Forecast: J-Bay Open
The Brazilian leg of the tour didn't gain too much interest here in Australia. Not for the waves, but more so the time difference and evening start. Sure pumping reef surf or heavier conditions would have made it more entertaining but most were happy to forgo it ahead of the South African leg.
The Jeffreys Bay waiting period kicks off next Tuesday (around 4-5pm Australian Eastern Standard Time) and the outlook is positive.
Much like the constant mid-latitude frontal activity that Australia's been receiving the past few months, the south coast of South Africa has been similar, with westerly storm track currently suppressed in the region resulting in wandering lows pushing eastward. Not great for swell generation.
It looks like we'll see a breakdown of this pattern later this week as a broad, slow moving and multi-threaded polar low moves in slowly from the south-west.
This will provide some good warm-up swell for Friday and Saturday but with poor, northerly 'devil' winds.
Following this slow moving polar low will be a secondary, stronger system though tracking fairly north in latitude. Jeffreys Bay is tucked away in behind Cape St Francis, similar to what the Surf Coast is behind Cape Otway and any swells coming in from the west are shadowed resulting in a drop in consistency and size when it arrives.
There'll be two swells generated by this low, an initial small number for the first day of the waiting period, produced by pre-frontal NW gales ahead of a better swell filling in Wednesday, the second day of the waiting period, generated by a severe-gale fetch of W/SW winds on the backside of the low.
If we do start on Tuesday it'll be in the afternoon as the morning will be small with a fading SE windswell. The afternoon may reach 2-3ft and with offshore winds. Wednesday's slightly better swell should build to a better (though inconsistent) 4-5ft through the morning (possible rare bigger bomb), along with improving W/NW tending W/SW winds. A highly likely full day of surfing.
Behind this W/SW groundswell energy will be a much better angled SW swell for Thursday/Friday.
This will be generated by a broader, better aligned polar low forming south-west of South Africa on Tuesday. An initial, drawn out fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales will be closely followed by a broader fetch of SW gales, generating a large SW groundswell for Thursday. Consistent 6ft sets are due, easing slowly through Friday from 5-6ft. Winds look great on Thursday, possibly becoming a little less favourable Friday but still workable. Saturday will see deteriorating conditions under a freshening north-east breeze and easing swell.
The longer term outlook isn't as great with a return to unfavourable winds and smaller swells owing to increasing troughy activity across the country.
What this all means is that we'll see three days of great to excellent surf running back to back, resulting in the competition likely being run and won by next weekend.
We'll provide further updates or any adjustments in the comments below.
Comments
I find it hard to believe going on past form that they won't try and drag it out and fuck the comp again.
Yep. They need torun overlapping heats foe everything except the finals. Maybe include the semis as seperate run heats if conditions allow. Get it done in decent waves. Lots of action!
Can't sell enough merchandise in 3 days
Never bothered to look but had a quick geeze at the maps and now im confused. Is J-Bay located at Ferriera Town?
Then don’t they also mention Cape St Francis?
What's that Bone?
Nick Bone here I was thinking you had smoked or ingested something but you're correct. Never heard of that before. I guess the place has exploded so much in the past few decades they now have suburbs of which Ferreria Town is one of them.
Yup. On my phone maps it says the wave is at Ferreria Town.
Also, I thought J-Bay was synonymous with Cape St. Francis for some reason.
Cant you read incoherent Craigoss?
Agh I see.
In Endless Summer they surf Cape St. Francis, but didn't know about J-Bay around the corner.
I think the only way to sort out the confusion is for a site visit.
Who’s getting the w D?
Except for the greater odds of mouth cuddles compared to other destinations, J-Bay is my dream wave and the contest I most look forward to every year.
Big question marks on attendance.
John John?
Kelly?
I don’t miss JJF.
Yes, more blasphemy.
You're holding a candle for Kelly, though.
Don't be coy.
Coy? There’s no hesitation or shame in cheering on the Half Century King. I’m way more of a fan now he’s repping old cnts than I was when he was the dominant bull in the paddock.
