Forecast: 2025 Pipe Pro
The Lexus Pipe Pro
January 27th - February 8th, 2025
Since late-November, the Hawaiian Islands have been experiencing a stellar run of large to extra-large swells - there's even been a couple of XXL swells in the mix. The HIC Haleiwa Pro, Vans Pipeline Masters, and Da Hui Backdoor Shootout, all benefitted from this consistent run of waves.
With the waiting period for the Lexus Pipe Pro kicking off in a week’s time (Monday the 27th of January), we all want to know if the run is set to continue?
In short, no...but there are caveats.
Molly Picklum at ease in a Backdoor cavern during last year's Pipe Pro (WSL/Heff)
Since late-November, the North Pacific jetstream - which effectively drives the surface weather - has been robust and sustained, consistently spawning swell-generating lows from a favourable corner of the basin.
However, the North Pacific is entering a more uncertain period with the jetstream expected to develop significant wobbles over the next fortnight.
Heading into the start of the waiting period for the Lexus Pipe Pro, it’s forecast to weaken and become more meridional (aligned more north to south) which results in cut-off lows and less reliable swell-generating systems.
Though the shift in the North Pacific jetsream doesn't look like much it results in storms on a more north-south axis - see next graph for the results
When the jestream is robust and following its classic path - as it was through all December and early-January - storms transition from west to east; they reliably generate north-west swell that follows a path down and across the N Pac basin, striking Hawaii, and if large enough the shores of North, Central, and South America.
With the jestream moving into a more meridional alignment we’re looking at weaker, more north to south aligned systems, which will in turn bring less favourable north swell energy.
But there will be swell...hence the caveats.
One such low is forecast to develop north of Hawaii early next week, but it’ll be whisked away quickly to the north, resulting in a short-lived, mid-period swell late on Day One, peaking on Day Two.
Depending on the strength of the low, the surf could reach the 5-6ft range though there’s some divergence surrounding the storm's core wind strength. At this stage it looks to be at the smaller end of the scale. We'll keep a close eye on this as it'll most likely be the swell that kicks the event off.
Rather than pure long-range northwest swells, the shifting jetstream will create more short-lived northerly swells, such as this one due late on Day One of the waiting period. Note also the band of easterly gales blowing across the Kuril Islands, which is where most classic northwest swells originate.
Following this, a secondary intensification of northerly gales off the Aleutian islands may generate a secondary pulse of northerly swell for the middle of the waiting period, though again we’ll have to watch this closely. When the North Pacific is behaving like this the forecasts are more like Australia's East Coast - open to quick changes - than the typical Hawaiian certainty.
The second half of the waiting period remains up in the air with the current divergence for early next week so check back through the comments as things become clearer and then an updated forecast over the coming week.
What we can say is, though the pattern has changed, there's enough energy in the North Pacific basin to provide a few days of reasonable swell, and when it comes down to it that's all the organisers need.
//CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
Trying hard not to be disappointed but Medina out and now a scrappy forecast after weeks and weeks of pumping surf is kinda hard to get pumped about.
JJF also out for 1 year.
Hey Steve,
Can't help but recall you and others not taking me seriously when I first predicted it during last season.
End of an era.
Yeah, good call DO.
Only Toledo is happy with that forecast. No excuses and explanations required either when the ladies get the short end of the stick if pipe was pumping.
x 2 Above but Pipe is always entertaining regardless.
WSL doesn't seem to feature Molly in their promo's now when featuring the ladies. Hope she can step it up again this year.
Feels like the season just finished. Back again, look forward to your write-ups FR.
The footy season is the same. Summers seemed to be over quicker. Maybe if just getting old.
Time moves quicker as you get older.
Summers go faster when you work through them
Apparently Time is speeding up as the universe gets older … ;-)
Funny thing is im more looking forward to watching the womens than the mens this time around....
Remember if the swell is too north pipe doesn't even break .
It need the correct angle to fire north swells miss the outer reef .
Pipe doesn't even really exist if the angle is too north.
Alas woz draging the blocking high around the world
Maybe they'll move it to Laniakea :-)
Imagine if Fil wins Pipe with this forecast.
