Early Forecast: 2024 Paris Olympics
Paris Olympics 26th July - 11th August
Surfing Waiting Period 27th July - 5th August
The opening ceremony for the 2024 Paris Olympics is this Friday, with the waiting period for the surfing beginning the very next day. The period runs for ten days, with organisers requiring three to four days to run the competition. The flexibility lies in heat times, the length of which is up to the Technical Director. Later this week we'll run a separate article on the draw, heat times, and other rules.
While numerous, high-resolution wave-modeling studies have been compiled to give each country a competitive edge, they're liable to come to nought. Fact is, we’re looking at anything but a straightforward Teahupoo forecast - especially for the first half of the waiting period.
Following an XL swell a fortnight ago, Teahupoo has gone a little quiet thanks to a large high pressure system dominating its prime swell window, just off New Zealand’s East Coast.
Tahitian Olympic hopeful Kauli Vaast gets the wave of the day during the swell that arrived two weeks too early (Bonython)
The high is currently breaking down and two swell-producing systems are forecast to move into the slot, however both are of low quality.
The first and best system is a weak low that’s currently sitting just east of New Zealand. The pressure gradient on its western flank will result in a flaccid fetch of southwest winds projecting towards Tahiti today and tomorrow. Those winds will generate a small to moderate-size, mid-period southwest swell for the opening day of the waiting period.
On Sunday - the second day of the waiting period - a reinforcing pulse of slightly stronger south-southwest swell is likely, produced by a trailing but stronger fetch of winds on the tail of the low as it moves east.
Source of the swell that will strike during the first two days of the waiting period. For comparison, the system that created the wave in the photo above had stronger winds blowing over a broader area, and it started its journey another 1,000 kms to the southwest.
Size..?
Saturday’s swell will be a good direction - it'll have a touch of west in it - though only likely to hit 4-6 feet at its peak.
Sunday’s south-southwest swell is slightly stronger, though from a slightly less favourable angle, also coming in at 4-6 feet before easing into Monday.
Regarding wave size: It's worth noting that due to the open ocean quality of Tahiti, with no continental shelf to moderate incoming swells, the occasional outlier set is possible. Therefore expect the odd 6 foot-plus set.
Similar to the tricky swell forecast is the local wind forecast. Light east-southwest trades are preferred, however the tradewind pattern will be disturbed by a cut-off low moving in from the west over the weekend. It's a highly dynamic forecast, but we should see strengthening north-northeast winds Saturday - which are just barely offshore - with less favourable north-northwest winds on Sunday.
However, if the low's movement slows, we can expect more favourable east-northeast winds Saturday and north-northeast on Sunday - we'll watch this aspect closely.
It's highly likely both these days will be competition days. That statement is made considering the aforementioned cut-off low and the mess it brings next week.
Cut-off lows aren't uncommon, however this one is travelling quite north in latitude so it'll adversely affect the often-stable tropical weather pattern. It'll create gusty southwest winds - straight onshore - and with them a short-range west-southwest swell.
Once it clears later next week - which is into the second-half of the waiting period - winds are due to slowly improve and shift back to trade direction.
The swell, however, will resist falling into the 'classic' pattern. We should see some funky south-southeast swell from the last east-moving flurry of the low. Otherwise weak, background south-southwest swells look to pad out for the last few days of the waiting period. These features will be confirmed in a second Olympic forecast, due Tuesday 30th.
Source of south and south-southeast swells towards the end of the waiting period - neither is an ideal direction for Teahupoo.
None of this matches the Teahupoo the non-surfing public has been sold on, though it arguably creates a more even playing field. The Teahupoo specialists lose their advantage and the winners will have to surf a range of conditions.
Stay tuned to updated commentary below and a new forecast next Tuesday.
Comments
Not ideal, but 4-6 foot (hopefully clean) Teahupoo is still very entertaining.
Nathan Florence has an interesting read on it, and is going by a bigger Surfline forecast size.
