Billabong Pro Tahiti Forecast
The World Tour scored excellent waves at the resurrected J-Bay Pro so high hopes surround the next event on tour, the Billabong Pro Tahiti. Chopes is arguably the most anticipated event on tour so the question begs: will there be swell?!
The answer is short and pleasant. Yes, there will be swell, and in fact there'll be plenty of it. Three large, distinct groundswell events will grace Tahiti-iti during the waiting period which begins this Friday (Saturday Australian time).
When surf forecasting for Teahupoo the main weather feature we focus our attention on is the position of the Long Wave Trough. This upper atmospheric wave rotates around the Southern Hemisphere and is the main steering mechanism for Southern Ocean storms and subsequently swell.
The LWT has various amplifications and troughs running like a roller coaster from west to east around the globe. Polar fronts are steered and strengthened up towards the equator by the amplifications and deflected back to the poles by the troughs.
The ideal setup for Teahupoo is to have a strong amplification of the LWT sitting just east of New Zealand, effectively steering and strengthening polar fronts up from the Antarctic Shelf past New Zealand's East Coast and up through Tahiti's prime swell window.
At the moment we're seeing a node of the LWT moving through the Tasman Sea (the source of the current southerly swell on the East Coast) and we should see the LWT continuing east while strengthening into the end of the week and weekend.
This is an ideal development for Teahupoo so we should see a flurry of strong polar frontal activity projected up through Tahiti's swell window.
An initial frontal system Thursday and Friday should produce a large south-west groundswell pulse for Monday up to 8ft to occasionally 10ft. A secondary slightly weaker system developing south of the Tasman Sea but not projecting as far north into the South Pacific Ocean should produce a secondary S/SW groundswell for later Wednesday and more so Thursday in the 6-8ft+ range. Winds look great for Monday's swell but less so for the secondary pulse Wednesday and Thursday as a fresh S/SE change sweeps through the islands.
Luckily we'll likely see a third pulse of large long-range S/SW groundswell the following weekend as winds slowly swing around to the east.
With all this in mind we may see Round 1 hit the water on the first day of the waiting period under a dying swell before organisers capitalise on Monday's groundswell and a period of good winds early Tuesday. From then it may be a small wait until the following weekend for winds to improve and a new swell to fill in.
Click through for the Teahupoo Forecast Graph and WAMs
Comments
I think they'll still run the warm up Rd1 on Friday (tahiti time) and then possibly commence Rd2 with a late start on Sunday (tahit time). I'm hoping they run it on Monday, but me thinks they might not given the current forecast size and swell period (and pros probably won't have the right equipment again!!!). Tuesday will test the pros for sure...after that, local winds, as Craig has said, do look awkward.
Fuel TV. IQ set, Alarm check, now.....we wait for the swell.
You're a day ahead of yaself. Big swell is coming Monday Tahiti time which is Tuesday our time.
They may still start the comp tomorrow as that swell starts to ramp up later tomorrow.
The forecast is ridiculous.
cheers for the long range outlook mick. hopefully the winds predicted for tue/wed/thursday don't come through. I'd hate to see organisers panic and send them out in the couple days of smaller waves before the next swell hits
Slater, Seabass and Glenn Hall up first and I hope the little leprechaun wins.
Against Slater at 8 foot Teahupoo? Don't like the little leprechaun from Umina's chances.
Latest update is in and it's pulled back the numbers a bit to 10-12ft and 10ft respectively next Monday/Tuesday with variable winds on the former and light offshores on the later.
Craig / Ben at last year event the models undercooked that low period swell...has there been any modifications?
Nah no modifications to the model from last year Mick.
How's Surfline's call for tomorrow: "double to triple overhead (10-15-18’ faces) and some larger max sets not out of the question".
So anywhere between 10ft and 20ft. That's a conveniently large margin of error!
haha yeah that would cover it!!
So it starts early tomorrow morning our time do you think ?
