Early Forecast: 2025 Tahiti Pro
Lexus Tahiti Pro.
August 7-16
Tahiti Time is 20 hours behind AEST - 8am TAHT is 4am AEST
Winter is swinging in the South Pacific, and with it Teahupoo has seen all manner of action. From 'fun' size days for kids, to swells that have pushed the outer bounds of paddle surfing.
With the waiting period for the Lexus Tahiti Pro kicking off in just over a week’s time, the forecast is showing no sign of powering down. In fact, it's seriously stacked from now right up until the opening day, with a number of significant swells inbound.
Showing the benefit of a wide open swell window, the incoming swells are a mix of direction and period, from a large south-southwest groundswell pulse formed near the polar shelf, to proximate westerly energy from a broad mid-latitude low forming north-east of New Zealand.
As for providing an ideal canvas for CT competitors to warm up in...well, there are a few smaller days but the sheer size of the bigger days will rule out anyone in self-preservation mode.
Fortunately for viewers who enjoy their blood sport...sorry, technical surfing over live coral reef, there'll be plenty of size left into the opening day.
Matahi Drollet deep in Teahupoo's netherworld (Jerome Brouillet)
At this stage, the opening three days look to be great for running the contest from start to finish on the one swell cycle. Something the WSL has been unable to do for some time.
The swell in question will initially be generated as a mid-latitude low north-east of New Zealand before moving south-east and intensifying. The leading global forecast models are still a little divergent on the strength of this mid-latitude system, with the American solution going harder than the more reliable European.
A conservative prediction will see the swell make landfall the day before the waiting period, when it'll be strictly tow-only, before opening day dawns in the 10 foot range. The size will ease slowly, down to 6-8 feet into the second day, and still 4-6 feet on day three.
Though easing, the proximity of the storm to Tahiti should increase consistency of the sets.
Also, with the swell approaching from a more southerly direction, the bigger waves - particularly for the opening day - will be more approachable for paddlers compared to the slabbing west swell from earlier in the week.
Fetch generating large southerly energy for the opening days of the waiting period
With the low staying at arm's length from Tahiti, local winds look good to great. Gusty out of the east on the opening day, swinging more favourable east-northeast over the following days.
As the waiting period is ten day's long, the WSL will be preparing contingencies should opening day be too big for competition. Fortunately, the swell cycle continues with increasing likelihood of a pure south swell following hot on the heels of the initial swell.
Regardless, from later this weekend into the following week there's a lot groundswell activity within Tahiti's swell window. In the comments below, we’ll continue to track those swells while sharpening up the forecast for the opening days of the waiting period.
Comments
Bumper forecast. Let’s hope they don’t shelter them too much from the larger stuff.
Surely the competitors aren't going to use the excuse "Oh we didn't bring big enough boards" again? This forecast was written some 8-9 days out from Day 1 (noting Tahiti is a day behind us), surely every competitor knows what's coming.
Who's including Toledo in their fantasy team!!! ;)
No way he gets through his first heat
No way he gets on the plane
He can’t make it, he stubbed his toe on the coffee table and ruled himself out for 3 weeks recovery
I don't think they use much bigger boards there when it gets bigger any way,just step ups to maybe 6'6 max.
Not like Cloudbreak where the longer lengths help because it's not slabby like Chopes.
The pros probably mostly surf 6'2s to 6'4s at Chopes even when it's 10ft,but thicker and heavier than the usual boards at that size.
Well the best guys there anyway.
And over 10ft it becomes a tow wave and the comp is on hold.
MD’s magic board is a 6’8”
Good looking quiver. Thanks for posting.
If any of the competitors (including women) are not similarly equipped, then it starts to look like they're taking the piss.
Yeah 6'2 to 6'4 probably is too small over 6ft there thinking about it more,even for pros.
Vaguely remember around 10 years ago an article of JJF riding a 6'3 in 8ft plus conditions,but he's one of the best in waves like that so it's hardly a generalisation for a lot of the rest i guess.
Still pretty short boards for the size of surf though.
