Early Forecast: 2025 Corona Cero Open J-Bay
J-Bay Open, 2025
July 11th - 20th
All times are local. Australia is 8 hours ahead: 4pm Friday here is 8am Friday in Jeffreys Bay.
After a short hiatus to make way for last year's Olympic Games, the Championship Tour returns to Jeffreys Bay and the forecast looks good for the opening days.
The event window kicks off this Friday, timed perfectly to intercept a number of strong, swell-producing cold fronts.
The first front will push through mid-week, generating a moderate-sized south-west groundswell for Thursday, the day before the waiting period kicks off. Unfortunately local winds will be up the face as the next approaching front swings the wind towards the north, making for tricky conditions in the warm up session.
Captivating J-Bay lines (WSL)
On Friday morning, the swell is expected to drop back to the 3 foot range, but later in the day we’re expected to see the results of that second front pushing through, bringing with it a late increase in building mid-period energy.
The second swell will be generated by a fetch of south-west gales south of the country - see image below - and will produce a moderate-sized south-west swell into the 4-6 foot range. The swell is due to peak Saturday morning, easing through the day.
Local winds for both Friday and Saturday look good with a strong westerly quadrant breeze on Friday and moderate to fresh west-northwest tending variable south-east winds on Saturday, making both days likely competition days.
Sunday will still provide good size sets, but the issue will be local winds, with a high pressure system due to follow Saturday's front. This will bring gusty north-east devil winds, though they'll abate through the day.
Early to mid-week looks slow, with a short-lived increase in weak south-west swell due later Monday/Tuesday morning as a small, zonal front forms right off the coast but moves quickly to the east, with a return to frontal activity due later week, but more so into next weekend.
The contest needs three full days to run, so depending on how this additional activity pans out, organisers might need to capitalise on the weaker swell earlier in the week.
We’ll continue to monitor movements of the storms and keep you updated in comments below.
// CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
Is Kelly getting a wildcard again..
Leo v jordy final
Molly v brooks final
please no
I seriously hope not I’m massive fan but it’s getting embarrassing now
Jordy vs ethan
Luan silva vs gabby Bryan
You called...
No,because Outerknown isn't involved in the event lol.
It's been pumping over there for ages, my YT algo is inundated. Classic WSL.
haha, Same!!
how good are all the old clips, mick tore that place to shreds
love this event!! hope it fires.
(i'd give joel parkinson the wildcard nod if it was my call)
go ethan!!
Ethan Jack Final- winner makes the Final 5.
Connor O’Leary for the roughy
A prospect to savour ...but I've seen a lot more of EE in warm-up sessions than Jack. Can only see it eventuating if it is 6'+.
If they met H2H anywhere it will be all on the line.
I am hearing that Thursday 17th could be absolutely pumping at J-Bay...
"north-east devil winds - "
Correction - warm devil winds (into the wave) are from the northWEST at Jeffrey's Bay, also known as "berg winds" in Seth Effrica
Northeast wind is dead onshore and cold.
Preferred wind direction is southwest - offshore, slightly behind the wave line.
Let's see Jordy and Leonardo Fioravanti make the final!
North-east comes across the bay, side on to the wave, so that's devil to me (adding unsurfable side chop), as are north-west winds.
Erm - I was a property owner at Jeffrey's Bay 6330 for 12 years, I should know -
As there are beaucoup South Africans living in Australia - ask them.
Northeast is dead onshore at Supertubes - cold and dismal wind.
Northwest is the Devil Wind - also known as "Berg Winds", a warm and dry side-offshore.
Southwest is the preferred wind - cold and offshore, slightly behind the wave, so less face chop.
Here you go -
A Compass Rose on top of a Google Earth image of the lineup at Supertubes
Northeast wind - onshore, freezing cold
Northwest wind - side offshore, warm and dry
Southwest Wind - Offshore and cold, slightly behind the wave for less face chop
Don't contradict me again, ok?
You are welcome -
https://flic.kr/p/2rfnqNK
You may be right but definately smug.
Am I a kook talking rubbish?
I don't think so.
Your link shows that easterly wind is straight onshore.
Ummm - do you know how to read a compass?
Northeast is straight onshore at Supertubes - that's why early-morning lineup and action images are completely backlit and afternoon light from 14:00 to 16:00 is dead-on frontlit.
