Forecast Update: Hurley Pro Sunset Beach
The Hurley Pro Sunset Beach
February 12th - 22nd, 2024
All dates are local Hawaiian
Despite having all the drama of a soap opera, the Pipe Pro finished on the right note thanks to a groundbreaking day of waves on the last day of the waiting period. Now that Pipe is in the bag, let's take a closer look at what's in store for Sunset.
The waiting period began today, yet as was mentioned in the early forecast, the first half of the period appears a no go thanks to minimal levels of swell, followed by deteriorating conditions, and then an XXL swell for the end of the week.
Let's talk about that XXL swell.
Over the coming days, the storm that generates it will project east-southeast towards Hawaii, reaching peak intensity as it crosses the international date line. Hawaii's west and north shores will see the swell build rapidly through Thursday's daylight hours, peaking sometime overnight, with Friday dawning to very large swell out of the northwest.
Owing to the proximity of the storm, the local winds on Thursday (as the swell builds) will be strengthening from the north-northwest, making Sunset unsurfable, while on Friday they'll remain gusty from the north-northeast. It's worth noting here that the Eddie Aikau Invitational has been placed on a yellow alert for Friday though it's a line-ball whether it'll run. Light onshores are workable at big Waimea - some surfers even think they're preferable - but strong onshores add a whole 'nother layer of danger.
At any rate, the swell on Friday will be too big for Sunset so the next possible day would be Saturday. However, it too will remain poor as the swell eases towards a managable size (for Sunset) yet the winds remain strong from the north-northeast. Sunset's open-ocean arena will remain wild. Late in the day it may settle enough for good video footage to emerge, however Hawaii's stringent contest restrictions will likely overrule waiting for that to happen.
The ocean will finally become more organised into Sunday, with strong east-northeast trade-winds and a large pulse of reinforcing swell from dawn to 10-12ft. It'll be mid-period energy and more northerly than the existing swell, generated by a secondary low firing up in the wake of the current storm.
From this vantage point, conditions appear to be boisterous and classically Sunset: big, windy, with a mixed swell confusing newcomers but having enough pattern recognition to reward the faithful. Considering the new pulse, the size should hang in most of the day, so it'll be a 50/50 call on whether competition will be called on. If the storm downgrades a little it'll greatly increase the chances of Sunday being the first day of competition.
If the WSL don't run on Sunday then they'll once again be praying for a late blast, and they may get it. Whatever happens, Monday should be a competition day with easing north swell from the 6 foot+ range under strong east-northeast trades.
Smaller surf will follow into the final days of the waiting period, with one final long-range northwest groundswell likely showing on Thursday, the 22nd - the last day of the waiting period.
It's still a long way out, confidence isn't high, so we'll have to keep an eye on this and provide updates over the coming week.
Comments
It's crazy that the WSL have cut waiting periods to be so short. No wonder they get skunked for waves so often now.
So short? The window is eleven days, the longest event window I can recall (say, a decade ago) was thirteen.
Yeah other events are much shorter, 8 days or so last year, but looks like most are 10 this year.
They used to run for 2 weeks
To that end, I picked out a random event from the ASP archives - 2012 Billabong Pipe Masters - and checked the surf relative to the waiting period, which was 13 days. No Women's event either so only three days required.
Day 1 passed with no competition, but they ran Day 2 and Day 3 in pumping 6ft+ surf.
Four days of poor conditions then passed with no competition, before they eventually completed the event on Day 8. As per the press release that morning:
"We have building swell this morning and expect conditions to clean up as well so we’ll commence the final day of competition at 9am,” Marty Thomas, Vans Triple Crown Contest Director said. “Looking at the remainder of the competition window, the best conditions will be today and we will finish the Billabong Pipe Masters, the Vans Triple Crown and the 2012 ASP World Championship Tour season by day’s end.”
The surf was solid but tricky, however the surf forecast must not have been very good - so even though there were another five days in the window, this was the best they expected. Here's the highlight reel:
Point being: an extra couple of days doesn't guarantee excellent surf for any event, anywhere in the world.
While a couple of extra days doesn't guarantee excellent surf for an event (there are obviously no guarantees when it comes to surfing), it dramatically increases the chances. This was so clearly demonstrated last year when for many of the events the surf pumped both before and after the waiting period while the contests got skunked.
The WSL would further increase the chances of scoring if they ran in peak season.
I'm sure they'd be keen to have month-long waiting periods if it were feasible.
Unfortunately, there are many factors - some of which are in their control, others that are not - that dictate the length of each event window.
Sure, but the thing is, the waiting periods used to be longer. The Hawaiian contests used to be in December.
These are changes that the WSL have made, which reduces their chances of scoring good surf for their contests. And good surf is by far the most important factor in a contest being a good one.
See my example above? Three comp days required out of a thirteen day waiting period in December for the 2012 Pipe Masters, and they only saw two days of great waves.
