Aleppo.....Syrian conflict restarting.
Yes, I saw this also this morning, another front for Putin to worry about now for those that trade in human misery, of course some may argue that in some ways it was the Syrian uprising where Putin realised what the West would allow him to get away with that led to the Crimean invasion/annexation and now war with Ukraine.
GuySmiley wrote:
Yes, I saw this also this morning, another front for Putin to worry about now for those that trade in human misery, of course some may argue that in some ways it was the Syrian uprising where Putin realised what the West would allow him to get away with that led to the Crimean invasion/annexation and now war with Ukraine.
Civilian unrest against the proRuski Georgian government too.For POOtin, the shits hitting a few fans.
Russian interest in Syria is their Mediterranean naval base in the port of Tartar. If Assad regime forces keep collapsing that could be threatened. This is a big problem for Putin, as access to that port allows them to avoid the Bosporus choke point, controlled by Turkey. The Syrian airbases are also a transit hub for them projecting their forces into Africa etc.
Russian support was vital for Assad’s survival earlier in the civil war. Not sure if they have the capacity to pitch in now.
Sorry, Tartus…
Syrian rebel forces supported, largely, by Turkey. But a hodgepodge of Star Wars bar groups - including some ISIS aligned.
etarip wrote:
a hodgepodge of Star Wars bar groups - including some ISIS aligned.
I can imagine what that looks like
I dont know much about this civil war but its crazy how both Russia an Hezbollah/Iran are involved
From the other month
"In the aftermath of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's death, massive celebrations erupted in Idlib, Syria, with people rejoicing and honking cars in the streets. Videos circulating on social media show residents celebrating, as Nasrallah's death brings hope to many Syrians displaced by the ongoing civil war."
Holy hell if that is true that changes things. Russian air base and sea base allow access to Med and also transit to all of Africa, where they've been happily rolling French colonies with Wagner group. France may be enjoying this.
I've had a quick look post-surf here
https://www.twz.com/news-features/rebel-forces-enter-syrias-second-larg…
And you just go to the comments, select 'newest' and the crowdsourced latest news and rumours keeps up with the event - links to X which I don't have, so it's good to read those from the OSINT crew as linked.
It seems there's some sort of operation in Damascus against Assad, maybe a coup, there's this:
"U.S Coalition Forces engaged Iranian Sites near the Euphrates with Artillery, as the Syrian Defense Force (SDF) has begun an Operation against the Assad Regime in Deir ez-Zor Governorate. The SDF is already claiming to have Captured the Town of Khasham."
Which seems an escalation in a different area.
And plenty of people are wondering which intel agencies are behind which players. Star Wars bar fight indeed. I've seen this movie before and would advise against using jihadis as proxies, as they are a bit excitable and planes tend to get flown into buildings 20-30 years later in your home country after helping them.
Plenty of groups with an axe to grind with Assad, Iranian-sponsored paramilitaries and the Russians in Syria. Going to get uglier. Again.
The fighting there has been brutal, with documented use of chemical weapons, pioneering use of the ‘double-tap’ strikes to kill first responders, barrel-bomb strikes on civilian population centres etc. Many of the things that the world is (rightly) protesting that Israel is doing in Gaza have been happening non-stop in Syria for a decade.
The first group are now at Hama, which is about 25 or so miles inland from the Russian naval base.I hope they can capture that with all the warships(usually has up to 15)
quadzilla wrote:
The first group are now at Hama, which is about 25 or so miles inland from the Russian naval base.I hope they can capture that with all the warships(usually has up to 15)
Aren't these rebels Isis, Al queda and other Islamist groups? Western supported no doubt.
What a shit show.
Russia if facing real threat of losing navel base might strike out, ya reckon they'll just take the defeat?
Geez de-escalation is going well with all these wars.
It’s a Star Wars bar @a-m.
Way too complex to ascribe it to a case of Western meddling.
Gulf states (Saudi…) provide much of the financing for the Isis aligned groups, Iran, Turkey have competing interests and proxies. Israel has a hand in undermining Hezbollah (in particular) wherever they can. The Kurds have their own aspirations.
