Next Federal Election

velocityjohnno started the topic in Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 02:15 pm

Might as well put this up in the politics subforum, to spare the front page. It's 18 months away or so, but here we go.

This is how Dutton wins:

https://www.afr.com/politics/enter-the-liberal-party-working-class-hero…

Hiccups Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:15 pm

indo-dreaming wrote:

"nobody is thinking oh some Buddhist just blew themselves up with their last words heard being "Buddha is great""

@Indo, Buddhist self immolation, google it.

"Im fucking sick to death of your hate of Israel/Jews, and this genocide bullshit, "

I'm a bit sick of your lack of understanding of what genocide is, and equating criticism of Israel's actions in Gaza, it's illegal occupation and it's flouting of the laws and tribunals set up by humanity after the Nazi genocide of European Jews during WW2 as Israel/Jew "hate" or "bullshit", without reasoning as to why you contend that.

To equate the actions of Israel and the IDF in Gaza since October 7 as not falling within the accepted meaning of genocide is completely wrong and frankly ignorant, of the law and history. It doesn't matter who, what State (or religion), acts in such a manner, genocide is genocide, war crimes are war crimes.

I think you are the one coming to this issue with an inherent bias.

If you like we can debate why it is or isn't "genocide". Do some reading on the definition, and history of the law on this matter and get back to me with some sound reasoning as to why the actions of Israel and the IDF, let's just call them "team blue" for the sake of it, don't come within the meaning of genocide as defined by law and we can take it from there. A proper, reasoned debate, without abuse on my part, or yours, on the facts and the law.

I would also suggest you familiarise yourself on the Laws of Armed Conflict and the meaning of terms like "necessity" and "proportionality", and "forced displacement" and "occupying power".

Or just keep bleating and obfuscating and saying things like "this genocide bullshit".

Up to you.

Further, "Ha ha and some other muppet is going back thousand's of years, that's even worse clutching of straws'

Isn't that exactly what you do when you justify Israel's right to ignore the law and the rights of Palestinians to self determination and Statehood?

At least try to be consistent.

Interesting thought on the Buddhist "self immolation" that famous photo, although it's just an act of suicide no aim to take out others...still

This isnt the right thread (the back Israel one is better), but honestly out of everyone id prefer to debate you, while you have trouble keeping your cool and get abusive you actually think about things and are clearly a smart guy, guys like Andy or Jelly, Hicups just dont have the knowledge or bothered to educate themselves and just post videos ect,

Maybe at some stage we could do a civil debate on so called occupation of the West Bank at some stage, because im completely baffled on how it can be seen as occupation when Israel was formed under the International law of Uti possidetis juris both areas of the West Bank and Gaza never had recognised borders and were Israel before being occupied by Jordan and Egypt then win back in 1967, I would be interested in how you frame it, especially with your legal knowledge. (but yeah not here)

BTW. On the genocide thing ive read and listened to both arguments and fuck if you going to stretch things the way i have seen been done you could do the same with almost any war,.

Many legal experts agree with you, and many also totally disagree with you, and even Alice Wairimu Nderitu, who was until recently United Nations special adviser on the prevention of genocide disagrees with you, she lost her job for not towing the line and saying it just doesn't fit the definition of genocide.

Anyway this thread is getting derailed.

Oh, i have plenty of knowledge on the subject, and I'm not gonna argue with your rusted on opinion, especially when you don't even know the difference between antisemitism and Zionism. Have you ever looked into that yourself? It's not hard to find and for most, not hard to understand. i'm jus gonna keep reminding you that you're an inhuman discrace.

andy-mac Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:23 pm

sypkan wrote:

definitions and interpretations...

anyone who lived through the pictures of the 1980's famine... knows there's no 'famine' in gaza...

https://www.thefp.com/p/the-gaza-famine-myth

Yeah sure the kids are putting on weight. Pft

indo-dreaming Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:25 pm

@ Hicups

Hahhhaaaa funny

Honestly im not wasting my time with you or Jelly, you both clearly dont even know the very basic aspects of the history.

If you dont want to spend the time educating yourself on both sides of the history & conflict, i suggest at least going to a place like Quora and seeing/reading the arguments by people with much more knowledge on basic questions/aspects that you think you know about but clearly dont

And hey you keep on thinking you are somehow on the right side of history (fingers down my throat) Sicko

BTW. Dont bother replying, ive got no interest in interacting with you or Jelly

tearymasseuse Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:28 pm

;)

U fuckn coward.

You’ve …..

Never been to the USA
Never been to Israel
Never been to ME

Enough said haha

Keep firing away from the couch you farkn inbred know it all.

At least u travelled to quora hahahaha

andy-mac Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:29 pm

tearymasseuse wrote:

;)

U fuckn coward.