I feel the mags used to juice up the contest articles and only run photos from the best days.
When everything went live_ feed, conditions were exposed .
Conditions s were dandy for pipe last saturday.
I’ve heard that a NRL broadcast costs somewhere around $250,000. That would include the truck satellite uplink time and crew. Now the WSL doesn’t have nearly as much gear as the NRL would but they do a lot longer days and obviously more days. I reckon it would be $100,000 a day just for the broadcast
You would think that extending the waiting period would be a relatively small percentage cost increase for the overall budget, against the greater probability of having a successful contest (ie one with good surf).
But I guess that's for the failing WSL to calculate.
You are assuming that they are allowed to have longer waiting periods than they currently do. There could be other factors at play (besides cost).
I note that there's only one day off between Pipe and Sunset, then a thirteen day break before Portugal kicks off. Given the enormous travelling sideshow of the WSL these days, that's pretty tight.
Wasn't a problem with their old schedule.
Surely they could have started Pipe earlier if the tightness of the first 3 comps was an issue?
Are you arguing for the sake of arguing?
Hang on, am I?
hehehe
I guess I'm just extremely frustrated with the direction of the WSL.
I want to see more days like Saturday (Hawaiian time), and less like Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday/Friday.
He He "Travelling Sideshow"
Full blown circus more like!
Heavy on the clowns.
Picturing Turpel in a big red car with all the gear stacked on the roof, but no boards.
You factoring in transit costs for equipment?
Nrl goes down the street wos heads go all over the world.....
So the bulk of the cost is in the initial set-up. Not in the contingency for staying an extra few days.
I don't know if you've ever had a business Stamos, ...but employees are a nightmare
L O L.........
bro the waiting period was larger and mainly there was only one tour stuffed in there. Now there's a shorter waiting period even though longer than last year's but still, girls and boys all in. It's basically a huge blow on the chance to score good waves
Agree
10 days for a waiting period isn’t too bad. Portugal only had a 8 day waiting period last year. From my memory however 12 days used to be about the norm?
In any case agreed that it’s not long enough to run 4 days of competition. I’d rather see 14 day waiting periods with less comps to offset the increased waiting periods. Drop sunset, Margs and El Salvador. Unfortunately Brazil has to stay on tour for commercial reasons.
Why can't they call a contest when the swell is due to come in, the way they do with big wave contests?
Fickle beast,
Onshore sunset when big is sketchy
Onshore pipe when big is just plain dangerous.
Onshore north shore sucks.....
Funky start to year re world Champs and forecasts
Great post. Love it.
Looks like the right at Kong’s Island
Other than strict comp times in Hawaii Eg 8am to 4 pm are there any other restrictions like the number of days a contest can be run?I recall in past due to need to give time for recreational surfers maybe California you needed to pick out the 4 days you wanted BEFORE the contest started?does that apply for sunset of something similar
Only 1 contest runs at one time.
Limited permits
Woke inclusions coming down the pipeline....
No contests on public holidays.
So no Easter at Bells ?
When did Bells become Part of Hawaii ...
What I mean is, why is it paused for US holidays , but not our public holidays ? It’s aWORLD comp. Are no sports competitions allowed on US public holidays ( in the US) ? Surely that would mean more spectators on their day off.
Wonder if the barrels at Sunset will score less than a couple of top turn carves this year....?
Big Boards Man Turns
Amazing Cheyne riding that clunky tracky 7'7" thruster demolished everyone. Cheyne was so muscular he was just burying/sinking the tail with those tube stalls. Ironic he demolished everyone even though his single fin surfing was so fast, on rail & spectacular, particularly on those 1984 Lexcen designed/TF shaped winged keel. Hard to understand why Cheyne abandoned those 1984 boards and surfed those crappy slow double-ender boards in the later movie called Scream In Blue.
White Lexcen/TF boards in segment at 9.03 in the video (which starts with a few Lazor Zap waves but then has a Velzyland session on a 1984 winged keel) https://eos.surf/video/entry/video-waterborn-by-bill-delaney/
That Cheyne section was magic, those vicious pivot bottom turns to set up the tube, incredible.
Big drones
Good to see potential for a proper Sunset day in the mix...if they run.
Maybe 2 even.
I like the overlapping heats in the water, way more interesting Especially at macking sunset.
The only catch is non priority heat surfers taking off further out and then priority heat surfers gazumping them down the line.
The can fix that by only awarding priority when you get out the back.
Wonder if anyone will sit at proper sunset
Or just shoulder hop on short boards......
Send Jack Johnson out there to show them how it's done LD!!
As a good a wave as you could ever imagine at Sunset.
Cracker eh!
Tryna find that out as we speak.
Ross Williams needs a spot in the comp
That second snap was pretty ferocious.
Detailed forecast here.
And another..
Well he gave a little bit of info at least.