Kelly really needs the Roman numeral L on his guernsey.
In a perfect world he’d start carrying himself like a gristly Clint Eastwood in Grand Torino and starts cooking the vanquished youth at his post heat pressers …..“Get off my lawn and eat a dick you young punks!”
absolute gold, love that bit.
For those whom forgot 2005 or were not born yet
About as good as surfing gets imho
Blasphemy, but I don't like Kelly's J-Bay surfing.
Too many floaters, too much trickery in the lip.
Not enough straight up clean power carving with perfect flow- see Jordy Smith.
Kinda agree with you there FR but at the time it was an approach no one else was really taking to JBay which made it stand out and it had alot of spark and unpredictability. But yep, Jordy imo is unsurpassed out there and i loved Mick and Joels approach too. Micks in particular.
Come on Steve, give the old goat a break - you rate Fil who wastes so many hittable or barrel sections to wind up for the inevitable trick spin...I rather watch KS surf pumping JBay any day.
Jordie, JJF and Fanning draw the best lines. No question. Fil is also good, but still a bit frantic and arm wavey at times.
I miss JJF from the tour. I only really bother watching his, medinas, Robos and Fil heats. The rest is so meh.
With ya there burzum, my interest in the tour is almost non existent when JJF isn’t on it.
Yes it seems that has been emphasised in his surfing even more since this vid. The small boards with multiple fins see him slip sliding away.
If the above forecast comes to fruition KS will be there with bells on. No way he'll miss 4-6ft J-Bay with only one other out.
After Pipe and maybe Chopes (Cloudbreak when it was on tour too),Jbay is Kelly's favourite event i reckon.
Most years he always rocked up later than the rest of the field,and i remember one year he rocked up so late he missed his first round heat and had to surf in the elimination heat the next day,which he got through.
I'm expecting him there again as always.
I don't remember him ever missing it through 'injuries',i just remember him getting his most legit injury there a few years back.
There's a vid of him out at solid Kandui in indo the other day,so i'm sure he's not too injured to surf Jbay in a few days.
I Kandui
That's about as close to cloudbreak as indo gets,and certainly warrants a red eye flight to south africa and rocking up to jbay just before the event starts lol.
Intimidating wave for mere mortals he looks super relaxed. Why can't I do that?
Sounds as though it might get run and done quickly. Like it. Sounds like enough promise for a good comp. Overlapping heats a great idea (almost always).
4 to 6ft pumping J Bay has got to be the best show in town. So looking forward to watching, it's definitely my favorite contest. Maybe they will give Torren Martyn a wildcard, he was doing pretty good out there in Thank You Mother. (I know, I'm dreaming).
Does anybody know if they’ll have jet ski assist ….
My foggy memories are of long paddle backs …
Surely this is one of the few places that it should be mandatory otherwise snore fest between replays ….
Jet skis & overlapping heats would be ideal.
More action & less hyperbole to fill the blanks equals good viewing.
Jet skis & overlapping heats would be ideal.
More action & less hyperbole to fill the blanks equals good viewing.
Jet skis & overlapping heats would be ideal.
More action & less hyperbole to fill the blanks equals good viewing.
They gave one Wildcard to local surfer Joshe Faulkner and he rips.
Would love to see Ramzi Boukhiam get one.
Saw him surf live at the Challenger comp at Cooly. He proper rips. I was super impressed.
Am amped for JBay walls and speed runs - but even watched some of the Brazil comp..
I'm loving chucking the surfing on YouTube on the telly.. much better than trying to care about footy...
I still remember a billabong challenge from way back in the 90s (vhs) with a hairy goat absolutely tearing - I remember it as 8 foot but haven't seen it in years and years
was hoping it would be more in that 8-10 foot size range at least one of the days.
Hey Craig, what is a multi-threaded polar low? Is that like when there is multiple embedded fronts?
Yep, nailed it.
Cool thanks, not high on the weather tech, just hadn't seen that specific term before - Cheers
Just drop the girls and they should get it all done in quality waves.
That mid week low looking solid on the forecast this morning! The froth levels must be huge.