You’ve …..

Never been to the USA

Never been to Israel

Never been to ME

Enough said haha

Keep firing away from the couch you farkn inbred know it all.

Never read a book, probably failed year 7 and tells us we need education.
FFS mate...
PHD of YouTube... well done.

Hiccups Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:29 pm

indo-dreaming wrote:

@ Hicups

Hahhhaaaa funny

Honestly im not wasting my time with you or Jelly, you both clearly dont even know the very basic aspects of the history.

If you dont want to spend the time educating yourself on both sides of the history & conflict, i suggest at least going to a place like Quora and seeing/reading the arguments by people with much more knowledge on basic questions/aspects that you think you know about but clearly dont

And hey you keep on thinking you are somehow on the right side of history (fingers down my throat) Sicko

BTW. Dont bother replying, ive got no interest in interacting with you or Jelly

I told you I am educated, you terminal deadshit genocide lover.

sypkan Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:32 pm

I wonder why jacinta jumped?

that leadership position might not be as far away as some were suggesting...

wouldn't labor fucking hate that?

or a big gay tim and jp top of the ticket?

ip obsession trumped!

sypkan Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:34 pm

I'm sure the kids aren't getting fat

talk to hamas...

they truly are collectively chubby

sypkan Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:38 pm

funny watching the relishing in the dethroning of dutton

but I'd bet there's actually more collective joy is seeing the downfall of adam...

https://x.com/lesstenny/status/1920352891786731943

big bob's not happy, nasty assessment of albo and the wong

thermalben Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 04:58 pm

sypkan wrote:

I wonder why jacinta jumped?

that leadership position might not be as far away as some were suggesting...

wouldn't labor fucking hate that?

or a big gay tim and jp top of the ticket?

ip obsession trumped!

Wow, that could very well be the reason.

Serious question: do you reckon they'd ever have a chance at winning an election?

GuySmiley Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 05:31 pm

sypkan wrote:

I wonder why jacinta jumped?

that leadership position might not be as far away as some were suggesting...

wouldn't labor fucking hate that?

or a big gay tim and jp top of the ticket?

ip obsession trumped!

Why? Coz the drifter has been tapped to continue the punch downing culture wars by the people (IPA, Rinehart and Murdoch) that own her arse, simples, the reactionaries of Australian politics aren’t going to give up their political party until they have sucked all life out of it.

Leadership position? FFS senators cannot be PM or deputy PM and the last time I checked Price got just over 3000 votes probably less than 10% of the votes required to get voted in as a member of the house of representatives. Ask yourself whether the nasty piece of unrepresentative swill will ever be that stupid
to risk her gravy train senator’s salary?

Labor would absolutely love Price opening her angry / bitter mouth, reckon they would bait her on a regular basis into spilling her race based hatred guts, reckon Labor could directly plot her comments with bumps in their popularity.

gs-co Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 05:11 pm

basesix reckons she’s hot

basesix Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 05:16 pm

I don't see temperature.

indo-dreaming Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 05:59 pm

sypkan wrote:

I wonder why jacinta jumped?

that leadership position might not be as far away as some were suggesting...

wouldn't labor fucking hate that?

or a big gay tim and jp top of the ticket?

ip obsession trumped!

Im not sure exactly how it all works, would be interesting to hear from someone that knows the system better.

But yeah that's what i thought the start of long term preparation, wouldn't the next step be to put her in a safe LNP senate seat somewhere next election?

Then you would think get her ready for not next election but the one after, unless something drastically changes that would be the widow for a realistic change of government.

I think people like Guy or Supa etc are just kidding themselves if they think she wouldn't be a real threat and very popular with not only LNP voters but just swing voters and women.

As i showed the other week with a poll from after the voice era she is very popular i think it was only Wong and Lambie that came in higher.

She is also a very good public speaker her age profile by then would also be pretty good 49, good for younger voters old enough for older voters

First women PM voted in by the people first Aboriginal PM, LNP would love to claim these things.

Edit: the only problem i see with this, is Sussan Ley is expected to be LNP leader (she is way ahead on betting odds too), but they aren't going to run two women leaders after each other especially if Sussan doesn't go that well.

stunet Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 05:58 pm

Fair points, though I'd question her political radar after saying "make Australia great again" long after it was obvious that Don was on the nose with the Aussie electorate.

thermalben Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 06:18 pm

I question her political temperament. She reminds me of Tony Abbott - effective in opposition when the goal is to attack and displace, but ineffective once any kind of leadership is required.

sypkan Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 06:23 pm

thermalben wrote:

I wonder why jacinta jumped?

that leadership position might not be as far away as some were suggesting...

wouldn't labor fucking hate that?

or a big gay tim and jp top of the ticket?

ip obsession trumped!