Well if we are going to be pedantic argumentative dbags given the angle of the coastline which by your compass is around 20 degrees west of running north south then a north east wind is cross shore and straight onshore would be wind from the east north east
I’ll go with ChatGPT over you at this point John. You’re proving yourself to be a major fuck-stick quite often on here lately.
anyone else reading his comments in a strong south african accent
are you a geographer or a surfer? to surfers 'onshore or offshore' really refers to the angle of the wind vs the wave fronts i.e. the effect on wave quality, to a landlubber looking at the actual shoreline yeah you can use a map and ignore wave refraction. Even a non-surfer can see the wave fronts in a satellite image.
Owning property somewhere is irrelevant to this discussion too, tall poppy.
A hit! A very palpable hit.
Lament of the old timers.
.. these Devil winds ain’t what they used to be.
You sure you want to use your real name and stop trying to bully Craig, what's he ever done to you?
Gunna buy the book, set it on fire and post a video so no one else has to
Mr Brokensha contradicted me like a was some sort of random kook talking rubbish who doesn't know anything - not appreciated.
Chill out, ya fucken egg
Let me see if I understand this correctly -
I post a friendly correction to Mr Brokensha's incorrect wind direction description for Jeffrey's Bay.
Instead of saying "Thanks, mate - much appreciated" he foolishly DOUBLES DOWN on his mistake and rebukes me like I am some random Seppo kook who knows nothing.
This was a mistake.
Swellnet readers and subscribers deserve accurate information. If Mr Brokensha makes a mistake, he should own up to it, accept the correction, and move on.
Swellnet subscribers in particular deserve accurate information ss they are PAYING a subscription fee -
If you look over the comments, Craig was friendly and polite with everything he states. You think you were friendly, but your comments come across as condescending and arrogant.
Do realise that you're getting defensive over the angles of wind mate? I know internet forums bring out the worst in people, and i'd love to give you the benefit of the doubt, but this place would be better off if you didn't contribute.
Ummmm - do you even surf?
The "angle of wind" is rather important - at Supertubes, a Northeast wind is onshore.
A Northwest wind is sideshore, a "devil wind" putting chop in the face of the wave.
A Southwest wind is offshore, the preferred wind direction, by far.
I would say that is pretty important - if you actually surfed, so would you.
Look at the compass graphic - it is very clear.
Ask one of the hundreds of thousands of South Africans now resident in Australia with knowledge and experience of Jeffreysbaai -
https://flic.kr/p/2rfnqNK
"Gunna buy the book, set it on fire and post a video so no one else has to"
Well mate, as long as you pay the full AUD $85 retail price for surfEXPLORE: Discovering New Surfing Locations Worldwide, read the ENTIRE BOOK cover to cover, all 56 982 words of it and then; if you still choose to soak the pages in petrol and set the book on fire, that is your choice to burn the best international adventure surf travel book you will EVER have to opportunity to read, and own.
I can't do anything about your poor choices, just be sure to use an empty barbeque or other safe facility so you don't set the house on fire, ok?
Might want to re-think your marketing campaign here champ. You sound like an absolute wanker.
Fascinating cover by P Gabriel.
David Byrne was 8 when he came to America and he knows Californication when he sees it, so i won't be spending $85 to encourage it further. I'll get a copy at the Oppy later and piss on it.
Ummmm - I'm not from California, bro.
What an insult - I take umbrage at this assertion.
Here's the paragraph from the book description on Amazon -
About the Author
John Seaton Callahan has been a professional photographer since graduating from the College of Fine Arts at UCLA in 1987. His images, represented by Getty, appear globally with over 3,000 editorial pages and 125+ covers for major outlets like National Geographic, the New York Times, and the BBC. He is creative director of the surfEXPLORE® Group and a widely published contributor to major global surfing publications. Originally from Hawaii, where he began surfing at Kuhio Beach in Waikiki in 1969, John has lived in Singapore since 2001.
hahahahaha what a dickhead.
Haha SL said nothing about READING your book! I don't think he'll even open it, just burn it and post a review of how well it burnt.
Sounds like you would've fitted right in over there, why did you ever leave...
I reckon you are full of shit bru
John, my understanding has always been that 'devil winds' are ones that put chop up the face at point breaks, making it very hard for surfers to place turns at speed.