There's massively different scenarios regarding the following low on EC v GFS.
GFS = good for surfers.
Who’s got the W, mens and womens?
Hey Craig, will the low track high enough for the Donkey?
Looking good for a wham bam, thank-you Mam from mid week.
Bit of jbay Leka bru.
feat. lil cameo by Gordon Merchant ( I think) just before Tom's ride in that top clip.
Geez, Curren by a country mile, imho.
little amp
Magic seaweed disagrees with you
Thanks, Craig - will be a showcase of contemporary performance surfing if they get 4 to 6 foot and offshore!
NE is the worst wind for Jeffrey's Bay - dead onshore, damn cold and just awful.
SW is the best wind for Jeffrey's Bay - even colder, but nicely angled offshore.
NW Berg Winds warm enough to run around in shorts, but an annoying chatter bump going up the face.
Has there been an upgrade in the last day the WAM’s for the 14th look very impressive purple blob
Has there been an upgrade in the last day the WAM’s for the 14th look very impressive purple blob
Didn't know of gordon but know Jeffrey's. Nice spot with allot of history. I couldn't find the bigger footage from the Occumentary when I looked. To get it pumping with no one out in all time conditions would be a dream. One of the benefits of being pro when it all comes together regarding class waves that are todays popular lineups. Always wondered what the biggest and most perfect jbay (mainly super tubes im interested in) ever surfed has been over the years. Way back in the day would have been epic. Imagine having it pumping without anyone out or 2 mates. It would be double Leka bru. Fun lineup, your surfing would go through the roof, after a lengthy period of surfing it you would be a shadow of your former self. It's made to rip. The view is a bonus.
Kelly is in the draw.
No JJF. No Medina.
So Slater has healed up? At least on paper anyways?
So Slater has healed up? At least on paper anyways?
Baliwaves report from today has a photo of Kelly at Ulus
He'll be there..
It’s got to be better than the crap at ballito.. that’s just grovel conditions ..extremely hard viewing and harder to surf id imagine..
WSL judging criteria
Judges analyze the following elements when scoring waves:
1. Commitment and degree of difficulty
2. Innovative and progressive maneuvers
3. Combination of major maneuvers
4. Variety of maneuvers
5. Speed, power and flow
https://support.worldsurfleague.com/hc/en-us/articles/360001534067-What…-
Maybe get some of this, if big enough and offshore -
Mick Fanning, the transition section between Supertubes and Impossibles -
https://society6.com/product/south-africa-surfing-atjeffreys-bay6010526…
That's awesome! Great pic of a great surfer JC
Cheers for that - the Mick Fanning Speed Run through Impossibles is one of the more memorable waves ever ridden at Jeffrey's Bay.
There's a 20 image Jeffrey's Bay gallery on Society6, if anyone wants to take a look -
https://society6.com/johnseatoncallahan/collection/south-africa-jeffrey…
Wouldhavebeen champion start @ 8m30sec
I hope that the J-Bay comp has reasonable waves....The "Challenger Series" was held in dribble that the average Joe wouldn't even bother with...Scores in the 6's and 7's for two shitty turns in even shittier waves...Hard to watch and hard to see how this is Surfing "Going Forward".
It was horrible hey. I clicked on yesterday, saw 1foot crumbly brown wave dribble through, in the corner it said Alejo Muniz V Keanu Asing, so I turned it off before the second dribbler had a chance to break.
Yeah I tuned in for 2 minutes and saw a 7s windswell. It looked sooo bad!
7s I didn't know there was such a thing.
Would have liked to have seen Adin Masencamp get a wild card.
Very good to watch at good supers.
Unfortunately his challenger series results this year have been woeful so didn’t really have any chance in the end.
From a few tears ago -Never got a Ride report on these 4 new ones for Slater from Jim
Not all plugged for FCS a couple of Futures in there ?
https://www.picuki.com/media/2233884793129398920
I dont think he would have liked that twin keel fish he seems to prefer more upright more vertical surfing twinnies from what ive seen. Fish surfing dont get points in contests.
