Billabong Pro Pipeline Early Forecast
This week, the North Shore is heading into a very active period of storms and swell. And while that's great for building hype in the lead up to the start of the Championship Tour, the constant bombardment of swell before the Billabong Pro Pipeline doesn't necessarily bode well for the event itself.
You see, the longer the activity continues, the greater the chances of it going quiet come the start of the waiting period.
This is unfortunately the case for the start of the Billabong Pro which kicks off in just over ten days, on the 29th of January.
Leading up to the start of the waiting period there are two significant swells inbound; the first an extra-large swell building rapidly Sunday and easing slowly Monday, ahead of another oversized swell late Wednesday, peaking Thursday morning.
Though this is a forecast for the Billabong Pro, it's worth mentioning that the first swell will meet the Eddie Aikau threshhold, and with light winds to boot - but that's another conversation.
Following the storms linked to these swells, the North Pacific is due to go very quiet thanks to a robust, oblique-angled blocking high, stretching from north-east of the Hawaiian Islands, all the way to the Marshall Islands in the west.
Under this setup storms forming off Japan will quickly be deflected away to the north-east and kept well beyond striking distance of the islands. Therefore, weak, low-period background swells from the north-west are due through the opening days of the waiting period.
The good news is that the blocking pattern is expected to start breaking down through the second half of the waiting period, so hopefully we see the North Pacific firing up again before things come to a close on the 10th of February.
We'll provide further updates once the outlook for the second half of the event window becomes clearer.
Comments
Still along way out and as such the forecast for the actual event particularly towards the back end could easily change.
Question. Will these large preceding swells assist or make worse the sand situation at pipe?
Direction and size play a huge factor.
Everyone has a different opinion.
You probably don't want a north swell right now.
Jaws is going to run ?
Looks a bit too windy. Other than that the swell is a cracker!
Its always windy in maui!
Trade cycle in full effect.
Vortex from dormant volcano and adjacent mountain
Blocking high = groomer weeks on the mountains.
I can recall last year the forecast looked dire and then it turned out to be one of the best Pipe Masters ever!
It did, those mid-period swells performed way better than I expected, mostly due to the sand being epic as well.
First half of the period is not looking promising at all so we hope for the second half.
For sure. And that comment was not a slight on you. Just a pleasant surprise for all of us watching.
Thanks for the forecast
No worries, and yeah I didn't take it that way :)
Latest GFS already showing a promising change in the swell forecast.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2023/01/19/sports/sports-breaking/the-ed…
It’s on
Great, I'm getting the pop corn ready!
That purble blob making landfall in North America on the right - is that somewhere in Oregon ? That looks huge. That coastline is beautiful and treacherous, I wonder if anyone surfs it.
dis'elgetcha go'in
Just saw Sally is in the draw, how did that happen considering she didn’t make the cut or re-qualify?
Wildcard.
This is the wildcard on top of the wildcard from the second half of last year
Forecast def looking way more positive.
So it looks like we've got a significant swell locked in for the start of the waiting period but winds aren't ideal at all. Will continue to see how it plays out.
WAMS wind looking extra weird no?
Yeah there's a trough pushing down into the islands which isn't good at all.
Finger's crossed its weird enough to change and that smaller low to the east pisses off!
Some crazy pressure gradients forecast in the north sunday, monday.
Check out Feb 10th on the end of the EC forecast on windy for a bit of novelty. 100kt winds pointing straight at Hawaii!