Margaret River Pro: Forecast Update
The opening days of the Margaret River Pro provided quality surf with clean conditions, climaxing on Saturday to 6-8ft as competitors vied to make the mid-season cut.
Since then, a strong low has set up camp right off the tip of Western Australia bringing poor weather and surf along with strong winds.
Picture perfect (Aaron Hughes)
This low will dictate local conditions, bringing onshore winds for most of the week, with successive lay days expected ahead of an improvement in winds and surf on Friday.
Friday's improvement in local conditions will coincide with a peak in new, large S/SW groundswell during the morning, along with some weaker mid-period swell.
Those looking at Thursday will notice winds going more southerly but without any real quality swell due until later in the day, it'll be a lay day.
Friday's mix of swells will be generated by related storms. Currently a polar low is generating a good fetch of W/SW gales through Margaret River's southern swell window, with it then due to weaken and project up into the state on Thursday.
This will result in a mix of inconsistent, long-period S/SW groundswell (peaking Friday morning and then easing) along with some moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell coming in around the 6-8ft+ range.
Source of S/SW groundswell Friday morning, and the mid-latitude low currently bringing poor conditions
Conditions may be a little lumpy early as winds only shift light E/SE through the morning, improving and ironing out ahead of freshening S'ly winds around midday.
With ten heats to run (Quarters onwards for the Men's side and Semis onwards for the Women’s) we can expect a whole day of competition to be run Friday though with easing size and deteriorating conditions.
The final two days of the waiting period (Saturday/Sunday) are much less likely to hold the Finals Day thanks to smaller, easing surf and a shorter window of favourable winds on Saturday, onshore Sunday.
Comments
Well done Robbo.
https://tracksmag.com.au/jack-robinsons-top-five-wa-waves
The Golden Child strikes again.
Overlapping quarters certainly but can do they overlapping semis? I can’t remember.
hmmmmm.... To me it looks like a weakening pressure gradient on Saturday, with both Sat and sunday mornings glassy. Nice 4 feet at 12 seconds sat (womens finals), with a 6 to 8 foot 15 second swell filling in sat night/sun morn (mens finals).
Could possibly get a few mens heats done early friday, but I can see a moderate southerly kinking south west and fucking the right.
BTW it was cranking here today. Best surf Ive had in yonks
Nice!!
I'd like to agree with you but unfortunately Sunday is a no go.
Generally onshore winds and the swell has no size in the morning when winds might be light (likely onshore). The bulk of the swell is also due way later and towards Sunday arvo/evening.
Looks like a pretty slack gradient to me
Yeah, looks it, but with no real decent swell.
We'll agree to disagree, mate. There'll be waves on Sat, really nice sat morning, backing off slightly in the arvo, then bigger on Sunday, growing all day. All I'm saying is that, the goons running the WSL dont need to panic on Friday, and hold it in stormy leftovers (unless of course they are broke and cant afford 1 or 2 more nights accommodation lol).
I don't disagree with that at all. I disagree with the swell being there later Saturday and peaking Sunday AM.
Saturday looks great, clean, easing 6ft and then Sunday will build to 6-8ft with clean conditions through the morning, but it'll be smaller at dawn and likely 4ft+.
I've had this in the notes since Monday :)
So with an easing 8ft+ swell with lumpy but improving conditions, Friday looks the day to me.
Saturday great in the AM but easing and weaker period, Sunday will see sea breezes kick in as the swell builds.
So that's why I think Friday is the day. Who knows what the WSL will do but.
I calculate front runners in before sunrise on Sunday, with glassy conditions till late morning
I predict a 20 knot southerly all Friday morning, turning ssw, making viewing AND surfing a shit show like the larger days at Bells this year
May the best craig/dog win!
or we could put the guys out on Saturday and the chicks in pumping surf Sunday according to your analysis dinosaur sheepdog
It's a tricky map to read with this prick of a low sitting right on top of us at the moment but looks like that high moves in nice and swiftly and settles it all down. Those light Friday winds were unexepected but that's how quickly things can change down on this extreme corner.