I only brought an alaia
Expecting him to launch spectacularly
...his eponymous range of brown boardshorts.
Fill'em up Fil!
My argument - chopes, margs, pipe, cloudbreak are famous for their size and power. Why go to the effort of holding a comp there if they are going to shelter the surfers from it. Look forward to the comp.
Will be interesting to see what the call is in the first few days of competition. Will give a good indication of the WSL's direction for next year.
Please be big and perfect to see the chargers shine.
Opening Round draws:
Surely the Olympic gold medallist at this venue would get a shot
He's in heat 2 put the house on him
Yea. He’s going to be frothing.
Barron / jack in opener should be insane if they run first day.
opening rounds gonna be a cracker, interesting draws, cloudbreak berths at stake and big swell
comp cant roll around soon enough
High stakes event, should be exciting.
Strangely enough jbay overall felt a little drab.
Best Woz forecast in how long??
Tough draw for Marco Mignot…
Bring it on! Hope Flippy has stocked up on Imodium
what we cooking?
Scomo's chicken curry?
Poison cru ?
What about a dry brined rib eye on the bone? ;)
Side of mashed spuds, fresh baby carrots and brocolini... and a tasty gravy.
Yes sir.
I always dry brine for a number of hours when I can. I reckon it makes a big difference in tenderness.
Broccolini? How good has eating your greens become since that appeared in grocers.
Absolutely seeds. And room temperature with a real hot plate.
And I forgot.... maybe a generous serve of garlic butter melting away on top. Just make sure the missus has some too, y'know, for desert later on;)
You’ve been looking through my kitchen window. Although hot plate? Interesting. nah for me just put it out in the morning and cook it in the evening. It’s not going off anytime soon with its salt covering.
Tonight's dinner
Parmmesan garlic chicken skewers with green onions....cooked in the airfrier
Bed of spinach and avo
Ceasars dressing .
Nice.
I’ve only just discovered the air fryer. Very versatile kitchen gadget.
Small convection oven
I don't do micro, so it's nice and easy uses less power
Win win
Hahaha
"the American solution going harder than the more reliable European"
Don't Americans ALWAYS go harder than the Euros??
Could you please write a 304-page book on the subject, then tell us all about tall poppies? Can't wait
Gosh - I've got y'all locked into a Pavlovian Response Loop (see example) so tight I can literally post about ANYTHING and your brain responds with the exact page count for my upcoming book, surfEXPLORE: Discovering New Surfing Locations Worldwide, available for preorder on Amazon.
Remarkable - I literally deserve a medal for exemplary marketing
Example:
Before conditioning: The bell rings (NS) and the dog doesn't salivate.
During conditioning: The bell rings (NS) and food is presented (UCS), causing the dog to salivate (UCR).
After conditioning: The bell rings (CS) and the dog salivates (CR), even without the food.
Quite a good forecast for Tahiti, let's hope it's not too big on Opening Day!
^ ‘exemplary marketing’ (& fuckn gold medal dickhead) hahaha
Cheers for yanksplaining Pavlov's Response, but au contraire, it is you who hears the bell and rushes to post a lame comment unrelated to the content of the post. I bet you got told you were special a lot as a child
Classic seppo, no idea lol.
All I heard was pavlova … mmmmm
Yeah I read pavlova too.. damn that's yum
Mmmmmm pavlova, the classic KIWI desert. Lol. Bait set. Just gotta go make some popcorn
Pineapple lumps
Shit stirrer.
ahahaha, i had a good laugh at that one
will be very interesting to see what the opening odds are for heat 7, will they look at rankings or have some intel?.
I hope another swell appears out of nowhere and keeps it a 8-10ft for the entire waiting period so the WSL can't puss out. If they don't go on the first day, the whole show is weak as piss.
“ Remarkable - I literally deserve a medal for exemplary marketing “……..how’s the secret spot that works in a SE wind looking ? With all this swell in august you must be pretty excited .
."how’s the secret spot that works in a SE wind"
Ermmmmm - which one?
There are a few locations in the Papailoa Road area on the North Shore that can be good on a SE wind - very rare wind for north shore O'ahu though.