Yeah that was great.
Good to see Tommy Carroll chipping in on the comments about using the whole lineup.
Rules should be, if you only ride half the wave, you only get half the score.
No score over 5 for waves not ridden from out the back.
And put Kong on as head judge.
throw munga in there for priority duties!
Makua, Mason, Kenny also !
Waves look good ha Vince!
Kai Lenny insinuating that Saturday will be an obvious start day. I'd say, maybe, possibly, a low outside chance, and even then it'd only happen late in the day, meaning if they're even allowed to considering City of Honolulu comp restrictions.
Love to see it though.
When was the last time they held a comp at Sunset where guys, or gals, did take off on the Outside Peak?
I can't remember it- all the comps I've seen in the last decade they have used that halfway take-off.
Seems to be completely accepted practice now.
Probably closer to two decades.
Went down a 'video of old Sunset' rabbit hole this morning - had to extricate myself cos there were so many, and often entertaining too. Unfortunately not that many comp vids and those that are there are inconclusive.
Bruce Jenner hosting! Never seen him in a surf vid before.
Sick. Has anyone bettered Tommy Carrols backhand at Sunset?
I remember Connor Oleary belting one a couple of years ago, but can't think of anyone consistently surfing with power straight up and down on huge Sunset walls like T.C did. Feel like i'm forgetting someone obvious...
Gabby goes pretty good.
Ramzi should be good to watch
True on Gabs, first i thought of that comes close.
Yeah be great to see Ramzi powering out there.
Never seen Gabby footage of anything bigger than 6-8 foot out there but would love to see him on a massive day
Yeah i reckon would be insane to see.
Thinking about it, TC, Gabs and Connor all have massive legs.
Obviously a handy trait on the backhand to hold those long bottom turns for as long as possible over huge sections/chatter etc.
My recollection is Tom was riding a single fin in that 1982 comp; as can be seen at 12:52 in the video.
1982, riding a single fin, Tom Carroll demolished everyone for his first ever world tour contest win. Amazing performance. Totally on.
Forecast Update:
Things are starting to firm up for the outlook now and it looks like we could see pumping surf through the second half of the waiting period.
This weekend still looks too large and wild and unlikely to run with, poor strong N/NE winds on Saturday with oversized, easing swell, while Sunday's reinforcing pulse of N'ly swell will also be accompanied by strong NE tending E/NE winds.
We're looking at unruly 10-12ft surf across Sunset Sunday and with better conditions and surf due from Monday they might call it a lay day.
We've got a good reinforcing pulse of large N/NE swell for Monday, building back to 6-8ft+ through the day with favourable E/NE trades.
With these north swells we can expect Sunset to run longer from deeper, also throwing up some great inside barrel sections.
From Wednesday through the rest of the waiting period, we're looking at less consistent but good NW groundswell energy in the 6-8ft range along with favourable, weaker E/SE morning winds, variable into the afternoons.
There's the chance for a larger pulse of swell for the final day of the waiting period but regardless it looks great.
That'll work !
Hooray! Nice work Craig.
"Big and Onshore is a South Africans game."
Wonder why he uses a tail pad. I can imagine you're foot is back there too often on a 10'6
Not even close.
Forgot how amazing that wave was. Insane.
Yeah, man that's nuts!
Haha I was wondering the same thing about the tailpad looking at the pics!
Heckas wave too!
So just an update on Monday, they can't run!
It's a bloody holiday day, FFS. One of the best days of the period as well :/
Only in America :-(
However it forces them to run on Saturday or Sunday, so the plebeians will be entertained with some maxing Sunset.
ha. True!
Yeah, that's a plus!
Insane.
So the actual waiting period is only 10 days, not 11.
Another way that the WSL is stuffing up the scheduling.
Tues/Weds look the better days though? winds looks more offshore than Monday no?
Winds are great Tuesday/Wednesday but still very good Monday.
ahh sorry I see you said "one of the best days"
but yeah gonna force them to run Sunday now, 10-15ft strong crosshsores.. gonna be wild viewing!
Give Turpel a holiday and let Aussies and THE RESTOF THE WORLD commentate etc . It is the WORLD surf league. Does that mean we lose 3 days at Easter bells ? Or just American holidays ? Ridiculous. I was looking forward to Monday.
The tarps not looking very strong, stressful night tonight for him
gonna be interesting to see some of the girls heats, with no smaller days in the waiting period they're gonna be forced to send them out in some solid stuff... only a handful of them will handle it I reckon! Molly for the win!
It’s going to be good. as above….Molly for the win.
Saw some footage somewhere of Caity, and she was drawing some beautiful lines as only she does on some big chunky walls.
While Sunset's on hold, anyone know if they're showing this live later tonight (i think..or maybe tomorrow night)?
Big wave comp at Todos Santos has the green light.
Nathan Florence one of the invitees.
Any word on this