Btw great read on the forecasts Craig and SN. You've nailed not only Margs but all the events so far this year.
Cheers, yeah a high squeezes in quickly overnight Thursday, bringing those improving winds.
Agree Craig that Friday was always looking like finals day...though I am a little surprised your forecast is only 6 to 8ft. I would have thought proper 8-10ft sets more than likely, maybe even bigger, with some proper outer boil Margie bombs to conclude the event. Biggest waves of the comp for finals day will certainly make things very interesting...not just for the small wave heroes, but for the women too. Either way, I hope they all get great waves and go for it, with another thrilling finish.
It's a little misleading as the models are combining the long-range swell with the mid-period energy so it looks like it'll be really big, but looking at the source of each swell, and that little bit of south in the direction, I'm fairly confident with the biggest sets being 8ft+ though generally 6-8ft. Either way we've got swell and favourable morning winds, more S-S/SE into the arvo.
Yep. Bulk of the storms energy pushing up from the South but having said that looks like it's stalling for a few days and will have a pretty active sea state but the bulk of the swell for Margs, as far as i can read will be more from the Western edge of that low closer to the high, which will still have 10ft bombs, but i'd imagine a decaying 6-8ft swell through the day. That active sea state over a few days always throws a spanner in the works in size though imo.
The big stuff will be more from the South, early... but the consistent mid range stuff will ultimately be classic SW but decaying.
Exactly what Craig said! haha
Ok, sounds good, thanks Craig. As a fan I am just glad that all finalists will be well-tested again with another powerful chunk of swell in a very challenging arena. As it should be. Good luck to all. Cheers.
Agree!
With WA mornings being prime time Cali / Brazil, I wouldn't be surprised if they stretch out the heats with men's quarters friday and the rest saturday. I can't see why they'd push thru on friday with big sketchy conditions. Gonna be awesome either way.
Nah, they will run Finals Day as a "single".
Yep.
So much for integrity. A waiting period is there for get the BEST conditions. It amazes me that in earlier rounds, they will pull the plug on a day at lunch time due to an onshore zephyr, but come the business end, want to cut corners and jam pack the action into one bigger sideshore to side/onshore day, even though there are 2 days left on the waiting period.
I predict serious morning sickness on friday, with a local southerly1 foot windswell chop fucking up the bigger swell, 20knot southerlies, slowly backing off but with a hint of south west in it. Maybe after lunch they can get some heats done.
But to me, early Sat looks prime for the ladies (4 foot with an overnight se cleaning up the muck), OR to get the last mens heats done. Then have finals on Sunday Morning , with a new 6 foot swell arriving around sunrise.
I reckon you are pretty close there SD. Friday looking like a light offshore SE until midday, then light to moderate Onshee SSW wind. Lumpy morning sickness for a few hours, so probably not a full day of quality waves at all. Saturday smaller but clean all day. WSL probably want to capitalise on the weekend crowd factor … $50 t shirts an all.
I.F. wasnt hanging around in the Cold
Wow, how's that for a strike mission. Probably closer than going to the Goldy though.
So many GR8 waves in the South West & they hold the comp. @ a 2 turns closeout location with the odd miracle wave( Carrisa)!
Wind/surf outlook update.
We should see light, variable E/NE winds through tomorrow morning ahead of S/SW sea breezes kicking in around midday/1pm, tending more S/SE through the later afternoon. The mix of swells still looks solid but lumpy and easing from 8ft+. High chance of running.
Saturday looks smaller and weaker with easing 6ft sets max and NE-N/NE winds ahead of sea breezes. Unlikely to run.
Sunday will start slow early and be lumpy with onshore winds out to sea, locally variable until later morning when shifting onshore. A new mix of long-period swells are due to arrive mid-morning but by the time it reaches 6-8ft into the afternoon it looks bumpy. Moderate chance of running.
Cheers Craig.