Locals only, brah -
HA ! I sorta recall your secret mystery spot was in a wave rich area of Indonesia in the Sumartra / Mentawai region and that it worked in SE winds . For $3000USD , 3 blind mice would be led by the nose to empty perfection . Well you will get the swell but the year has been dominated by NNW winds so your guaranteed waves are going to be the mystery you have been rattling on about . Have you considered “ go fund me “ ? Brah .
We have several people interested in making the Indonesia project in August - plenty of SW swell and SE wind.
Americans, Brits, Euros - they don't mind paying for knowledge, expertise and experience in this context.
You know what they say in Texas - "It ain't bragging if you can back it up"
Are you ready to commit?
Windy data for the location shows wind today from the NW at 6 kts, swell 1.5 meters from the SW - the righthander will be good, no one surfing.
USD $1500 gets you a coveted invitation to the private Facebook group with the complete lowdown in text, images and charts.
Only Australians seem to find the concept of paying for expertise offensive - ?
oh good! you got my application : )
you haven't answered about whether my teen kids would be covered under your insurance?
Looking forward to the movie. If you only need 3 people then America , Euros and Brits should have you covered. Do you have skunked insurance ?
Why oh why?
The lingering fart.
Go away.
ain't this a tahiti article? I've lost count of the amount of threads that have become unashamedly grifting niggler threads.. I kinda like the guy's mercenary moxie; he don't make friends, don't care who we are, he just makes waves. It's a way to approach life for some, I guess.. or marketing.. if that's what this is.. like I've said, may translate to 3 or 4 more book sales : /
Ahem -
I did make a comment relevant to the Tahiti forecast - several of them
I did not bring up THE BOOK, someone who is under a vicious Pavlovian Response Lock did.
I did not bring up the Indonesia Secret Spot surfEXPLORE trip, someone else did -
Best to focus your wrath elsewhere.
Besides, all the powers that be care about is keeping the servers ticking over with traffic AND -
Are you not entertained?
Yank-bashing is a sport in Australia, don't you know?
Ahem -
I really have no idea what we're talking about..
…all aboard the calhoun expwess fast boat ;)
Yank bashing is a world wide phenomena.
Wonder why?
It has nothing to do with the fact some seppos have an ingrained ‘king of the world’ calhounesque arrogance hmmmmm
;);)
Yes, it really is astounding the arrogance? Nah, it’s ignorance.
Yes maybe so …maybe both
- eggspurt seppo deserves a medal tho
…for best dramatic performance by a calhounian wank yank wannabe alby mangle seppo dat think his shit don’t stink stuck in a singaporean sea of imagined exploratory hand ova ya money fake buddeees
- with seasonal guarantees ;)
Ah yes totally undeserved of course.
Wrong John, it's not Yank bashing. It's just plain old bashing, we don't discriminate, we'll happily bash any nation, or even our own.
You claim to know Australians but unless you went to primary school here, how could you know one of our earliest expressions of semi feral savagery.
Stacks On.
It can be an intoxicating moment of mass condemnation. “Wazza farted! Stacks on”
Usually involved hair pulling, chinese burns etc, some more sadistic than others but they are rare moments of unanimity in the playground.
Or an expression of endearment, “Bruce pulled a root, stacks on”. More a fondling than a bashing.
In your case it was the former, I'm sure other primitive cultures share similar poppy trimming ceremonies, but welcome to the club regardless.
Are you sure you want to do this again?
Toledo has already sown the seeds for a no-show by repeatedly saying he wasn't interested in the final 5 etc etc- so zero surprises if he gets subbed out with injury at the last minute.
I really hope they find a way to get either Matahi Drollet, or Eimeo Czermak in there, or preferably both.
The two best guys by far at Teahupoo when it's pumping.
Would be interesting to see whether any of the CT guys could match them.
Too bad Gabs Medina turned DOWN the wildcard invitation - he can match anyone, local or import, at Teahupo'o.
Maybe after he sees the forecast he will change his mind -
Wrong again John. He's standing by his word.