Would be a pity to see the early heats in fantastic conditions to only see the final heats in rubbish ... so hopefully the first swell holds long enough to get four days completed.
They won't get 4 days out of it.
The truth hurts !
any chance of the contest being won by an air specialist?
Yes, but probably not with airs.
So you are saying Felipe has a chance at redemption and an Olympic gold medal?
He has to take off on one if he wants to do that
Pity about the flaccid fetch!
So in other words it’ll be chaff with small wave crew shinning
Pretty much. As Craig said, that cut-off low will wreak havoc with local winds through the middle part of the waiting period.
Maybe something right at the end ?
So who makes the call on run days?
The weirdo in the hat
The flaccid fetch should be good for Felipe
Haha! The thought of him having a win in substandard conditions and the Brazzos crowing about it made me vomit a little bit
Perish the thought.
Saturday's swell looks more to 4-6ft now. The fetch is still weak but healthy.
So we can expect 4-6ft surf Saturday through Sunday, easing Monday.
size matters ...at Teahupoʻo
Flip for Pilipe & genuine OOOOO title....
Elimination rounds day1&2.... contestable barrels. 3x best rides scored in 45m,
thereafter.... Best 2 surfers out of of 3 through; on the forecast flaccid fetches.... for Olympic medals...?
(just dreamin of a fair fight for gold...)
Great summary of the potential surf , as usual.
lesson 1... dont fade. 2. pump hard; 3. pray hard...
4.take a deeeep breath
Plenty of large scale storm activity moving across the Southern ocean for potential large long period stuff in the second week but not sure it'll make it into the swell window past NZ in time.
But it's very active down here and when it's active there's hope! (Was 15foot plus for previous 3 days and wild and stormy so there's plenty going on out there).
If you’re talking about last Friday Saturday Sunday between 4.5 - 6.5m on the Albany bouy. There where some solid sessions going down if you knew where to look. Wind was good too.
Any chance they're having dual heats for a 2 day sprint ?
Hey Julio, Have you surfed there? I haven't but I'd be interested to know the pattern of sets arriving at Chopes.
From my observations of events over the years a 30 minute heat most often will allow for two 'bomb' sets of two six foot waves bookended with a set of 2 x four footers either side, would this be about right?
Eimeo and The Hog have put on clinics out there before where they picked off a great variety of beautiful waves coming in at different angles and hitting different sections of the reef.
So rather than spending 25 of the 30 minutes bobbing around in the wild blue wonder of the south pacific waiting for bombs they should get busy and a four 'man' heat would do that.
Combined men's and women's would be excellent viewing.
Opportunity missed?
So funny how keyboard warriors have so many deep insights about this guy Filipe... Once I read an article about Folk Irish Music, and someone was bashing Filipe. He must have done something very unethical or wrong, this guy...
But let's be fair. There was one Swellnet article where Filipe's mental health was discussed, and all the forum big riders sympathised, showing the loving and kind spirit of human nature. But the tides turned to Filipe and by the next article about some tropical reef somewhere that had nothing to do with Filipe (obviously), Fearlipe (or other creative compliments) was back! Lord, that is almost as uncouth and ill-mannered as Brazzos in their forums talking about Ethan's air abilities! (Rumour has it they love John John and Robbo, though). But life is easy in a forum. In the surf, though, Brazzos are worse than the Bra Boys, Da Hui, Cito Ratos, Wolfpak, *AND* Pierpont Rats put together. I just wouldn't include those Hollywood-by-the-Sea guys. Horrible people, I have heard. Ja ja ja ja...
I prefer Toled.00 than fearlipe, but both are funny.
I don't think anybody can make apologies for Flip after his well know issues with slab type waves; you are going to cop some stick for it when you win the WSL and are anointed king of the world with such glaring gaps in your ability. To add salt further to the wound number 30 in the world is charging the same waves that you don't turn up for. Add to that he has done nothing about it, in fact he has got worse. He just needs to go and put the hours in on said waves with someone who is a specialist. Until he comes back with that under his belt he is always going to be the object of derision, like it or not.