A world of temporary arrangements, strange bedfellows and cooperation / competition. Age old enmities and modern friendships of convenience.
andy-mac wrote:
The first group are now at Hama, which is about 25 or so miles inland from the Russian naval base.I hope they can capture that with all the warships(usually has up to 15)Aren't these rebels Isis, Al queda and other Islamist groups? Western supported no doubt.
What a shit show.
Russia if facing real threat of losing navel base might strike out, ya reckon they'll just take the defeat?
Geez de-escalation is going well with all these wars.
The group who took Aleppo are islamic but disassociated with ALQueda a few years ago.Turkey support them.....Whats happening in Damascus has been suggested as a brother of Assad but its not absolutely clear right now...The Kurds are backed by the Yanks and their region is in 4 countries.Thats complex!
One thing is certain,Moscow cant fully support much of a reaction apart from airstrikes.
Assad and his family have reportedly fled to Moscow with his extended family.
etarip wrote:
It’s a Star Wars bar @a-m.
Way too complex to ascribe it to a case of Western meddling.
Gulf states (Saudi…) provide much of the financing for the Isis aligned groups, Iran, Turkey have competing interests and proxies. Israel has a hand in undermining Hezbollah (in particular) wherever they can. The Kurds have their own aspirations.
A world of temporary arrangements, strange bedfellows and cooperation / competition. Age old enmities and modern friendships of convenience.
Cheers etarip.
Yeah very complex, was being a bit glib there re western backed.
Sure arms suppliers are loving their stock values though.
Guess things will get worse before they get better.... :/
I was reading about the history of the conflict and those involved and watched the vids here and others, and it's an insane complex and at times bizzare mix the number of different parties involved is crazy.
The only glue in some way on each side seems to be along Shia & Sunni lines. (And also Syria government is Shia but over 70% of people in Syria are Sunni)
I follow Israel news daily and at times over the last year ive heard strikes in Syria mentioned, but never took a lot of notice or interest especially on the numbers but there has been over 80 strikes by Israel on targets in Syria just since late September mostly on missiles etc being transported to Lebanon but also on things like weapons depots mostly Hezbollah but also anything Iran backed.
Syria plays an important role for Iran /Hezbollah because it's the only way Iran can re supply Hezbollah with rockets.
Im sure Israel would love a government change ideally for a Sunni government not aligned with Iran would really help Israel in controlling the threat of Hezbollah from Iran..
BTW. They also say the heating up in Syria actually helps ensure the ceasefire deal in Lebanon holds as many Hezbollah fighters are said to move back into Syria, but the ceasefire is only on Lebanon so Israel can still take Hezbollah targets out in Syria without breaking the ceasefire.
Seems like the Turks are playing a pretty decisive role in this iteration. Their proxy, the Syrian National Army are heavily committed in the north.
Their skin in the game: never liked Assad, feel like they got shafted after supporting Russian / Iranian intervention in 2016, they want to suppress Kurdish aspirations for autonomy in Syria, have an opportunity to reassert a level of influence in the region from the Black Sea to the Gulf and the Mediterranean that they haven’t had since 1918.
Great summary:
https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1863335225238954128
ASSADs palace has new owners.
The more thats revealed, the more you feel for the innocents
Another video from him going through each group involved, i think i counted 19 seperate groups.
This guys videos are really good from an overall military update position and includes some interesting footage and list knowledgeable people/sources to follow on X
It seems ya dont need a navy to chase the Russian Navy out of their foreign bases.
The Ukes did it slowly at Sevastopol but the rebels have forced the evacuation of the Syrian base that Ruskis were using.IN JUST A MATTER OF DAYS!
Overnight developments have the northern rebels in heavy fighting in Homs(3rd largest city)
Damascus is invaded by southern rebels who have no affiliation with the north, reports say 10ks from city centre .
Assad said to be still in Damascus and IF he really is, then his life will be under threat if either group capture him.He was in Moscow a few days ago, some reports say.So, heresay/Truth could be different???
There you have it, these rebels took the country in a few days. Where is the almighty Putin, Assad’s big friend? He wants to run the world but can’t even intervene in Syria due to commitments in Ukraine. What a loser.
flollo wrote:
There you have it, these rebels took the country in a few days. Where is the almighty Putin, Assad’s big friend? He wants to run the world but can’t even intervene in Syria due to commitments in Ukraine. What a loser.