Wow, that could very well be the reason.

Serious question: do you reckon they'd ever have a chance at winning an election?

complications aside...

(which can be overcome)

I think she's the ONLY chance of winning the next election...

people love her, people of all colours, shapes and stripes...

yeh there's 'the mob', but even half of them would come around with the chance of her as PM I reckon, and, 'the mob' are only a minor percentage of the population anyway

I think she'd be great too, yeh there's issues... not least being lnp etc... but let's be honest, both sides have abysmally failed in everything indigenous affairs anyway... a fresh start, a new approach, is exactly what is required...

bring it on!

indo-dreaming Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 06:26 pm

stunet wrote:

Fair points, though I'd question her political radar after saying "make Australia great again" long after it was obvious that Don was on the nose with the Aussie electorate.

Yeah if i was her advisor id definitely tell her to tone it down with the culture war type stuff snd just be more conscious on stuff like that, you would think LNP have learnt from this election but who knows, sometimes political parties seem blinded to the obvious.

And i still see conservatives online saying LNP lost because they need to move further to the right when it's obvious they need to move a little to the centre.

Even the Aboriginal stuff she needs to tone it down a bit on and expand things to the issues of domestic violence for women in general.

sypkan Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 06:32 pm

from a much more cohesive time in oz politics...

these people can work together much more than some people would have you believe

or could...

sypkan Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 06:38 pm

josephine cashman is an interesting one

or became most interesting... especially throughout the voice..

it seems albo was calling her a cooker...

without having the balls to actually call her a cooker

she's a lawyer amongst other things, and has gone on a pretty strange tangent to be perfectly honest, but being a lawyer... you'd think she's knows a thing or two...

indo-dreaming Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 07:23 pm

sypkan wrote:

josephine cashman is an interesting one

or became most interesting... especially throughout the voice..

it seems albo was calling her a cooker...

without having the balls to actually call her a cooker

she's a lawyer amongst other things, and has gone on a pretty strange tangent to be perfectly honest, but being a lawyer... you'd think she's knows a thing or two...

I use to follow her on social media, i rarely stop following people but during Covid she went full cooker mode and a lot of post so I stopped following her.

GuySmiley Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 07:36 pm

thermalben wrote:

I question her political temperament. She reminds me of Tony Abbott - effective in opposition when the goal is to attack and displace, but ineffective once any kind of leadership is required.

Let’s call a spade shall we? Agree with you and @stu but she is meant to be the shadow minister for indigenous affairs and where in Australia is she welcomed by Aboriginal communities? She isn’t, because of the way she is so out of step with community sentiment; water and oil stuff. So she has been a totally failure with her portfolio. Just like her track record prior to entering federal politics. She will be an abject failure in her leadership (haha) ambition and will ultimately leave politics in disgrace.

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 07:48 pm

Are comments being censored again? My comment got deleted. How come SN??
I know it was there cos i saw it posted. But then disappeared. Would have thought my comment compared to some of the rubbish posted today by some was moderate to say the least.

adam12 Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 07:58 pm

I think Jacinta has made a grave error in making this "announcement" before all the deck chairs are put back into place in the LNP. The thing about political parties and in particular the LNP that we mostly don't get to see is that these are all extremely ambitious people and often the enmity and distrust and animosity is even greater amongst themselves than that for the opposing side.
Her "move" to the Libs will not go down well with many of her "colleagues" I believe, particularly when the election result is less than a week old, and in particular with the LNP women. Both the Liberal and the Nationals.
If she was going to do this it would have been more appropriate to defect to the Libs "by invitation" and not just announce that the Liberal Party is her "natural home". I doubt the Liberals, what's left of them, see her as being at "home" there. A Senator from the NT with a very small primary vote who regurgitates Trump (and Rinehart) is not going to be seen as much use to a party that is fast coming to the realisation that their only hope of winning back the inner and outer city votes is to move to the center. Fast.
But good on her and them, they are totally fucked at the moment, and they deserve to be, worst campaign by the LNP I've ever seen.
(I sense the black hand, and lack of reality and political judgement of Gina Rinehart in this premature announcement).

andy-mac Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 07:53 pm

southernraw wrote:

Are comments being censored again? My comment got deleted. How come SN??

I know it was there cos i saw it posted. But then disappeared. Would have thought my comment compared to some of the rubbish posted today by some was moderate to say the least.

Yeah I saw it.
Thought I was tripping. Haha.

andy-mac Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 07:55 pm

adam12 wrote:

I think Jacinta has made a grave error in making this "announcement" before all the deck chairs are put back into place in the LNP. The thing about political parties and in particular the LNP that we mostly don't get to see is that these are all extremely ambitious people and often the enmity and distrust and animosity is even greater amongst themselves than that for the opposing side.