Molly charges harder than Flipper.
Before this Filipe guy became the punching clown for Australia's keyboard-class warriors, there was another guy named Adriano de Sousa who drew his fair share of criticism.
'Waves his arms too much'
'Robotic style'
'Ugly style'
'No style'
etc etc etc
As is the way with these things, the aesthetic argument even spilled over into other areas such as ethics and sportsmanship. If he's got no style then he must be dodgy, right?
Anyhoo, at some point Adsy took stock of himself, perhaps noting the Buddha's Third Noble Truth about the possibility of liberation, and tore down his surfing style then rebuilt it back up again.
No, Adsy 2.0 wasn't quite Rasta or Torren, but for the first time ever his upper body was in synch with his lower body, the arms stopped waving about, and three-stage bottom turns turned into one bottom turn, turned into top turn, turned into wave-riding that flowed.
With his newfound style Adsy 2.0 even won that most Aussie comp of all - Bells. Broke the trophy he shook it that hard, and he cheered and we cheered and something had changed.
Call it tough love, but I'll vouch that if this Filipe guy ever puts his head down and has a fair dinkum go then Australia's keyboard-class warriors will be lining up to salute him.
Haha, I am glad you made use of "this guy", Stu. Maybe I will start referring to this guy as this guy from now on (you know, like Voldemort, the one who can not be named).
Although I used a Swellnet article example (well, since we are here) in my failed-banter-intended comment, I was not referring to Australian Keyboard warriors, but keyboard warriors in general. I follow international sites, and it is all the same. As I said, life is easy in a forum - Brazilians, for instance, widely say "Give your Paris spot to Yago!!"
As for Basesix's surfshop suggestion, it's great, but I don't think this guy has the guts :D
he totally does, @pv! he's fought hard as to get to the top of his game..
time to transfer that winning smile to Capítulo Onze ponto com : )
I can still picture a perfect brazillian babe's butt droppin at on me after a perfect Ulu's peak, heading towards the racecourse. ..Nirvana...
Guys can be a nuisances ... surfin everywhere.
^ well written, pv, I agree, it's a high price these guys pay for surfing being seen as an elite 'sport': the press, the fans and haters, the professional accolades, the money. Not worth it. In any world-class 'sport', the people that get to the enviable, competitive, tippety-top have mountains of pressure, multi-angled camera analyses, public opinion, and the big sponsorship and opportunity that come with that. If this guy, Filipe, that you are talking about, hates all that shit, he should get out and start a surf shop and make cool surf clips with his mates. It's been done before, and it can work well - 'specially if he's a cool guy.
All jokes aside.. Flip is absolutely frothing for this forecast..
My predictions of an olympic fizzer looking more likely
Surfing shouldnt be in the Olympics anyway.
Along with Golf, Tennis, Soccer, Rugby etc etc.
No wonder its so expensive to host these days.
Rap Dancing.....I mean C'mon !
Yeah c'mon indeed! Lad from Casuarina shooting for gold in the break boys.
... but I do kind of agree with you :)
At least they have”active” participants. Unlike 10m air rifle. Blister on the trigger finger maybe? https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/videos/shooting-asian-olympic-qualif…
Youve got to be kidding !
Whens Marbles gunna be in the olympics?
Very much agree Gowza. If it’s not the pinnacle of the sport then I don’t feel it should be there. Especially highly paid professional sports such as golf and tennis.
Obviously the Olympics is trying to deal with an image issue and has used sports such as surfing and break dancing to appeal to the younger audience.
Here’s one: Flag Football - LA28 is including this, which sounds like a version of gridiron touch footy!
I for one will be bleary eyed through these next two weeks. I’d watch tiddly winks if they had an Australian shirt on. Most looking forward to swimming, athletics, rowing and the amazing stories that come from our lesser known sports and atheletes. I’m sure I’ll cast my eye over to Teahupoo and hope that Irankanji do well.
Carn Australia!
