A Return To Caloundra Bar?

Stu Nettle (stunet)
Swellnet Analysis

Caloundra is the only beach on the Sunshine Coast with distinct northerly wind protection. This fact, combined with what were shifting tidal sandbanks made Caloundra Bar a regional classic when easterly lines hit the coast and the wind vane swung to the north.

As well as being a good wave, the bar offered ocean access to boat traffic in Pumicestone Passage, including the Coast Guard. Pumicestone Passage begins at Moreton Bay, 30 kms to the south, then forms the entire western shore of Bribie Island.

Click on the image to see Reef Heazlewood at Caloundra Bar during Cyclone Victor in January 2016.

Cyclone Victor also created this undidden gem at the bar.

In early January, 2022, waves from Cyclone Seth overtopped the northern tip of Bribie Island approximately 2 kms south of Caloundra Bar. The breakthrough immediately formed a new islet south of Caloundra Bar, however as the breakthrough grew it funnelled more tidal flow, which reduced the flow through Caloundra Bar.

Within a year, Caloundra Bar silted up due to the lack of tidal flow and the new breakthrough became the main outlet for Pumicestone Passage. Though it had its moments, the shifting channel never rivalled Caloundra in terms of wave quality - having the bar fixed by a northern rocky shore gave it dependable shape.

Caloundra Bar has now entirely silted up, closing all access even at high tides and forcing the Coast Guard to navigate the shoals of Pumicestone Passage, plus the shallower bar at the second breakthrough. (Bluey's Photography)

Just as locals were getting used to the new entrance, waves from Cyclone Alfred in March 2025 opened two more breakthroughs on the northern tip of Bribie Island. The final five kilometres of Bribie was significantly altered with vegetation swept away, the shoreline retreating west in a broad sandy shallow, and perhaps most critically, increased waves, tides, and erosion in the suburbs of Golden Beach and Pelican Waters.

September 2025, just before the emergency works began, and little of Bribie's northern tip remains. (Bluey's Photography)

If it weren’t for the final matter - the effect on the built environment - it’s likely nature would’ve been left to run its course at Bribie Island. Instead, the Queensland State Government commissioned a review to fix the ‘problem’. Then, in September, they began the Bribie Island emergency works.

The $20 million works will see sand dredged from the northern end of Pumicestone Passage and dumped onto the coast, effectively plugging the second and third breakthroughs, with vegetation hopefully taking hold before the cyclone season begins.

The recommended action was to also block the first breakthrough (the one created during Cyclone Seth) which would again direct all water flow through Caloundra Bar, allowing ocean access and, most importantly for those reading this article, turning Caloundra Bar into a surf spot again.

Unfortunately, the government stopped just short of that action. They expect water will again flow across the bar, however with no immediate plans to close the second breakthrough, then Caloundra Bar won't return to its original depth. Instead, they’ve chalked that up as a “long term strategy” which, supposedly, is contingent on the success of the current works.

From the beginning, the project has been criticised as a waste of taxpayer’s money - ‘the ocean giveth, the ocean taketh away’ being the general sentiment, especially for those who witnessed the island’s swift westward retreat over the last five years.

No doubt the government and contractors did all they could to plan the engineering side of the project, however there was always the unknown element of weather. They chose spring, historically a benign season on the Sunshine Coast, yet they hit the jackpot when the Southern Stratospheric Warming event occurred in September.

The SSW effectively shut down the easterly swell engine through September and October with the coast laying dormant for weeks at a time. Phil Jarratt, a mostly reliable surf reporter, said it was the worst spring he's had in 35 years on the coast.

The downstream effects of the SSW saw the westerly storm track remain north and closer to the Australian mainland. In turn, the subtropical high that generates easterly tradewind - and easterly tradeswell of course - also remained further north, putting it out of south-east Queensland’s swell window.

Wind anomaly chart for October shows pronounced westerlies for the southern Tasman and benign trades in the Coral Sea. The result? Great fishing weather on the Sunshine Coast.

That corner of the state, plus the northern end of NSW, has been in the swell doldrums - which makes it an ideal time for a coastal engineering project.

Daily footage of the emergency works show an impressive pile of sand dredged from the northern end of the channel, then pumped and bulldozed towards the new breakthroughs. Controlling the tidal flow will be a challenge, however it’s not one compounded by large swells and ongoing erosion.

November 11th and a pile of dredged sand is prepared for a final push to plug the opening (Bluey's Photography)

The influence of the Stratospheric Warming Event is now on the decline and we’re starting to see infeeds of moisture from the north-west of the country - a sign of looming tropical instability. That said, there’s been no shift in the subtropical high as of yet.

This provides workers with more time to sand over the openings, though it’ll only be a matter of time before the grace period is over and tropical systems again start impacting the region, possibly enhanced by a weak La Niña throughout the Pacific Ocean.

If the contractors weren’t paying attention to the SSW before then they should now. The good weather and small surf isn’t going to last.

The long-term hope of surfers - a return to Caloundra Bar - depends on the short-term success of the emergency works.

// STU NETTLE & CRAIG BROKENSHA