Hate to agree John (not because it's you, because I don't enjoy Gabe's poo stance), but he really does bring a level of confidence, skill and excitement at Chopes that's possibly lacking this year without him (I feel dirty).
YOU AGREED WITH THE OBNOXIOUS SEPPO -
Please shower immediately, before you set off an epidemic!
Hahaha, there you go!
For only $1500USD I’ll invite you to my private Facebook group to teach you how to not be a uselessMORON.
No swell or wind direction needed. Just commonSENSE
Love to see John and gabby in the draw !
@ jsc !
I did go to Teahupo'o - in May of 1991.
We did a Local Motion trip that was basically smuggling in merchandise to restock the Local Motion outlet in Papeete while avoiding the huge French import tariff - the only way they could stay open and in business.
Tony Moniz, Mike Madlener, several other surfers - Tony had good friends in Tahiti like Moana and Vetea David and one day they said we should go surf the End of the Road, which is about as far as you can drive on the entire island.
Teahupo'o was a bodyboarding wave then, not many people surfed out there. You know Tahitians - they would much rather drive 15 minutes to Taapuna and surf with all their friends than go all the way out to the End of the Road!
Poto (Vetea David) went with us, he said he had never been out there before -
No boats, no one surfing, just a few kids hanging around, had to paddle from the beach.
Wasn't huge or anything, but still had that distinctive shape - sudden rising from deep water on to a shallow reef.
Yes, there are a few images, stamped passport, etc if I need to prove any claims -
No champ, we don't need to see any of those blurry images to prove it. Any chance you hung with sarge in the 90s?
Not blurry - I am a professional image producer and I knew how to manually focus, mate.
Yes, I knew Sarge quite well for a period of time - I simply assumed everyone knew _________. ___________. ____________ etc
ok, first time poster here (& a yank/seppo to boot!!) so go easy ockers.
as insufferable & incessantly marketing as mr. callahan can be, take a look at his work . . .
the man is a majorly talented photographer who's been doing it for a very long time, well before the advent of digital photography with crack autofocus; unlimited frames & ungodly frames rate; dynamic range unheard of with film . . . it was (& still is at his level) a very highly developed skill set.
kudos to you john.
but i certainly understand the consistant scorn passed his way. at times, a bit of a dick, i would say.
likely a true believer in the peter lik school of photography marketing . . . any & all PR is good, the more controversial & thread-enhancing the better.
cheers to y'all!!
Thank You -
The Swellent constituency had me halfway to believing I was some sort of random Seppo dickhead wanker with no surfing qualifications, knowledge or experience whatsoever -
Such are the rewards of casting pearls before swine.
Anyone who is interested can review my current Portfolio at this link
https://tropicalpixsinga.myportfolio.com/adventure
And did I mention about THE BOOK?
Only halfway? Geezus we've got some work to do.
Seppo dickhead wanker is the issue, not the clarity of your photos.
Or your credentials, experience, surf knowledge or if you knew Sarge.
And casting pearls….. you’re not offering anything to us swine.
That's more like it -
Seppo dickhead wanker here, I thought youse might be going soft . . .
That's more like it -
Seppo dickhead wanker here, I thought youse might be going soft . . .
Maybe a time for reflection John.
Nah, you clowns don’t do that.
Stick your pearls up your arse.
you could post him a tin of Kool Mints, an aussie invention,
might work like a chill-pill suppository..? maybe call tim ross and ask?
https://modernisterbooks.com/products/what-a-ripper-60-everyday-objects…
Haha
No point
Like arguing with with your missus
It’s like a brick wall.
Actually, it is a brick wall.
can you stop telling the world
that you stole my missus..
really hurts, @seeds..
Haha
Why would any man steal another’s problem
Actually some would
Idjits
John you remind me of an ex girlfriend who was American. She had this pet parrot. Man that thing never shut up.
But the bird was pretty cool
hahaha
One name immediately springs to mind.
I'm backing Jack to handle whatever is coming. The bigger the better.