Yeah should do Blowin, around 4am our time if they start at 8am.
Cheers Craig, should be good.
At that size the wave creates it's own updraft....so as long as the synoptic wind isn't strong onshore it won't affect wave quality in any material way.
The Code Red day was light onshore for most of it.
Do we honestly think they'll be running the comp tomorrow? Won't it be close to the limit of paddle in on the sets?
Yes, for sure, it'll probably be 8-10ft so more than paddleable.
Jeppers its going to be great viewing, triple overhead with 3 man heats.
Even Kelly is anxious.
https://instagram.com/p/rySww1zbNm/?modal=true
He would have to be the favourite with a forecast like that
keep an eye on Ricardo Dos Santos.
Its currently 10.20 pm sunday in Tahiti.......youd have to be shitting yourself right now wondering what the fuck day break will bring .
ASP reporting they've flown in a few safety buoyancy vests for surfers who want to use them. Reckon I'd be more inclined to wear a helmet than a vest at big Chopes.
Vests and hemets flown in I would hope after the Bourez reef hit .
Is Ricardo in the draw now Steve? Not available on fantasy surfer?
Wonder if Jon Jon is gunna finally go mad in a comp and dominate like he should be?
And to add further confusion to the recent ASP press releases stating how big the upcoming swell will be in 'face feet' ("with the latest forecasts showing 10-to-15-foot faces"), this morning's ASP email blast out is calling the surf "6 - 8 feet (1.8 - 2.4 metres)".
In any case, some of those bombs in the first few minutes look a good 8-10ft to me.
Ah, sorry Grug, thought Dos Santos had made it through the trials.
Anyway, Tuamata Puhetini is amazing out there........he'll be worth watching as a wildcard. Has a unique tube-riding style.
Yikes. The webcast has just gone down, and the ASP's lost 40% of their audience in around three minutes.
Expensive and irritating problem.
Mick Fanning owning Teahupoo. Two 9+ rides. Chopes doesn't looks so heavy when it's this perfect.
Shit, Hedgey...that was heavy.
Good to hear the tube monsters are in Tahiti too.
Nice relaxed pace to the morning. Some amazing rides.
I'd say humble. Egos are cowardly things.
Tuamata won't forget that pasting in a while.
A good licking? Damn, missed it. Been too many successful rides for my liking.
heavy beatings. ace is so good out there. taumata looks so comfortable but got nailed.
I'd rather all of my ex-girlfriends in the commentary box discussing clothes, their problems and the dusting not being done than these commentators though. fucking terrible giardia of the mouth. how many times can you say the same thing in a slightly different and more retarded way? nothing to do with being aus or american either. just plain terrible.
Stoked for Dion, he's such a technically gifted surfer. Made a priority mistake but didn't get punished. Said it before but De Souza will never win a world title, big lefts = go home. Prime time viewing in US numbers must be up surely!!
CJ! Pulls back and goes over on the biggest wave of the morning so far.
Woah...
No more frightening sight in surfing than paddling over a wave at Chopes and seeing the whole ocean sucking dry on that reef as a set bears down. It's diabolical.
Is the swell still rising? Anyone want to take a guess..? Been awfully slow the last 30 mins and not many sets, CJ's wave notwithstanding.
No drones flying around ? CJs over falls from the air would be different vision.
Wouldn't that look good from above?! I thought there'd be a few drones for sure. No wind this morning, it would've looked dreamy.
Good heat this one: Jadson, Kerr, and J'Dub. Plenty o' waves.
Every time i sneak a look while I'm at work it's just the commentators talking. Wouldn't mind seeing some actual waves getting ridden!
Pack scrambling....big set! Comp scaffolding wiped away. Destruction! Yes!
Geezus that last west bowl set was fecking SCARY!!!
Can we get a closer look a t Durbos dial.........no lipreading skills needed
"FUCKIN HELL"
best thing in the improvements department is bumping boats and yachts from the channel proper, and allowing actual surfers sitting on boards hooting from the shoulder.