If you haven’t watched this and want a bit of motivation it’s a cracker:
https://www.9now.com.au/beyond-the-dream-race-to-paris
New Surfline article up about this and it pretty much agrees with Swellnet. Good first day at least.
Should have stayed at Hossegor? A bit unrealistic expecting an XL swell in that waiting period.
Hossegor would have been a huge risk this time of year. Not known for being very good throughout summer.
From what I can tell first few days of the waiting period there look 2-3 ft and onshore.
Is the comp mobile at all? Tahiti has plenty of other options that could take better advantage of this forecast…
No way they would move it after insisting on concreting a tower to the reef
Today's Swellnet model looks much better chance of brown undies and SE wind for back half of waiting period
The big stuff is short range (relatively speaking) and will have had two to three days of south wind on it.
The very last few days look OK, however some circumspection is required as the forecast has been moving around so much
10-15 ft is looking better hey ! We'll see !
Not with those winds!
I wonder when sheepydoggy is going to chime in with his expertise?
Ten bucks the mango is reading this very comment.
Very, very fickle outlook for the back few days.
wonder how the olympics will run it if it was the wsl they would be running the women in some pretty average conditions, i want to see the 14 yr old chinese girl surfing 6ft chopes
Scheduling suggests they'll run both mens and womens round 1 on the same day with a 7am start and running 16 heats through the whole day. Then rounds 2, 3 and Finals all held on separate days, again completing the mens and womens for both on the same days. So doesn't look like they'll have the flexibility the WSL has to put the womens rounds on whenever they like. That's assuming this schedule is rigid.
Thanks for the detailed forecast!
I know yo guys are saying there is a waiting period but on NBC’s Olympics tv schedule , for the past week, there have been definite broadcast times starting the 27th. And i think ending after four consecutive days.
Official website - https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/sports/surfing
"surfing events will take place over four days in a 10-day window, from 27 July to 5 August"
The schedule on the website lists the first four rounds taking place on the first 4 days and subsequent days are noted as "reserve days"... so I think just the way they have chosen to represent it has made it look to some like those first 4 days are locked in competition days.
I have a French buddy who lived in tahiti for 2 years and surfed it all the time.
He randomly mentioned it to me one day .
I asked him how was it ?
"The heaviest 6 foot wave in the world ."
He drove a taxi for the 2 years he was there "drive all night, surf all day !"
Classic .
4-6ft with a bit of west and NE winds blowing up face from the channel will sort out a few of the timid ones.
Is it Sunday morning our time for potential kick off?
Yep.
i was more referring to the 14 yo snowboarder / wave pool specialist competing for CH.na
I think that’s 2 separate persons: the snowboarder is not the one who is qualified for the Olympics
I think holding this event at chopes was a poor choice, surely there’s waves in tahiti that barrel and have sections for turns .
Or France
https://www.surfer.com/news/tour-olympic-surfing-village-cruise-ship-vi…
"The three values of olympism are excellence, respect and friendship. They constitute the foundation on which the olympic movement builds its activities to promote sport, culture and education with a view to building a better world."
"The original values of Olympism as expressed in the Olympic Charter were to “encourage effort”, “preserve human dignity” and “develop harmony”.
"Over time, they have evolved and are now expressed in more contemporary terms as:
Striving for excellence and encouraging people to be the best they can be.
Demonstrating respect in many different manners: respect towards yourself, the rules, your opponents, the environment, the public, etc.
Celebrating friendship, which is quite unique to the Olympic Games – an event that brings people together every few years.
This is the idea of setting your rivalries aside. There is more that unites us than divides us.
Olympism is a philosophy of life, exalting and combining in a balanced whole the qualities of body, will and mind. Blending sport with culture and education, Olympism seeks to create a way of life based on the joy found in effort, the educational value of good example and respect for universal fundamental ethical principles."
Reference https://olympics.com/ioc/olympic-values
Anyone whose back has grinded on a coral reef and then had lime juice squeezed into the wounds would have second thoughts taking off on this heaving slab, especially if you can win most other wsl contest for two years running.... & still be world champ, husband and dad.