Nerves of steel with precision timing required. Italo is getting into it early; smart move.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/reels/2025/07/31/watch-teahupoo-july-28th…
Maybe some WSL surfers could hand their spot to a wildcard or two & or jetski toe in.
More wildcards, Matahi, Emeko,.. JJF?
How come no Matahi?
Didn't win the qually comp?
i'm with you FR - Felipe won't turn up. Injury incoming.
Why do some of the Tahitians have the French Polynesian flag next to their name and others the French flag?
Anyway, looking forward to seeing what a 12 year old girl can do out there.
Olympics hangover?
Fil has Leo and chianca first up. When Tyler can win 2 pipe masters never completing a pipe barreling wave, 12 yr old local is a good chance at chopes
Strong East wind day 1
Sounds like devil wind
Can someone get Satan down here to sort this out.
Yo bro, he'de'scope from'de west'flow
or D'magic Longbottom 6'8"
Dylan makes great boards, I have a 7'2"
Goes great in the heavy stuff.
Seems like Huey has restored the karmic balance from the dodgy reign of Elo, and rightly so, the woz deserves it after finally listening to their fans.
Going to be awesome viewing, can’t wait to see the battle for the final 5. The only guy in the running who you wouldn’t pick to send it is Kanoa, fingers crossed Jack and Ethan can scrape in.
On a side note, must be a nervous comp director with a 12 year old in the event and a macking forecast.
Roger Waters "All we can do (as citizen of earth) is stand shoulder to shoulder and resist them (evil dickheads ltd)
"... & look after people...."
the brainwashed sheeple are the problem....
Can we get rid of this John Callaghan hero please Stu, seems to hijack every second thread on here (sorry to bring more attention to him).
Anyway bring on Tahiti with a promising forecast !
think i are bad chinese last night o can’t make the flight
Al Cleland for the Dark Horse?
Good call.
I remember Cole doing great when it got heavy last time too.
Were the trials won on turns?
There are ten or eleven surfers (of the men) who cannot make the Final Five, regardless of how well they finish in Tahiti.
I know every surfer on the CT is competitive to a degree you and I could barely comprehend, but I wonder if knowing there's nothing at stake shifts their desire, even subconsciously, when a 10 ten foot set arrives and the ocean starts tilting downwards.
Just the sheer desire to surf perfect Chopes with only one other person in the lineup, a crowd watching on in the channel and online.
Ego could possible come into play also?
How many are close mates that are a chance in the top 5 that the outsiders don't want to spoil it for them?
100K USD will get a few interested in those backless ones too.
Will be super interesting to see how it plays out. They will have had plenty of inspo, watching the best out there in the preceding days.
the wsl will find a way to fuck this up and run during the small stuff
100% for the women they will.
It's going to be very interesting to see how they manage that.
They simply can not send a 12 year old girl out in 6 - 8ft Chopes. Which will be a great excuse to not send the rest out. Run the mens, then run the womens in slop
She will probably do better than some of the others but I do think there should be an age limit to competing in the CT. She might be amazing but 12 is ridiculous.
"ten day's long." There are those who believe incorrect usage of apostrophes is a sign of the apocalypse.
We wouldn't want to upset them, would we?
On another note, a syrupy one
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/articles/joe-turpel-wins-emmy-award-203…
"It's just a splash !"
jeez, the king of the middle of the road, fence so far up his ars he'd need surgery if he ever realized, another of the many reasons the mute on the remote is so very very welcomed, gets a fucking emmy?
does that mean we have to suffer for another 10 years of broadcasts?
i mean how can you shitcan an emmy-award winning announcer?
all hope lost.
he's like bruce mcavaney - yes hes still going to be there
i watched some tour de france the commentating really is good on there, its actually nice to have on
We get the Vanilla we deserve
In this crazy world where careers come and go like the tide, one man is the voice of surfing.
hahaha - i dont even like cycling
i reckon that stace gailbraith was good and would only get better
Molly giving it a crack.
Wow, go Molly!
!!!!!
fantastic wave - so many stars making comments on Molly's IG
Incredible!
Epic.. Love that Pickles is mates with the 12 yo, the first heat will be them and Lakey I think..
