for more than 6 months.
Yep, I'd be out there on a groveler/glider type board quite happily.
Hope fully the G Land will turn on..
Bronson M Highlining ..
Callum Robson will have to get his skates on to get to G-land if Manly ends on the 24th and G-Land starts on the 24th.
Gee yeah. Good spotting. Strange one. I can only imagine as I think you mentioned prize money / Australian exposure for potential sponsorship.
Am I the only one who would find it tough to believe he hasn’t been thrown an offer or two yet? Holding out?
FWIW I hope he gets a solid and stable pay day.
Starts on the 28th.
Gland starts on the 28th.
*Stunet beat me to it.
Can't find Callum's name in the heat draw for Manly...
Maybe he read the Swellnet comments and got on a plane to Indo instead...
You're right, looks like a change of plan with a wildcard or lower seed stepping in.
smart. First time there+arriving day before=lost at sea. No amount of surfing manly or quey points will help that.
There will be waves at Plengkung Beach, that's a safe bet.
Models tend to overcall surf a week out. 10ft forecast might only be 8ft or even 6ft which should be enough.
Interesting to see if the window for the comp runs to dusk to take advantage of tides.
You'd think they are instructed to surf Money Trees down, since you would struggle to see Kongs from the judging tower
many reasons to oppose it, but they never asked me, and its going ahead, so interested to see the pros surf it
curious to see how many (unrealistic) punters will rock up this season after seeing Holy Toledo do a Rodeo air at Speedies?