A 2024 Olympic medal may be the motivation (effort, dignity and harmony) to paddle hard into a shallow reef barrel ...again.
Will be great for all Olympians, if the waves are crap, to get a second chance.
And how do we watch this show folks in its entirety, if the show looks good and the aussies are going OK nine will devote coverage minutes, if not, what?
Olympic website... requires email registration for logon
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCR6GcgPRMJt04u8ETtxUNVw
or wait for recap uploads...
remain calm in chaos
women's vs' men's rehersal heats
Good chat between VB and Matt Bemrose on ATS - interesting insights into how it’s all working over there.
The call about getting stuck into the other Aussie coaches who are coaching for different countries was pretty funny.
yeh, but what about crosby stills and nash robots?
quantum computers, AI, robots and redbull are incohesive for sustainability.
harmony demonstrates the potential for universal love
Red Bull is Jamie Obriens favourite drink at Pipe, don’t know how good it would be for long hold downs, regarding heart rate and blood pressure.
Each day those maps are looking better and better.
Solid to large W swell with mix of mid S to start
Possible mid to large SW swell to finish (if it travels to Tahiti in time) if the current synoptics stay on track is my read.
First coupla days should be good!
They're saying this was a surprise forecast.
Do surfers know how to read weather maps anymore?
Wondering what i fork my money out for.
Seriously? We expected swell as well, it was just that local window of winds that played out better than anticipated.
"Won't be on".
Gotta own that one.
Glad i saw the low stalling enough to keep the wind at bay for that half day. (which i also mentioned in another post). It stood out like dogs balls if you were looking.
Would hate to have been one of the many that missed yesterday based on the SN call.
Drug testing?
Will all the surfers be drug tested at the Olympics?
Speaking of that. Do the WSL drug test contestants? We never hear a peep regarding this issue.
they get tested just like other Olympians
The Olympic surfers have to make themselves available for random testing every day until the end of September. They have to let the doping agency know where they’ll be by way of a daily diary of where they’ll be for 2 hours of each and every day.
So they’ve had to basically tell the doping commission where they can be found every day until the end of September.
If they’re not there at that time and a tester turns up to do a random test, it can be counted as a positive result.
Not sure about WSL details, but did you see this recent one, surf.rat?
https://www.surfer.com/news/portugal-surfer-vasco-ribeiro-banned-refusi…
Siqi Yang having a bit of a tough time in training..
https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/search/2/image?family=editorial&phrase=si…
This is going to be interesting.
Very long odds on young Siqi.
This album is good to see who's doing what - Gabe doing some serious punts
https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/search/2/image?events=776178261&family=ed…
Stoked, Oz beat traditional rivals Kenya in the rugby 7s ,
Looking forward to your updated forecast Craig...and possible conformation of very big surf with clean conditions for the last day of waiting period. Might be a finals day as good as the recent event there...if the long range outlook continues to shape up and organisers aren't in a rush to finish the event too quickly. Hope they have the nerve to hold out until the the 5th and let the remaining competitors put on a great show. We shall see.
Why wouldn't they create the most opportunity for surf by having the waiting period until at least the 8th or 9th August ? The day after the end of competition is looking epic right now !
Any comment from swellnet on where todays swell came from?
Yeah from the top of the low that then brought the onshore change.
We saw a great W/NW fetch on its northern flank with the swell arriving while winds were still light and offshore.
Usually the swell arrives behind the change thanks to it being generated on the south-western flank, but this was a rare scenario.
So yous got the forecast completely and utterly wrong by the looks of today?
Happens, its a forecast . . . not fact.
Thankfully forecasts are still not 100% reliable meaning sometimes, rarely, you can by johnny on the spot without hundreds of others out.
Celebrate it, don't criticise it.
To be honest I didn't look closely enough at today as it was expected to be onshore. If I paid greater attention over the past couple of days I would have picked it up, but there's quite a bit going on around the country at the moment.
Haha yeh I know and the boys are always pretty onto it here on the Tweed Coast