Yew!
Check the vid as the pack scrambles and the scaffolding gets wiped away.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152633834424929&set=vb.202936059928&type=2&theater
Hedgey!!! Has to be a 10. HAS TO BE.
Hedgey, balls out on that one.
10!
Simply amazing, missed the guillotine lip by inches, stupidly heavy and amazing.
he'll be in shock after that...won;t b able to sleep tonight for the adrenalin rushes
Unreal!
Nathan Hedge's ride was a 10 on sack alone.
Yew!
How did Owen get through with no complete rides yet Bede gets an ok barrel, comes out but can't get over the line?
Sure Owen's were heavy waves and he was in there for a while but still incomplete.
Kinda a bit like if you're doing a jump on a snowboard and going huge but not making it then someone doesn't go as big but nail it, who do you give the score to?
Even the commentators said it's the first time they've seen someone win a heat without making a wave.
What do you blokes reckon?
Apropos Owen getting through Round 2 without making a wave: He got scored a 4.67 this morning (Round 5) for an unsuccesful ride.
It's the first time I've ever seen anyone get through a heat without making a ride, but I don't think there's been any change in thinking on the judges part. Fact is, surfers have always been scored on the waves they don't make. If they didn't every fall would be scored a zero, but they aren't, they're scored up to the point the surfer falls and usually don't make the top two waves cos they're so low.
Owen got scored on the size of the waves he paddled into, the drops, and the lines he set, as he should have. It just happened those two lowly scores were higher than Bede's and Travis'. Bede's barrel was small and short and was correctly scored on the scale.
Also, you've gotta consider that judging doesn't always make sense. Remember the time Parko got a 10 at Keramas for a wave he fell off on?
And now they're back to face feet!
After the morning ASP press release which stated "excellent 6 - 8 feet waves (1.8 - 2.4 metres)", the afternoon press release changed metrics, saying that the event "got underway today in biggest surf of the season as the world's best battled 10-to-15 foot (3 - 5 metre) surf at Teahupo'o".
One of Tommy Carrolls Tens at Pipe he fell on at the end.
Wonder what happened to the Tahitian Matador .........damm, his name escapes me, Manoa Drollet.
He had mad skills out there as big as it gets.
I've got a framed picture of Manoa hanging over my toilet at my work.
No disrespect intended to him, just a mad-crazy barrel.
Hedgey well charged 10.
ASP- Nathan hedge the "eccentric" Australian ?........hardly Ozzie Wright.
Crazy barrels
No wildcard for J.O.B. has his suspension finished ?
Why would JOB get a wildcard? They have the Trials before the event, and allocate two wildcards - of which Hog and Tuamata Puhetini each scored a spot.
Some ASP events are allowed sponsor wildcards (ie Jacob Willcox at the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach) but JOB ain't sponsored by any of the brands associated with Tahiti.
Very underwhelming at Chopes this morning.
Yeah - it shows how high the bar has been set. Anything less than a death defying drop on a ten foot drainer, and it doesn't quite seem worthy.
Very poor now, don't know why they didn't push through yesterday with the poorer winds forecast from today and into the coming days.
A few strange size calls today.
The pre-competition press release called "8 to 10 foot plus (2.5 - 3 metres)", stating "The world's best will have to battle huge and dangerous waves again today at Teahupo'o for Round 2", but then quoted Kieren Perrow: "we've got some really good double-overhead sets coming in".
Now the post-competition press release has arrived and they've downgraded the size to "6-to-8 foot (1.8 - 2.4 metres)".
Surf looked 6-8ft to me (and Kieran's double-overhead confirms 6ft+). Seems the ASP were calling Face Feet in the morning (and undercalling it somewhat), but then reverted back to Surfer's Feet in the afternoon.