Noooooo
hahah
It'll just go to show that all that time put in at San Clemente paid off!
He ain't hunting anything else.
The chest pounding celebrations would be too much to take.
But I can kinda see it happening, it sounds like something that would happen in the wsl’s current day set up
Is Fil definitely competing this year I thought he retired?
He's in the Heat Draw.
Heat 10.
Woz off to another stellar start.
What a horrible forecast compared to the 5 weeks prior.
how many times have they missed good contestable swells at the end of the year as previous??
love to know the ratio , going back 20 years roughly.
After those big swells, the sand may be flushout of those channels, for a few more happy endings...
If you can get a wave, make the drop, the exit is open.
underwhelming unless you are Felipe Toledo
Thanks for all the excellent swell forecasts Craig, Ben and Steve.
WSL production/editing crew have put together a great Pipe prequal, hope good swells return for the surfers next week.
No JJF this year now. Wow. I wonder if he will bother to surf Pipe?
No JJ ?!?
No Gabe, no Jonny.
Wonder if Gabe was fully fit and on tour would JJ have still pulled the pin?
Florence slab tour is going to be fun to watch this year.
Bummer.
Well I got that wrong, I thought JJ would retire after pipe , maybe the forecast had something to do with it . I understand he hasn’t announced full time retirement , he’s kept that door open in case he gets an itch next year . GO JACK or EE
True true. JJF has pulled the plug. Can't blame him.
Oh well that's the death of the tour.
And @supafreak, you nailed it mate!! haha. (1 event out is close enough)
Interesting only a week out and after telling BL on his poddy that his focus is the tour and not the slab tour like his brother. Must have seen the Pipe forecast and had an awakening of sorts.
Barton will be spewing he missed a scoop . I found it a strange interview and JJ didn’t seem totally comfortable.
haha it was a strange interview. Found out more about BL than i did JJF!
Yes that was my thoughts also , he likes a yack and is a bit out there when explaining himself . JJ was politely going along with him . It was a terrible loss for BL concerning his father.
He might be challenging his bro for surfer of the year, this announcement won’t hurt his brand, put out some sick videos with his 2 bro’s will be a marketing sensation .
Could we please have Gabe join the Flo bros for a Slab Tour episode?
I'd be very interested to see the personal chemistry (sorry, awful word) between the two giants.
Imagine the 2 Koa’s & Kelly also turning up at some remote location that is experiencing a swell of the decade . Indo ? Marshal islands ? P-Pass ? Be better than watching flip do a reverse air.
Gabe wrote a comment on JJs post that he’ll come for a trip.
Steph Gilmore just announced another year off tour as well.
As much as I love her surfing why would she come back now?
The young ladies are progressing that quick I reckon Steph would be lucky to make a lot of heats let alone a final.
Pipe , Chopes , Cloudbreak not really her strengths. J-Bay & Snapper is where she excels . Can’t see her joining the slab tour .
Wow. Dropping like flies.
----- Steph:
“After careful consideration, I’ve decided to take another season away from the WSL tour,” Gilmore said on Wednesday morning.
“This time will allow me to focus on healing some lingering injuries and redirect my energy toward continuing my adventures of surfing around the globe. I’m deeply grateful for the unwavering support of my sponsors and I wish all the athletes on tour the best of luck this season.”
----- John:
“I’ve decided to focus on surfing in a different way this year,” Florence said.
“I want to create the time to explore, find new waves, and draw different lines. I intend to compete full on for another world title in 2026, but right now this idea of adventure and creatively pushing my surfing as far as possible is really exciting.”
Way rather see JJF + Nate on YT than on the WSL.
I think this is a great path for both of them. Best surfing vid I saw last year was Soli and family Simmers in that amazing right point break - best surfers in best waves is the theme. Go for it, invite Gabe along too JJF!
Will more North swells mean more Backdoor?
Yep.
Things are starting to look more reliable with multiple north pulses on the cards. Size wise, it could still be either side of 6ft so we'll continue to monitor the varying model outputs.
Maybe first few days off?
Will have a closer look tomorrow Ed.
How’s that closer looking coming along Craig?