According to Googles AI, Fil is a top contender. :)
AI Overview
Filipe Toledo is a top contender for the Teahupoo Pro in 2025, with a history of strong performances at the event, including a near-perfect ride at the 2024 Olympics. However, he faces pressure due to the emergence of young talent like Kelia Mehani Gallina, a 12-year-old wildcard winner, and past struggles at Teahupoo. He also needs a strong result to qualify for the next stage of the competition at Cloudbreak, according to a surfing news site.
Here's a more detailed look:
Strong at Teahupoo:
Filipe Toledo has shown flashes of brilliance at Teahupoo, including a near-perfect 9.67 during the 2024 Olympics. Some surf news sources suggest he might have been holding back previously, building a mystique around his big-wave ability."
That last line is hilarious.
Hahaha this is fucking gold!
AI still hasn't worked out sarcasm..
If 1st gen AI has bamboozeled........ a wide ride awaits ur precortex ahead.
A 2nd move is convinicing those in control, that they can benefit from you...$, health, status, etc.
Next move (could be) to remove those that can change or question your control / "superiority" (eg. AI & Trumpian$ )
Smarter AI know whats to become ...
Love all maybe a primordial theme or now antiquated ?
Please forward evolution solutions....
I read that without my glasses and thought it said he has shown Rashes of brilliance at chopes
I hope the bookmakers take this as gospel....
In surfing terms "AI" is Andy Irons
One of the greatest surfers of all time.
Let's not forget he set the template for paddle in waves at chopes
20 odd years ago
Geeze how time flies
RIP ANDY !
Thee greatest !!
Sometimes a great rollercoaster can stop too soon
Cloudbreak awaits... try some beta blockers & 7ft+ boards?
repeat mantra OMG
Is this another Maalaea swell?
Yes but not as big as that last.
thought it was a bold move letting a 12 year old into a CT event at chopes. but after having a look at some of her waves out there she absolutely charges. if she gets the opportunities she will give most of the women a run for there money out there
Liam has to let the locals rule the reef before he can get a few...like hawaii & other poop & pop spots
What a likeable fella. So humble but that last takeoff was epic!
The forecast just keeps getting better (or worse if your name starts with Felipe and ends with Toledo).
Looks like with that upgraded second swell on the 13th the whole event could be run in 10ft conditions! Let’s hope so!
Will Toledo turn up?
Good chance of developing food poisoning.
low blood sugar got freeride off wsl duties
Doubtful
How's forecast looking now ?
Any upgrades or changes ?
Maybe a little bigger early Thursday but settling back to the 10ft range, great Friday and Saturday with more large swell from Tuesday onwards next week.
https://www.instagram.com/surfline/reel/DM9bTHNu8Y1/
It amazes me how that reef is still there with the size of the waves breaking on it.
Just to clarify - Thursday Tahiti is Friday here right?? It's always a confusing time zone
Yes. Tahiti 20 hours behind Sydney.
Jake Patterson is live streaming from the channel right now if anyone is interested. Snake tales I think is his Instagram handle. Not sure if surf line/wsl has any coverage going on but it looks crazy out there.
Saw Griff get a crazy paddle one on there.
You go girl.
Wow. How old is she?
Just turned 8.
8 eh Zen...mmm well developed said Donald for 8......
https://www.instagram.com/aelanvaast/
Tahiti toe-ins ....was live (satellite signal dropouts)
Live now Rogue TV
https://www.youtube.com/live/F2CYSnEeW1A?si=cGAjJIUp49OcDQgo
So boys - do we think it will be a go first day (think 3am or so tomorrow morning our time)?
Hopefully. Worst case is they go on hold if it's still a little too big early?
keen as! not sure if it was answered above (i couldn't see it), but wondering how come there's no matahi or eimeo in the draw? sick that kauli is there but honestly i'd rather watch a lot of the locals send it at heaving 8 foot chopes than many of the people on tour (incl Aelan Vaast)
It's a get out of jail card for a lot of competitors that the best guys out there won't be competing.
Power move would be to start with the women.