The range of acceptable winds at point breaks is smaller (than that of beachbreaks) because of the peel line.. that is, the ideal offshore (and onshore) wind need to come from slightly behind the wave, rather than perpendicular to the coastal alignment.
You're technically correct that a NE wind blows onshore to the beach (E/NE to be pedantic), but as the wave at J-Bay wraps around the corner and doesn't actually approach the beach straight on, an E/SE wind is actually true onshore for the surf while NE breezes add that 'devil chop'.
So with a NE wind forecast, I am concerned that this day will suffer from problematic winds up the face.
You're a gentleman Craig and always have been.
Looks like all Northerly winds are devil winds. North-west is a slightly more offshore devil wind, north east is a slightly more onshore devil wind. None of them good. Pedantic dumb argument all in all.
Yep.
J-Bay has almost the exact same orientation as here.
Anything NW through NE is devil wind.
Yep.
J-Bay has almost the exact same orientation as here.
Anything NW is devil wind.
Fixed it for you - cheers, mate!
This has been a thoroughly enjoyable thread. I will file under "shit that really doesn't matter". Love your work Craigos!
Thanks guys, looks like they're guaranteed getting devil chopped now.
And you'll still be arguing over which way the wind blows.
"You're technically correct that a NE wind blows onshore to the beach (E/NE to be pedantic)"
Thank You.
A NorthWEST wind at Jeffrey's Bay is a side-off "devil wind" and does put chop up the face.
A Southwest is the preferred wind, by far - offshore, slightly behind the wave so less chop on the face.
If you like, I can provide photographic samples of all three of these wind directions at Jeffrey's Bay -
If there is in fact a Northeast wind as per the forecast - it will be onshore,, not sideshore.
As per your image, the beach at Supertubes, Jeffrey's Bay faces northeast - that's why early morning images are completely backlit, straight into the rising sun.
Afternoon images, on the other hand, are dead on frontlit, with warm winter sunlight. In film days, with limited dynamic range, afternoon light at Jeffrey's Bay was one of the world's best surfing action image opportunities.
Let me know if you want the wind direction image samples - anything for Swellnet and the wonderful group of very special people who make this forum such a pleasure to contribute!
this guy!
What's the "devil wind"? In Moreton Bay we have a Northerly that blows all the Bribie Island boys down our way - we have more descriptive words for those pedantics!!
Hey Craig. I wasn't a property owner but I can confirm that NE is more onshore than side chop.
Thanks Gary.
It’s a colloquialism: NE winds are probably worse but John’s correct, the NW winds are what the locals call Berg winds or Devil winds.
I’m no expert but had a couple of trips to J Bay and the NW is bad, in reality just as bad as a NE wind. Mainly because they often howl strongly all day from dawn.
John can confirm but the NE winds often pick up as the day goes on and you can often get quite a few hours of surfing in
Spot on correct - from someone who has actually been to Jeffrey's Bay -
The Northwest is a warm and dry "berg wind", you can run around in shorts on the beach in the middle of winter, if you want - but it does make surfing difficult, as the inland high pressure producing this wind can get quite strong - 1030 hPa or higher.
The Northeast is exactly the opposite- cold and dank, a sneaky, opportunistic onshore wind at Supers, not good for anything at all and damn cold, usually heavy overcast clouds as well.
Let's hope we do not get the Northeast wind as per the forecast -
Thank You, my bru -
I'm going to really blow your mind when i say that straight W wind would also be an angled devil wind.
I'm also not a property owner.
That is true - and why the Southwest wind is the preferred wind at Supertubes, as it is slightly behind the wave and leaves the face largely clean of chop -
The Southwest wind is damn cold, but better waves than a West or Northwest wind -
Agree.
keep up your excellent work craig - 99.9% of people here rate you VERY highly and appreciate your efforts.
Amen to that 3vickers! Onya Craigos.
Disclaimer: I'm not a property owner
Toledo for the win , still a chance for final 5 and then a spectacular finish in 10-12 ft CB
Hahahaha
if CB has a 10-12 ft in forecast the whole top 5 would be shitting there pants. and if they said they were not they would be telling porky pies to your face. some big hold downs there when you go through rinse mode. let alone falling out of the sky into a tube. its amazing how elite make it looks achievable to do all that.
Not sure Jack Robbo would be scared.
Won't make top 5
Solid Jbay forecast and Chopes. I think he will.
