Welcome Tropical Cyclone Ian

Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Tropical Cyclone Ian is currently a category 1 system sitting just west of Fiji.

It initailly developed on January 2nd near Tonga and has meandered about the Lau Basin ever since.

Over the coming days it's expected to intensify while drifting south-east towards and possibly over Tonga.

TC Ian is only expected to reach category 2 status over the coming days and won't generate any swell for the Australian East Coast as it remains too small in scope and is a very large distance from the mainland.

Tonga on the other hand is expected to see large swell from the north and potentially a follow up swell from the south as the system drifts south in close proximity to the Polynesian island. The southern coasts of Fiji will also see medium to large levels of SE swell through this weekend.

Current long-range forecasts have Ian weakening once is drifts south of Tongan latitudes and then swept swiftly away to the east by a frontal system crossing New Zealand.

There's some indication we may see another tropical depression intensifying in the Vanuatu region in the wake of TC Ian. The swell from these developments would make more of an impact across the Australian region, but we'll keep a close eye on this.

Follow the Tongan West Coast forecast here or click the image below for the WAMs.

Comments

mibs-oner Tuesday, 7 Jan 2014 at 05:28 pm new

Shame about the west wind for ha'atafu. Went there a few years back and there's some super fun waves in the area

thermalben Tuesday, 7 Jan 2014 at 05:59 pm new

Well, there are easterlies forecast for the morning.. albeit 25-30kts!

https://i.imgur.com/i9DsY5X.png

shoredump Wednesday, 8 Jan 2014 at 09:00 am new

Sounds like a very handsome cyclone

donweather Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 at 01:34 pm new

Ian likely to reach Cat 4 status shortly. Shame he whisks away to the S/SE with no cradling high to his south!!!! :'(

Craig Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 at 01:43 pm new

Wow, he is too!

And it's sticking to JWTC's forecasts from Tuesday.

No considerable swell for us, but the tropical developments in the wake of Ian are still positive.

SE Qld is certainly overdue!

donweather Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 at 01:56 pm new

Craig wrote:

SE Qld is certainly overdue!

Please tell Huey this!!!

donweather Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 09:27 am new

Cat 4 this morning.

thermalben Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 09:45 am new

Such a tiny system! After looking at the North Atlantic for the last few weeks - and the NW Pac before Xmas - it's a little underwhelming on OSCAT.

Still, this system may really create some major problems in Tonga. I hope they're prepared.

Samoa doesn't look like a great place to be right now either.. lashing winds and rain.

https://i.imgur.com/ZPXVXj5.png

donweather Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 12:45 pm new
stunet Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 12:49 pm new

That's great Don. Wish I paid attention to that map when the 'storm known as Hercules' was doing its business.

Craig Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 12:56 pm new

Here's Hercules: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/01/05/0000Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/ort…

You can step back to archive data.

Craig Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 12:57 pm new
donweather Saturday, 11 Jan 2014 at 05:16 pm new

Well well little old Ian got to Cat 5 last night apparently. Well done old chap.

Craig Saturday, 11 Jan 2014 at 05:32 pm new

Wow that is nuts,seeing as early forecasts only had Cat 2.

shoredump Saturday, 11 Jan 2014 at 10:23 pm new

Underrated.
.....damn handsome too!