Even though POOtin thinks hes a tough guy, his army isnt.At first it was proven to be the 2nd best army in Ukraine,then last August, the 2nd best in Russia.The last ten days shows its 2nd best in Syria.The only thing he has is Masses of people and stockpiles of old weapons ,along with Nuclear and now hyper fantasy mid range missiles.Nato has all that stuff too but dont flaunt it.His currency is a shambles, interest borrowing rates have hit 28% mostly because of whats happened in the last 3 years.TWumpy inherits a shamozzle,so its interesting to see how he sorts it out.I dont believe its going to take just one day.Don may have exaggerated a bit there.lol
While it's kind on nice to see Russia and Iran fail in protecting ASSAD, there really is no great outcome in Syria, most of those rebel groups are just as bad if not worse than the current government.
And looking at things from Israel's perspective any new government could be an even worst neighbour.
While the enemy of your enemy, isn't always your friend, i do hope whoever gain's power remains an enemy of Iran & hezbollah so Syria cant be used as a land corridor to restock Hezbollah, which not only favours Israel but also favours the Lebanon government and it's people, especially Christians and even Sunni muslims.
BTW. Good to also see Trump in the last day or so say USA should not get involved and just let it play out.
indo-dreaming wrote:
While it's kind on nice to see Russia and Iran fail in protecting ASSAD, there really is no great outcome in Syria, most of those rebel groups are just as bad if not worse than the current government.
And looking at things from Israel's perspective any new government could be an even worst neighbour.
While the enemy of your enemy, isn't always your friend, i do hope whoever gain's power remains an enemy of Iran & hezbollah so Syria cant be used as a land corridor to restock Hezbollah, which not only favours Israel but also favours the Lebanon government and it's people, especially Christians and even Sunni muslims.
BTW. Good to also see Trump in the last day or so say USA should not get involved and just let it play out.
Do you honestly believe the US is not involved in this?
Like how media referring to the rebels as rebels. Not ISIS or Al queda..... effective rebranding.
I'd be a bit concerned if I was in Syria right now as a Christian.
Hope it has good outcome for Syrians, but reckon shit is just about to go to the next level....
Assad forces running!
Not a coincidence that this is all happening after the election of Trump ?
Georgia , Syria ,South Korea.
andy-mac wrote:
While it's kind on nice to see Russia and Iran fail in protecting ASSAD, there really is no great outcome in Syria, most of those rebel groups are just as bad if not worse than the current government.And looking at things from Israel's perspective any new government could be an even worst neighbour.
While the enemy of your enemy, isn't always your friend, i do hope whoever gain's power remains an enemy of Iran & hezbollah so Syria cant be used as a land corridor to restock Hezbollah, which not only favours Israel but also favours the Lebanon government and it's people, especially Christians and even Sunni muslims.
BTW. Good to also see Trump in the last day or so say USA should not get involved and just let it play out.
Do you honestly believe the US is not involved in this?
Like how media referring to the rebels as rebels. Not ISIS or Al queda..... effective rebranding.
I'd be a bit concerned if I was in Syria right now as a Christian.
Hope it has good outcome for Syrians, but reckon shit is just about to go to the next level....
Ive been digesting a fair bit on it all and i havent heard anyone suggest USA is involved, i dont even know what side they would support if they did?
On both sides they have enemies Russia, Iran- Jihadist groups
The middle east is a basket case because of Islam, if islamist group's and governments aren't wanting to kill Jews or Christians, they then split into Sunni Vs Shia to kill each other for power, which this war basically is, about 19 different groups involved take out Russia and each group is a Shia or Sunni group on either side.
But i agree on your other points, the rebels label is misleading, it sounds too positive, but i think its used because even if its mostly HTS, there is many other groups involved and yes HTS do have links to Al Qaeda even if they or others claim they are somehow reformed and not the same, many are the same leaders same fighters they dont just change their ideologies either.
The ISIS element/involvement from my understanding listening to middle east/terrorism groups experts is currently not really a factor but they say may become one.