I think they deliberately made the wildcard announcement today, knowing that the finals will run tomorrow. They’re hoping the negative blowback from today is forgotten by tomorrow when they’re crowning the winners.
Looks like winds already backed off and gone SSE. Shitloads cleaner than this morning on the cam.
And here's John John doing a backflip...i'm guessing today.
How good!
Nuts hey.
I loved the salute.
Just a casual fucking backflip.
Local winds looking good for a start tomorrow.
Its 8:30pm and wind is blowing south at 15 to 20 knots
SE 8-10 kts at Cape Leeuwin
Sure you haven't mixed up the Capes? Naturaliste has been SE all night, but Leeuwin was generally S'ly (even S/SW). Though the 4am data has gone S/SE, which is promising.
Tricky call for Margs, being located midway between. But, looking good for a start, I reckon.
For the record, the three day BOM forecast for the Leeuwin Coastal Waters is (issued a few mins ago):
Friday: South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore early in the morning. Winds tending southeasterly 10 to 15 knots inshore north of Margaret River.
Saturday: South to southwesterly 10 to 15 knots tending west to southwesterly early in the morning.
Sunday: West to southwesterly 15 to 20 knots tending south to southwesterly during the evening.
ah, yep, my bad.
Naturaliste.
Its been basically been blowing southerly night so I expect lumpiness at first light but the swell is there over 3m on a 15/16 sec period
Going to be 10ft+ bombs
Remember the buoys are showing a decent amount of mid-period swell in the mix, so it's not quite that pure size with that period. Expect winds to go more east through the morning, ironing out the lump.
Agree. Watch out for the 10+ clean ups. JJF playing field.
Swell also appears to be more WSW than SW
1st up Gab and Fil, correct Craig?
Yep.
Tide filling in fast, about 0.9m at midday
A whole point nine of a metre at high tide? Is that about normal?
Low tide was 0.44m at 1:45am, so there's half a metre differential over ten hours. I wouldn't have thought this would really affect the surf a great deal, especially if it's 6-8ft.
For comparison, parts of the East Coast often experience 1.5m+ tidal range over six hours. Some locations have bigger differentials.
0.9m is approaching the upper band down here, I think from memory max is around 1.2
Fisheries obstacle avoidance vessel lit up, the boys are out warming up
Nice.
Staying well out to sea after last years "near miss" incident
WSL presser: "Main Break providing super clean surf in the four-to-six-foot range."
Loots bigger than that
Super clean is right, super clean lumps
So who won the Craigo/sheepy forecast battle?
Haha, don't want to say it but....
Craigos - “ So with an easing 8ft+ swell with lumpy but improving conditions, Friday looks the day to me.
Saturday great in the AM but easing and weaker period, Sunday will see sea breezes kick in as the swell builds.
So that's why I think Friday is the day. Who knows what the WSL will do but.
Doggy - “ I predict a 20 knot southerly all Friday morning, turning ssw, making viewing AND surfing a shit show like the larger days at Bells this year”
Cape Leeuwin & Nauraliste weather stations currently (9am WA) recording very light E & SE winds.
Today - "Updated: 2023-04-29 06:12:00
Surf: clean 4-5ft SW
Winds: Light ENE
Weather: fine
Rating: 6/10
Dawn report: Perfect clean conditions this morning with offshore winds and easing surf around the 4-5ft range. Should be great options right across the coast. Tune into the updated photo report after 8am."
Utterly perfect conditions for competitive surfing (women in particular), no wobble , photogenic, A weekend day, bigger crowds, happy local traders, Friday prime time viewing in USA.
If they ran the comp yesterday in 8 foot wobble simply to save on accommodation costs, they lost every dollar saved by not holding it today, and tomorrow morning.
So looking back. Friday was always going to be the best day thanks to the light winds, lumpy and improving surf and peak in swell.
Yesterday was clean but smaller, weaker and easing.
Today a no go.
Nice call Craig.
Cheers.
Agree, good one Craig.