The Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach
March 26th - April 5th, 2024

Following a fun weekend of waves across the Surf Coast, along with clean, building surf today, the coming days are looking great to get the Rip Curl Pro under way at Bells Beach.

Before we get into the forecast: Surf Coast locals Tully Wylie and Ellie Harrison are into the event after winning the trials on Saturday afternoon, along with George Pittar who took out the Rip Curl wildcard spot.

Tully will take on Jacob Willcox and Griffin Colapinto, George is up against Ethan and Matthey McGillivray, while Ellie has Molly and Isabella Nichols in her Opening Round heat.

The first day of the waiting period kicks off tomorrow, and the forecast has changed slightly since last week: we’ve got a better wind outlook, though a little less size is expected.

If you read the Early Forecast, you'd be aware of the strong polar low linked to a large swell due this afternoon. This swell is still on track. The sets will be hitting 6-8 foot by close of play today, although with bumpy conditions from a fresh SW breeze.

By the time 'Hells Bell's pumps out across the....erm, natural amphitheatre, the surface conditions will have improved, as the wind eases and swings back towards offshore.

As for size, we'll see easing 4-6 foot sets across the Bells Bowl, slowed a little by a reinforcing pulse of mid-period swell energy, generated by a frontal system moving through this afternoon. The same frontal system will bring the offshore north-west winds tomorrow morning, which will shift more towards onshore in the early afternoon before freshening further late in the day.

Both swells will fade through Wednesday from 3 to occasionally 4 foot early in the day, down to 2-3 foot into the afternoon. Unfortunately, the window of clean conditions looks slimmer on Wednesday with a light offshore wind due to shift southerly later morning, though without reaching too much strength into the afternoon. Wednesday will likely be another full day of competition.

Thursday and Friday, however, look to be lay days thanks to unfavourable winds from the southern and eastern quadrants along with small levels of swell.

Last year, Ethan Ewing won Bells, taking the title exactly forty years after his late-mum Helen won it (WSL/Ed Sloane)

Some long-range but inconsistent swell is due into Saturday morning under a light offshore wind, though a trough will bring a freshening southerly change into the afternoon. We can expect low 2 foot to occasionally 3 foot sets, so we can’t discount the day entirely. It's also worth considering that there's a tradition of running the contest across the Easter weekend, even when the surf is marginal.

The remainder of the period remains flukey - small backgrounds swells, uncooperative wind - but as pointed out in the Early Forecast, there's hope into the final days of competition.

From this Sunday through till next week, a broad area of strengthening frontal activity to the south of the country should produce building levels of size and energytowards the end of next week.

At this stage, we can possibly expect the surf to reach 3-5 foot through Thursday and Friday - which is the last day of the waiting period - with favourable, light morning winds. It's a while out, however, and there's some model divergence regarding the conditions.

Regardless, there should be enough to work with to end the event in good surf.

Stay tuned for updates in the comments.

16-Day Torquay Forecast Graph
16-Day Torquay Coast WAMs