What's strange is that yesterday's press releases got it around the other way (calling 6-8ft in the morning, then 10-15ft in the afternoon).
had to laugh at the live webcast, I think it was rd. 2 the banner on screen showing the conditions had it at '10-13ft'. Definitely a Seppo in charge of that call!
Yeah the webcasts are full of that: 7ft, 9-11ft, all of these strange non-surf measurements.
The thing is, even though most Americans seem to measure Face Feet (although most US Pro surfers measure in Surfers Feet: even commentator Strider Wasilewski called the first day at Chopes 6-8ft), surely they still use arbitrary round figures like 8ft, 10ft, 12ft, 15ft etc?
Would anyone really say the surf was "9ft", "11ft" or "13ft"?
I don't get it.
Thursday and Monday (Tahiti time) look good to finish the event in.
I disagree, winds still look poor Thursday, fresh and gusty from the SE but improving during the day. I'd say Friday morning and Monday/Tuesday.
Anyone know if competitors can film for the go-pro challenge during their heats?
Don't think i've seen any stuck to boards...
Yeah, they can. $15,000 for best go-pro footage in a singlet, $10,000 for best in free surf.
Interesting that none of the pros have bothered with it, maybe too much distraction given the intensity levels of the surf at that size. Some of the bombs from yesterday would've looked great from the inside.
Really? Well if no-one's doing it surely the cunning pro would paddle out with a GoPro and grab some footage, any footage, and scoop the pool. $15,000 is equal to a quarter place finish.
Where are all the cunning pros?
I think it's either / or, not both. Single best footage gets the dollars but if you're in a singlet you get the extra $5,000.
Ahh, I see.
Yeah - i've noticed most guys go with the mouth-bit option now instead of fixing it to their board. It must look crazy shallow paddling down the face from that height - would love to see some footage... mind you, it'd still probably only look 4 ft in the pit.
From this morning's press release: "Yesterday's storm off the coast of Tahiti has helped build the swell".
Really?
And they're really talking up next week too. The release headline: "Teahupo'o Will Roar As Huge Swell Builds". And further, "event organizers for the Billabong Pro Tahiti are holding off for the massive waves just on the horizon", with "another booming swell making its way to the island".
Next week's swell - whilst certainly expected to be big - is likely to be somewhat different to the usual big Tahitian groundswells, and the underlying reason is quite interesting. I'll see if we can squeeze in an article about it in the next few days.
Close range fetch/storm? Mid range period? More typical of an east coast Aus swell than a Chopes long groundswell.
They must be sweating on a good swell now after all the talk up of endless big swells, starting to run out of time.At the beginning it looked as though they were in for a dream event and hopefully it will end that way, but will it?Fingers crossed,credibility is riding on this now .Started with a bang hope it dosent finish with a whimper.
speaking of "talking it up",
P. Speaker interviewed.
Wow.. great link Roller (although, let's keep non Tahiti discussion out of this thread.. I've copied the link over to the "The ASP: It's on but who's watching?" article).
Don't worry Simba, they're going to finish in good waves. I think they'd all be pretty comfortable at the moment with the forecast.. no-one'd be sweating. Monday (local) looks amazing. Even Sunday arvo should have some bombs.
How many more days do they need to finish the comp? 2 full days?
Ross Williams calling CJ's last wave against Bede:
"That wave was filled with tube monsters."
Because one tube monster isn't scary enough.
Our Teahupoo surf forecast model's nailed it so far today: 6ft dawn, 8ft lunchtime, 8-10ft this evening.
Just saw your post!!!!!
Medina is this years world champ for sure!
Don, I am guessing they will need all 3 days, considering re-starts and tide. Though they have tomorrow Monday and Tuesday so plenty of time.
Though the long range was for a 15 foot swell 10 days out its nice how the SN models picked this rise in swell today, going from 4 foot through to 10 foot. Light winds should be pumping tomorrow and after the comp is over.
JJ- you freak!
Amasing!!!
10 points....boom!
