Corona Fiji Pro
Tuesday August 20th - Thursday August 29th

It's been seven years since the Championship Tour stopped off in Fiji, but here we are, less than a week out from the highly anticipated return of the Fiji Pro.

Before we get into the forecast, however, it's worth taking a look at the rankings. Since 1999, when Fiji first came onto the tour, the contest was held earlier in the season, in either May or June. This year, it's being run as the last contest of the regular season.

Point being, the Final 5 will be decided at Cloudbreak.

As it stands, only first placed John John and Caity have their positions secured. The other four positions are up for grabs. In the men, this means surfers down to, at a stretch, ninth-placed Crosby Colapinto have a shot at a Final 5 slot. Though realistically, the cut-off would be eighth-placed Gabriel Medina. And despite Gabs being the last realistic hope to make the 5, many fans would suggest he has a better chance than some of the surfers above him.

The women, with the same points but less surfers in the field, are more open to shake ups, with possibly only tenth-placed Tyler Wright too far adrift to have a chance.

OK, the forecast. It's been a generally quiet period in Melanesia. Last months Trials event to decide the men's wildcard was to run during the best day in July, though it had to wait till August 1st for a contestable day. Tevita Gukelau won and will face John John and Kanoa in Round One, while in the women, Sierra Kerr received the wildcard and will surf against Caity and Sawyer Lindblad.

The other men's wildcard..? Yeah, you know it. In Round One, Slater will face Barron and Griff - three incredible backside barrel riders - in a must-watch heat (WSL)

Continuing the quiet spell, the lead up to the event has been small, and that'll continue past the first day of the waiting period - Tuesday August 20th. Fortunately, there is some activity forecast through the waiting period, though it'll test Cloudbreak's reputation as a magnet during sub-optimal swells.

As many Swellnet readers will be aware - you have been reading the articles, right? - the current position of the westerly storm track has both shifted north and, at least in our region, is focussing towards the Indian Ocean and Western Australia.

This isn’t ideal for Cloudbreak, as its prime swell window is south of Australia, and the best swells travel north-east from under Tasmania then either up into the Tasman Sea or towards New Zealand.

At present, the pattern for swell in that region has been to track south-east, away from Fiji. However, we do have one system that will go against the grain. That being a strengthening polar frontal system pushing up and across New Zealand this Sunday/Monday, with a strong front just ahead of it moving off New South Wales on Saturday.

The initial frontal system moving off NSW should generate a small to moderate-sized spike of mid-period swell for the second day of the waiting period - see image below. It won't be classic Cloudbreak, the size will only be 3-4 feet, however it'll arrive from a great south-west direction. The swell should then ease from a similar size on the morning of day three.

Fortunately for the organisers, they'll only have to wait a day or two for the follow up swell to arrive. Looking at the stronger polar storm, there are a few things going for it but also a few things going against it.

Firstly, the cons are its development immediately south-west of New Zealand - which is late in Cloudbreak’s swell window. This will result in New Zealand effectively cutting the swell-generating fetch down the middle, with half going towards Fiji and the other half towards Tahiti - see image below.

Also the fetch strength looks to be mostly below gale-force resulting in lower-period energy pushing up the Tasman Sea. This isn’t ideal, but as mentioned earlier, Cloudbreak is eminently dependable and when it comes to less-than-optimal swells it can make a silk purse from a sow's ear

The pros for the swell are the northward projection of the system towards Fiji and its broad nature.

What we can expect is a moderate to large-sized, mid-period south-southwest swell that may show up later Thursday, though peaking Friday morning - which is day four - in the 6 foot range. Saturday should still reveal good but easing 3-5 foot sets, and smaller again into Sunday.

Local winds for the first few days of the waiting period will be favourable and from the east-south-east, with stronger east-southeast trades for the second pulse of swell.

It's possible the organisers will have the contest wrapped after these two pulses, however during the waiting period there'll be an eastward shift in activity that'll benefit Fiji. The frontal activity currently in the Indian Ocean will begin to push further east and across Australia later next week.

The models are suggesting one of these frontal systems will generate a good pulse of mid-period south-west swell for the 27/28th. That's still a fair way out and there's lots of weather between now and then, but nevertheless we’ll keep a close eye on this over the coming week and provide updates below.