As good as Kelly is /would be on a twin by Jim Banks no less I’m feeling he’d be winning heats on a new CI happy 2 imo.
Chas Smith hitting the right notes
https://beachgrit.com/2022/07/worry-turns-to-sheer-panic-as-world-surf-…
Tia Blanco has got the womens wildcard again, which is a real shame. If there wasn’t a local who could be given it for the womens, it would be nice to reward the winner of the Ballito event. (Yes, I’m keen for Molly Picklum to shred some quality waves against the top level). Prioritising the ultimate surfer winner for more than one event is abysmal
For those playing at home she hasn't scored over a 4.5 in 2 previous events (El Sal and Portugal) and has finished last in all heats competed in so far......
........so in a world where they only let 5 new qualifiers join the top ranks each year on the Women's side, I don't think this game show approach is very fair or justified.
For those playing at home she hasn't scored over a 4.5 in 2 previous events (El Sal and Portugal) and has finished last in all heats competed in so far......
........so in a world where they only let 5 new qualifiers join the top ranks each year on the Women's side, I don't think this game show approach is very fair or justified.
Sex sells (wsl) Tia has the best duckdive around. It would have been nice to see Caitlin or Molly in a WC spot.
100% agreed Peppa. Tia is not a CT level surfer and Pickles is a genuine top 5 surfer.
Picklum just won the CS event but they’ve already given her spot to undeserving Sally. Now Picklum is cucked by Tia Somecnt.
WSL is the pisstake league.
Thank Christ for Ethan “ Neo-Powelly” Ewing. Really looking forward to his J Bay stylings.
I'm surprised Zeke Lau hasn't been able to redeem his Wildcards.
I know he qualified, but he still won those wildcards "fair and square".
John John officially out.
There's goes another year to those dicky knees.
Here's a bit on Ski width and Knees
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspor.2020.00007/full
128mm underfoot. Best powder skis ever.
Nice- but he needs four sets of bindings and can't hold on to the stocks.
Better off taking him for a walk.
Wimbledon, Le Tour, cricket in Sri Lanka, state of origin, now pumping jbay. Wouldn’t be dead for quids!
Kelly Slater to go to J bay on Jim Banks boards.
https://www.facebook.com/jimbanksurf/photos/a.2682311791876186/52832306…
oops didnt see it already posted.
Exciting…j bay will be amazing. Positive thoughts. Real surfing on real waves.
Looks too small and devil wind to start.
Mason rock runners at this size.
Yeah not looking real flash.
Possible GWS caught breaching on the surfcam yesterday.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
On hold until 11.15 SAST
With only a small increase this arvo and south-east sea breezes, likely a lay day.
Thanks tube, didn't know of that one. Also, FARK!
A bit of a forecast update:
Today's large building SW groundswell is on track with 6ft surf due, likely even bigger later in the day, easing from 6ft+ tomorrow. It'll be way more consistent than yesterday's W/SW groundswell with it being generated directly south-west of the country and coming in from a much better direction.
Winds look good to great today and strong from the W, but tomorrow looks a bit dicey with moderate N/NW devil winds through the morning and gusty afternoon E/SE winds. They might get half a day run but it will be tricky with those winds.
Saturday looks unlikely with plenty of swell (easing) but persistent devil N-N/NW winds and then the next swell isn't due until Monday and it'll be west, small and with dicey winds.
Unfortunately the only other possible surf day looks to be next Wednesday with a weak, small mid-period swell and offshore winds. It might get to 3ft but it'll be interesting to see if they try and punch it all out today and tomorrow morning with that devil wind but large surf.
Could they finish in a day and a half? Can't see them being able to run overlapping heats if the consistency is like it was last night - not enough waves.
I mentioned the consistency ;p Will be way more consistent.
Ha! so you did, my bad for being a shitty reader :)
Thanks Craig good info but doesnt sound as good as i was hoping for....by the way did i get banned from the embeded youtube link on this site last night? it worked on youtubes own site but not swellnets page.
Nah, not at all, the WSL stopped embedding of the stream outside of YT.
ok thanks.