Forecast Update: Lexus Pipe Pro
Lexus Pipe Pro
January 29th - February 10th, 2024
The waiting period for the Pipe Pro kicked off today but the contest went straight into a lay day. This was unfortunate as a new mid-period west-northwest swell made landfall, however it was being torn up by persistent south-west (Kona) winds.
The winds are being brought on by North Pacific storms, and their associated fronts, projecting too close to the islands. The strongest of these fronts is moving through today and will produce larger surf into tomorrow, but yet again we'll see unfavourable, onshore winds - this time westerly tending north-westerly.
The front will clear off into Wednesday allowing for better offshore, E/SE winds to kick in along with easing levels of mid-period W/NW swell energy.
Though the morning may still be lumpy, Wednesday looks to be the first day of competition with sets easing from the 8-10ft range along with relatively light if not variable sea breezes.
Thursday also looks nice and clean but the swell will be on the way out, small and weak so likely a lay day.
Following this, we're looking at no return to competition until next Monday, with Friday till Sunday seeing strong winds out of the north-eastern quadrant along with steeply angled N/NE swell - not good for Pipe or Backdoor - in the moderate to large size range.
Monday will see a large, long-period swell make landfall. The swell is the product of a strong low spawning off Japan later this week, with a significant fetch of severe-gale to storm-force westerly winds forecast. The models diverge slightly regarding the core strength of this low, with the European version (ECMWF) coming in weaker than the American version (GFS).
With this we'll put a small asterisk next to the forecast size on Monday, but we should see the long-period NW groundswell reaching at least 8-10ft along with strong easterly trade-winds. The lay days called this week and weekend are under the proviso that this swell (and the following one) deliver. Organisers will be watching them closely.
Though twelve days distant, and hence open to change, the last pulse of swell in the waiting period is a moderate-large mid-period from the northwest. At this stage - again, open to change - the winds look good. With four full days of competition - 32 hours - required to run the Men's and Women's the organisers may need this swell to avoid running in easing surf this Thursday and next Tuesday.
Follow the comments below for any adjustments to the updated forecast.
Comments
Nice one Craig.
Looks like that really strong zonal jet which has facilitated that very southwards storm track and W-S wind regime slowly breaks down and we go back to trades next week.
What’s usually the best period for pipe/backdoor?
Ask Kelly.
I did
Mid-period W/NW for Pipe. A bit more north for Backdoor.
It’ll be interesting to see if they send the women out in big pipe or, like previous years, wait for fun sized backdoor. Looks like they’ll have the full range of conditions over the waiting period. No doubt most of the girls now are ready for the big stuff, especially after that final in the Vans comp.
I’m still holding out hope that they give Moana a wildcard into the men’s comp too, and she draws Felipe at 10ft pipe.
Absolutely no way they will send the girls out in big pipe. I wish they would, but it won't happen
Is Sasha from W.A competing?Asking for a friend....
“ Thursday also looks nice and clean but the swell will be on the way out, small and weak so likely a lay day.
Following this, we're looking at no return to competition until next Monday.”
Knowing the WSL, they’ll run Thurs thru Sun..
Thanks Craig - those days in the timeline - are they Hawaii days or Aus days?
Hawaiian. So for us, the next day but early morning. Should see the contest kick off early tomorrow morning.
Thanks mate - something about the -18hrs time difference confuses the hell out of me!
From the Beach
So when are they going to run now ?
They'll have to run tomorrow and the final day looks fun and to 6ft or so. In between not sure.
Thanks !
Everyone can post socials vids here of pros getting waves today
I’ll start with EE, the Italo one is good too if someone wants to post it
Italo from a different angle.
Jack with the hourglasses telling them they’re running out of time?
Maybe the wsl really don't want the best waves for their contests?
Can,t be sexist and not run the chicks , too dangerous for the world champ.
Can't even blame elo and his "poo poo touch"
Pro surfing drives itself headlong into irrelevance
Strider has a few waves from the afternoon, looks like lobby got an absolute bomb
LOB!
Liam O’Br’irons.
One final update, the W/NW tending N/NW swell due into Friday afternoon, peaking Saturday (final day of the waiting period) looks to be decent. A peak generally in the 6-8ft range is due with favourable winds.
So, what you’re saying is the WSL contest will run on Thursday?
Ha!