Following the action in and out of the water during the Brazilian leg of competition, we're now just a week away from a wave everyone loves, Jeffreys Bay. Visually, you can't beat ruler edge, drawn out lines of Southern Ocean swell wrapping down the famed point. That and the favourable viewing time in Australia through our late afternoon and evening.

Currently the southern tip of South Africa is being bathed in swell with back to back storms delivering high-quality surf ahead of the competition window.

This activity looks to continue right up until the lead up of the event window next Thursday, before taking a little breather.

This will be thanks to a broad area of high pressure sliding in across the south of South Africa during the middle to end of week.

The opening day should see a moderate sized pulse of mid-period S/SW swell in the water, generated by a frontal system swinging in from the South Atlantic early next week, generating pre-frontal W/NW winds ahead of a tailing fetch of slightly stronger SW winds while exiting J-Bay's swell window.

With Jeffreys being so sheltered from any swell arriving from the west, this strong track will be favourable, generating a good S/SW tending S'ly swell for the first two days of the waiting period. The models diverge a little regarding the strength of this storm but regardless we should see at least surf to 4ft Thursday, easing Friday from 3-4ft.

Winds on Thursday/Friday could be a little dicey with the morning on Thursday looking best with a light offshore, while we may see devil north-east winds moving in Friday thanks to the high strengthening and moving further east.

Luckily we're due to see the next flurry of strong and persistent frontal activity moving in behind the high, bringing an active second half of the waiting period.

From Tuesday onwards, building levels of at least moderate sized mid-period swell along with favourable winds should develop, though we'll provide another update on this next week.

The below chart is a good proxy for frontal/storm activity, with red = higher pressure and no swell, while blue = more storms and an increased chance of favourable swells.

Geopotential height at 500hPa anomaly (blue = storms, red = inactivity) (ECMWF)

As you can see we'll see high pressure move in behind all the current swell generating activity right up to the start of the waiting period, then hopefully giving way to swell producing storms. Check back next week for an update on how things are panning out.