I promise I won't pick your forecast to bits this time SD :-) and attribute the call to you if it's a winner

thermalben wrote:

Sheepdog wrote:

Ben - That predicted "secondary low" is currently the eastern flank of Ita..... Without Ita , the secondary low would not be hypothetically forming

No, it's not "currently" the eastern flank of TC Ita. It's a possible forecast solution from the GFS model (and, other models don't have it, so there's a reasonable chance it may not happen).

As for hypothesising what may cause this secondary low to develop - if it develops - well, that's a chicken and egg scenario.

Ben, As I wrote; "That PREDICTED secondary low" is currently the eastern flank of Ita..... Without Ita , the secondary low would not be HYPOTHETICALLY forming".......

That is my response to YOUR comment at 7.19am -"In fact, GFS is developing a small secondary low (possibly low end TC range) to the SE of TC Ita over the weekend that's more likely to generate an E/NE swell for SE Qld."

I was simply responding to your 7.19am comment, and I did make it quite clear that we are dealing with a "hypothetical prediction"....... A hypothetical prediction that your wams pinpoint as a split off from Ita - At 12pm today, it HYPOTHETICALLY shows a small pocket of low pressure splitting off the ese flank of Ita, and by 6am sat, it is trying to ramp up.... By 6pm Sat, it has become it's own entity...

So, we'll agree to disagree about a hypothetical......????? I stand by "hypothetically" speaking, the "predicted" secondary low is thanks to Ita......
ps - the egg came first.....;)

Cord to the horizon!

Brown cord as well, old school!

SD I personally think the secondary low is a function of both Ita and the Tasman low. Without either there wouldn't be a trough of low pressure to allow the secondary low to form up. And that secondary low can spin up anywhere along that trough so watch this space if it does actually happen.

The broad trough is the main requirement. We've seen plenty of small lows in the southern Coral Sea before, without the concurrent presence of a Cat 5 cyclone or a Tasman low!

Earth.null looks great.. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/04/11/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthog…

Shit! Never seen that Earth.Null before Craig. Awesome :)

Mitch - ratshit bay , or Buchans bar or yorkeys cove at low tide.. Don't expect much... shame it's not off the coast...
Don... the "predicted" secondary low doesn't exist on some charts.... But the models where it does exist, it clearly shows the low forming out of the remnants of Ita.
Swellnets mslp here - https://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/queensland/gold-coast/wams
Note 12am sat thru 12pm sat - 1008h isobar, forming ese of Ita....

Also note "your site" Bellmere weather" 11/4 2200 thru 12/4 2200....

Yeah Craig, but luckily there's fresh water creeks to wash in :-)
Cheers SD. Checked all those spots and yeah, plenty of waves but really short rides and no real take off spots. Still, something there to punch against if you're quick

As NSW is maxing, so it is up here. 5ft (Max) peaks and 3 ft walls! Yew! Check nine new if ya can