I don’t believe Jordy , Yago , Italo or EE would be shitting themselves at 10-12 ft CB , these guys charge at big Pipe & Chopes along with CB .
Haha go to CB @6-8 ft surf it your self write an article about your session then tell me how it's possible the top 5 would not be scared @10-12ft
FYI not having a go superfreek just healthy conversation
I think there would be a degree of fear , that’s normal but I really don’t think they would be shitting themselves. I personally would be shitting myself and wouldn’t paddle out at 10-12 ft CB , it’s just an opinion that differs to yours .
yeah i disagree, most of us shit ourselves at that size but the pros will have a jet ski waiting for them when they pop up if they don't make it out of shishkebabs. They won't have to deal with an 8 wave set on the head like the rest of us as we get flushed down the dunny pipe
Its a great convo.
Have thought about it a bit today.
I reckon Italo is a bit more from that older school, Bruno Santos mould of Brazillian surfer.
He charges. Surfs Nazare when he gets the chance, is always packing bombs on those big Pipe swells and even though he was pretty shaken up after getting washed across the button at Winki and onto the rocks, well, who wouldn't be in that situation. Thats the scariest part about Bells when it's big.
The biggest unknown is would the woz actually fucken run in proper 10-12foot Cloudbreak. Me has my doubts.
Sort of like the year it went XXL that day. No one had boards for 10’ let alone that. Why wouldn’t guys take bigger boards to places like Fiji? Maybe they know it won’t run.
Go for gold or mellow yellow
Definitely my favorite comp. Love those long walls with strong offshores. Hope it pumps.
Definitely a favorite for me , difficult timezone though.
Active oceans. Wonder if these swells will add some peaky backdoors or ramps?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2025/07/12/1200Z/ocean/surface/level/over…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=nieZpIzjZaE&t=52s
For those that don't appreciate jjbay in slow-mo & dolphins, please avert your eyes.
If it's 8 foot, Jake Marshall could be worth keeping an eye on.
Yes, probably the most under rated surfer on tour. He is getting better each contest as it looks like his self belief is growing as he realises he deserves to be there
Got alot of Parko to his style for mine @brownie48. Will be interesting to see if he can link a wave from start to finish at Jbay. Different to Bells where he was ripping ... the pace is easier to read. Not sure what his point brreak pedigree is but i reckon he'll shine. Love the work he does between turns to set up his big carves. No nonsense driving bottom turns, no pumps, just pure lines.
Could have tapped into some local knowledge to see that the following weekend is going to crank 8-10ft freights. Well perhaps you were almost there with that last line…but you weren’t - playing it safe I’ll give you the benefit as the only long range forecaster
Time for another cull Stu.
Only one shot required.
Ha ha
Was going to comment about the forecast, yet now I am stumped by the anger from someone posting on here.
I agree seeds, thread after thread, it's getting real boring.
Toxic.....
haha, I'm starting to warm to him. Even Telos Mick considers @john.calhoun an arrogant unit. . he'll prolly shift 3 or 4 extra books based on this cunning stuntiness.
Yep, John Calhoun winning friends, influencing people and also ensuring his future economic prosperity.
End of the waiting period has plenty of potential but lots of run to run and between run divergence.
Assuming your blood sugar levels are back to a healthy range?
I'm gonna put it out there based on form and momentum, I reckon Cole Houshmand might get another good result.
Interesting to see how the big unit goes on his backhand.
Mike Feb would be a good wild card.
Hell yeah!
That would be great! Be interesting to see what he would choose to ride.
tbh- I'd like to see Julian Wilson get the wildcard.
Not going to happen but his J-Bay surfing is insane.
x2.
I'm still blown away by Wilko though all those years ago. Fark that was some incredible backhand surfing.
Absolutely sublime wasn't it?? A good powerhouse goofy at Jbay is hands down the most insane thing to watch in what is the WSL circus. Almost makes the aerial experts look insignificant. I reckon Wilko and Owen Wright should get wildcards!!
Could he do the trials again ?
he could of had a chance if he did the Ballito CS as the winner of that got wild carded into the event. I hope he hasn't given up on trying to requalify after one bad result
Jai Glindeman...
Ooooh, yes please
Gabby Medina, 1min 35 of this vid.
I reckon this is the best wave ever ridden backhand at Jbay.