Check below Don.
Cheers Craig
Is Kelly in the draw ?? Wildcard
Yep, Kelly in as wildcard.
Does that mean it will be 5-6 ft swell?
Or 5-6ft faces at pipe ?
We never talk face height. IE 3ft = head-high, 6ft = 2x overhead.
Rule number one…never talk about fight club
Haha.
Same as fishing sizes ..never let the truth get in the way of a good story
I'd say Monday will definitely be a lay day while some new weak swell from the NW-N/NW is due on Tuesday but with average winds.
A slightly better mid-period N'ly swell is due on Wednesday with more favourable winds and this is likely to be the first day they run (early Thursday our time), with 3-5ft sets likely. If the low moves away any quicker or doesn't get as strong this could be downgraded.
Wednesday's source will be a short-lived low north of the island it the swell will likely be gone Thursday under gusty south winds, making it a lay day.
From here the rest of the period it still up for grabs but it's not looking good. There is a possible NW swell for the end.
Love ya work!
Blocking high doing its job a little too well.
Funky setup ...oh well.
Will have an update tomorrow morning.
So John John is now in as a wildcard ??
according to WSL
He's trying to fuck with Slater, haha!
Absolutely hilarious.
Imagine any other sport where your reigning World Champ quits 3 days before the season opener and then gets subbed back in the day before.
It's a total joke. But sort of funny because it's straight old John John.
so, carn, what's the strategic deal d'you reckon? this must've been weeks if not months in the making..
I know it's been done to death and impossible etc etc BUT...
The WSL needs to work out how to make the thing flexible with big waiting periods. They have the locations for the most part. We all know these places get good. The way they gamble on a 10 day window is begging to be screwed on conditions. We have high tech forecasting, there's no reason to get it that wrong. 1-2 month windows, red, amber green etc like the big wave tour used to do.
Pipe, January, It's been very good. Would have been nothing short of amazing if they had been able to run on any of the recent swells.
Snapper, February- March, it will be pumping at some stage.
Bells, May June...
Indo, anywhere! June-August.
I can't be bothered looking up the rest but we get the idea.
Cut more than half the field, Run it in a much shorter time because you know what to expect. If people cant make the called times bad luck, someone will.
At the very least if the forecast for a certain event is horrific then cancel it and move elsewhere. Everyone is sick to death of watching boring surfing in shit waves decide events. Change or die WSL.
Hear hear!
Change or die you corpo kooks!!!
Agree with most of what you're saying Ron and in a perfect world we'd all love to see that, but the WSL have certain parameters they gotta work within- simply canceling an event would not be easy not to mention the financial hit. Second, with the exception of Saquarema (hit and miss) and the wavepool (boring as hell) the tour is held in some pretty A-grade waves, 2025 upcoming especially.
I reckon the last few years the webcasts have been greatly improved by the WSL and the production keeps getting better and better. But, they're a business and you can't pay staff and subbies to sit around waiting for the stars to align.
Having a couple of stars we all love watching in competition missing doesn't help either, but that's out of the Wozza's control too.
Anyhoo- go Jack or EE and carn Molly!
Ron, it is possible to reduce the cost of the circus to tents, a whiteboard, eskis, atheletes, firstaid/lifeguards, excellent camera/ editing and broadcast crew.
Talking heads, judges, ex-pros, celebrety guests can be anywhere in the world, on the virtual sideline, with reliable internet upload speeds.
However, ....$ponsors, coaches, PR, etc want to have houses, hotels, resorts & advertising booked in advance on their calender.
The only reliable fact is the earths weather, climate & forecast models are becoming more variable. Have a look at the South Pacific this week.
https://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=spacific&noof…
Haven't really been paying attention- JJF in now?
As an aside, if the Flo bros did the Slab Tour they could have guests along- Gabe would be nuts but chargers like KP and others would be compelling viewing. I'm in regardless. Love it.
Hope the WSL fantasy engine can cope with the volume of people changing their picks!
Italo on a longer rocker board could easily carve up a big wave arc to win.
It would be interesting if the pros swapped boards and watch the differents in manoeuvres
Hahaha!
Haha, classic.