Either way there is Sunni jihadist elements involved, they aren't some great groups fighting for democracy and equal right's, wanting to overthrow the government to put in some liberal progressive government and yeah Syrian Christians would be pretty concerned with what comes next.
Anyway i think we are agreeing more than disagreeing on this one.
Exxotixjeff wrote:
Assad forces running!
Not a coincidence that this is all happening after the election of Trump ?
Georgia , Syria ,South Korea.
Yeah nah, the war in Syria escalating is about these group's taking the opportunity of Russia being occupied with Ukraine and Iran & Hezbollah occupied with Israel.
Both those wars starting had/have nothing to do with Trump, quite the opposite, we will never know for sure but many say they would never have happened under Trump, and they didn't happen under Trump
If you are going to blame these three wars Ukraine, Israel, Syria on any US political leader, it would have to be Biden not Trump.
Biden’s speech is getting worse , slurring his words and blowing his own trumpet before departing office . Sad little man .
Apparently according to experts,
Trumps senile brain is worse now than Bidens was 4 years ago,
so we’ll have to see who is the saddest.
Would they be the “ experts “ at MTN ? Come on toxic jef you can do better than that .
Ah the mosquito is back
Buzzing every comment.
You must still really like Donald ,
despite his inability to choose a cabinet,
that hasn’t got drunks or sexual allegations, or zero experience in anything, or special meetings with Assad and Putin.
But they won’t tell you that on your 20 second “news” bit channels.
bits
Apparently you can’t do better than that , oh well , enjoy your exciting day ahead .
language hey...
I see the media - the mainstream media? - are using this term 'rebels'...
whilst others are using this term 'jihasists'...
I think we've been here before...
not saying the fall of assad is not a 'not bad' thing...
but, maybe... not neccessarily... a good thing either...
what a cess pit!
language part 11
sustainable development advocate and 'far right politician'...
interesting... contradiction of terms...
?
funny times...
"...Călin Georgescu (Romanian pronunciation: [kəˈlin dʒe̯orˈdʒesku]; born 26 March 1962) is a Romanian far-right politician, agronomist, and prominent conspiracy theorist,[1] who worked in the field of sustainable development. Georgescu was appointed the executive director of the United Nations (UN) Global Sustainable Index Institute in Geneva and Vaduz for the period 2015–2016. Prior to that, he served as President of the European Research Centre for the Club of Rome (2013–2015).[2]..."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%C4%83lin_Georgescu
https://x.com/myhiddenvalue/status/1865917441928565206
maybe he's a nazi...
the secrets of the soil?
mr. stiener?
anyway, far right... bad...
ukraine nazis... good...
jihadists... bad...
us jihadists... good...
indo-dreaming wrote:
Assad forces running!Not a coincidence that this is all happening after the election of Trump ?
Georgia , Syria ,South Korea.
Yeah nah, the war in Syria escalating is about these group's taking the opportunity of Russia being occupied with Ukraine and Iran & Hezbollah occupied with Israel.
Both those wars starting had/have nothing to do with Trump, quite the opposite, we will never know for sure but many say they would never have happened under Trump, and they didn't happen under Trump
If you are going to blame these three wars Ukraine, Israel, Syria on any US political leader, it would have to be Biden not Trump.
In regard to US involvement.
andy-mac wrote:
Assad forces running!Not a coincidence that this is all happening after the election of Trump ?
Georgia , Syria ,South Korea.
Yeah nah, the war in Syria escalating is about these group's taking the opportunity of Russia being occupied with Ukraine and Iran & Hezbollah occupied with Israel.
Both those wars starting had/have nothing to do with Trump, quite the opposite, we will never know for sure but many say they would never have happened under Trump, and they didn't happen under Trump
If you are going to blame these three wars Ukraine, Israel, Syria on any US political leader, it would have to be Biden not Trump.
In regard to US involvement.
I think the point was that these wars started because of Trumps election,
not by Trump,
Because now Trump will increase Putins power, when he takes office,
so the rebels are hitting now before that happens.
I’ll have to view your video , to get another opinion though.
This was a centre of news a while ago and the first 8 minutes of this report shows some rebellion.