Her "move" to the LNP will not go down well with many of her "colleagues" I believe, particularly when the election result is less than a week old, and in particular with the LNP women. Both the Liberal and the Nationals.

If she was going to do this it would have been more appropriate to defect to the LNP "by invitation" and not just announce that the LNP is her "natural home". I doubt the Liberals, what's left of them, see her as being at "home" there. A Senator from the NT with a very small primary vote who regurgitates Trump (and Rinehart) is not going to be seen as much use to a party that is fast coming to the realisation that their only hope of winning back the inner and outer city votes is to move to the center. Fast.

But good on her and them, they are totally fucked at the moment, and they deserve to be, worst campaign by the LNP I've ever seen.

(I sense the black hand, and lack of reality and political judgement of Gina Rinehart in this premature announcement).

Yep Gina for PM.

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 07:57 pm

Cheers @andymac.
At least i know i'm not going nuts.
Maybe SN are just looking out for my best interests. I'll cop that.

thermalben Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:07 pm

No-one has deleted or censored anything SR. Where was the comment, in this thread?

seeds Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:10 pm

Re post it
edit not you Ben
You Southern

stunet Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:10 pm

I deleted it. Thought it may have been obvious why I did.

seeds Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:14 pm

You must have gone rogue SR.

stunet Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:14 pm

Maybe you think priests have a certain predilection towards minors but this isn't the front bar at the Royal. What is tolerated there won't be here.

basesix Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:23 pm

wait.. the royal? or the royal exchange?

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:25 pm

It was literally on msm news @stu, that they were having trouble finding a candidate that didn't have a kiddy fiddling history.
But no worries. I must be an outlier.

stunet Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:25 pm

Both, and the Royal Oak too.

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:26 pm

Feel free to ban me.

sypkan Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:37 pm

"(I sense the black hand, and lack of reality and political judgement of Gina Rinehart in this premature announcement)."

didn't think of that bit, and yeh, you're probably right there

just to be clear, I think it's unlikely to happen this cycle, but I honestly think it's the only chance they have of winning this cycle...

something radical to shake shit up, really shake shit up, because they are in a mess

and indo is right, it's mind blowing all the social media people saying they need to go hard right to win back voters

just WEIRD

but, at the same time, what the hell does right and left even mean anymore?

the more sober commentators I guess are right in saying they need to focus back to more traditional conservative values - which is what jp has said

and, others saying it's all about conservative monetary policy

but these weirdos saying they need to go hard right... it's hard to even know wtf they are talking about...

politics is so all over the shop, it's hard to understand anything anymore

seeds Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:29 pm

Far out
It’s gone from Price defection to the upcoming grey smoke.

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:37 pm

I have no influence on what the catholic church does. But they certainly do it. Don't shoot the messenger.

seeds Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:45 pm

Bugger them SR. Horrid organisation.

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:47 pm

Agreed @seeds.
Interesting that indo's posts on muslims remain uncensored.....

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:49 pm

When one is worse than the other....who decides? God?? hahaha. @stu

seeds Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:57 pm

Funny how a bunch of weird old men are choosing the new poop instead of God.
It’s almost like God doesn’t exist.

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 08:58 pm

Fwiw, i have the utmost respect for Stu. Ultimately as a surfer, as an academic, as a spiritual being, as a family man and as a businessman. Huge respect, that for someone that i've never met, i have no apologies for my respect.
I don't think this is Stu though. No doubt my previous pope rant upset the applecart....we know who...and probably there's a need to step in and nip it in the bud.
I completely get it.
What i don't get, is the @Indodreaming vitriol against Muslims going completely unchecked.
It's no hard feelings. Just think this should be held in check too, and if it's not, i guess it's a free for all right??

basesix Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 09:02 pm
southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 09:04 pm

God bless you all, whatever god you believe in. I have no problem with a man/womans beliefs. I have a strong problem with institutions taking advantage of those beliefs. Be careful who you align yourself with. Stay individual, and stay free you bunch of legends. Night.

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 09:07 pm

And since our country (federal election etc) is still governed within the sphere of religious doctine and law.....(not dreamtime unfortunately)..a little song.

seeds Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 09:10 pm

It’s a deal Tom.

southernraw Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 09:13 pm

haha bless ya @seeds, in the least religous way possible.

velocityjohnno Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 09:14 pm

Some election analysis here, check out the highest-primary-vote maps of our major urban areas:

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/05/winning-the-suburbs-is-the-key…

It seems the more wealthy and inner an area, the more likely to vote green. Check out how the surrounding suburbs become ALP and Libs battleground. So, if we give the entire country a UBI of $200K a year, we can have a Green federal government...