That last turn! Holy smokes.
Indeed @moonah. Had to rewatch that a few times to try to work out what the hell he did there.
Unforgettable- that was nuts!
Italo on a tear too.
That was a sick contest.
I miss Gabe!
Such a long time since we've seen backhand surfing even remotely like that.
is anyone else having trouble with their WSL fantasy on the app???
(or is it just my iphone 2)
Mine is fine and I also have iPhone
thx - deleted and reloaded app, now seems ok...your ranking is impressive!!! - i'm on 5742 points
HA ! I only came good last 2 or 3 contests, was hovering just shy of 30,000 before
Toledo vs Smith final would be superb.
Not a property owner, know nothing about wind and have zero forecasting knowledge. I just rock up to the beach and go for a surf.
However this thread is a super read.
POTW
Some people should avoid the wind altogether, lest those tickets blow off.
Hahaha comment of the day
psyched to see such good surfers tackle pumping J-Bay, following in the footsteps of legends.
Anyone else a property owner at Jbay? If no, best not to comment.
Ten years at Jervis Bay, known locally as J-Bay, if that counts.
FWIW devil wind is dead north at the best wave in the area.
Sneak peak of our new forecast model for J-Bay (not yet public).
Easing surf from today with generally small conditions until Thursday (there's a small long period swell due Wed but it's only expected to offer occ. 3ft sets). However, a nice pulse is expected around Friday back up into the 5-6ft range.
Looks great Ben. Shame they appear to be running today.
Friday is still the day in regards to finishing off the competition. A great frontal progression should bring a new mix of swells in the 6ft range with slightly tricky winds through the morning, improving into the afternoon.
Hopefully being the leading edge of the swell it'll be way more consistent than the last dying stage of the swell. That was hard work to watch.
Is there a hint of NW early?
Better the devil you know.
Models have upgraded the outlook for tomorrow (since my post last Sunday), our in-house forecast now calling for 6ft+ surf tomorrow AM. Best conditions expected from late morning through the afternoon as winds swing from an early W/NW to the W/SW. Not too strong either way.
W/NW
Is that the devil's advocate wind?
well, now, feller, that'd be your darkangel wind.. nothing biblical funnily enough, name comes from a feller called Johannes Darkangel who was taken at the point in the early days..
In which century was that b6?
And taken...taken by what...aliens.
Off to Optis planet.
having a smile at that @mattlock, while I tuck into my post-movie Spargo's pizza and glass of fiano down at marion. cheers, mate ; )
Marion eh b6
I went there once in 1992 and not again till i moved to Blackwood in 2013. I took one to many turns in sparkle land and lost my bearings. I had to call the misso for directions back to the vehicle.
I stagger about in there about twice a year, among the leggings, strollers and caps.. makes a heady change from chewing moss in the southeast with the wombats and wallabies on my bushblock. I went and saw the Salt Path, then got a sushi feed, then went and saw Friendship, then got a pizza, now I'm home. Bought a bottle of something zesty from the body shop just for me, cos I'm worth it ; )
I don't own any real estate at J Bay so I'm still confused about what a devil wind is there.
According to Surflines mechanics of J Bay.
Storms sweeping under S A bring strong SW winds with the swell, the mountains (known as Bergs) and valleys just inland helps redirect these winds into a more W offshore direction to meet the wrapping swells.
Pre-frontal northerly flow known locally as berg winds (NE-N-NW) result in devil winds (side-onshore) at J Bay. However, Berg winds are offshore at some spot in the region resulting in clean conditions.
So it looks to me like Craig and JC are both technically right within 90 degrees. Maybe.
I own property in Jbay ( .. kinda, will do once my parents are no longer around )
It's the NW wind. It is offshore, but comes up from the Bergs are you say - it can at times actually be a hot wind, which is unique. Pumps right up the wave face, and its a bit of a rodeo to ride.
Not sure if Joli ever owned property in J-Bay, but he's been shooting it for a long time.
"The day started with the contest called off with the swell in the 3’-4’ range and a NE devil wind putting a serious bump up the face."
Oh no, old Joli doesn’t know what he’s in for.
Well played ...and I thought the pie chat was never-ending.
Bookboi Calhoun devastated.
Leo flaring! My pick for the win
I don’t own property in the Northern Hemisphere but could be Christmas in July tomorrow arvo onwards?