Last time JJ scored 10 points, that big alley oop at Keramas, it was also against Seabass.
Old Seabass appears to be a whipping boy for the big guns. Was on the raw end of Slater's perfect 20 at Fiji last year. JJ at Keramas and also here.
Otts Too- sick barrel! 10
Mick, Parko, Taj knocked out. Medina, Slater & Bourez through.
Any mathematicians wanna crunch what this means for the title race? Medina pulling further ahead, plus Slater likely to start his charge?
DONNY!
Taj, Parko and Fanning all comboed with 3 mins to go in their heats...thats pretty rare!
Can someone help me as to why on so many rides the top 44 are struggling to flick out post barrel without stacking it. The commentators (MP) are saying it's because they "are simply travelling too fast!"
And on that note regarding equipment....with many of the barrels being big and clean and speed being a factor why isn't anyone riding channel bottoms.. Surely in these conditions they would have to be the board of choice?
Educate me please?
Where can you find upcoming heats on the ASP site? Also on the old one there used to be an easy way to see everyone's past results now it's gone. I like to check to see how a bad result will affect a surfers year like Taj for example with this result.
Interesting quote from Kelly on the asp website regarding swell intervals.
"This is probably the best I've ever surfed Chopes," he continued. "It's just big enough for that outside ledge to go hollow. I would say it's almost safe out there. ... [It's] taller seas, but shorter intervals. Chopes doesn't like that 18-second interval, and this is 15 or so. This is where it gets beautiful."
Does anyone wonder if the big three Australians today had tomorrow playing on their mind .....
They just didn't look comfortable out there , even with so much experience .
Short interval swell or not , tomorrow is going to be interesting size wise . I don't want to moz anyone , but I'm pretty sure blood will be spilt on the reef .
Anyway , looking forward to where that limit could be . Hopefully J2 and Kelly will meet in the final ( does the draw allow ??) , or maybe Owen or Otts .
Interestingly when I saw the footage of Hog and GM , as soon as I saw it I knew exactly why .... Interestingly others were falling off at their end of their waves , adrenalin comedown ? Or mental blank !?!
GM didn't , ( amongst others ) , I have a feeling that the winner will be someone that didn't fall ...( no nerves , little emotion , focused , resolute !
Jeez it's pretty good viewing this morning.
Go Dion!
C'mon Dion!
Occ, where is that other wave like chopes again.....5 carloads of brazzos are on there way !
OWEN! On fire.
Owen Wright peaking hard. Check some of the heat totals so far: 19.87, 19.44, 19.33. Amazing waves being ridden.
This would have to be about as good as Chopes gets wouldn't it?? It is mesmerizing how clean and perfect it is. I could almost convince myself I could surf it...............I wish!
Geez its going to be a firecracker heat Wright and Slater. Stu he's going to have to post another 19 to get past Kelly you would think.
Medina doing it again with strategy so so clever.
Anything over 3.5m at 15 seconds and I guess it becomes a tow wave. Fascinating stuff with tidal variations and how glassy it is with a light NEaster.
How tough is it. Ace being combo'd with a 9.7 & 9.3. Unbelievable.
Slater pulling back first wave of the set. Makeable? Close to tow realm I'd say, if that line wasn't crossed already.
This is closing in on the Cloudbreak 2011 freesurf for edge-of-the-seat action.
Nutty stuff.
Crazy.
Guts effort Owen.
Take that back - Owen will need a 20.
Good time for an ad break - right on Kellys 10.
tide in the drop, hard to believe but its actually getting better.
Go Bede
KS
Rd 1 - 16.40
Rd 3 - 19.44
Rd 4 - 19.44
QF - 19.80
He's dropped just 4.92 points out of 80.
similar to the first event at Snapper, anyone thinking maybe the judges award the win to Gabby for surfing "smart", i.e., getting some goods ones out on the end section?
Out on the end section? Really...? He's just scored two of the longer barrels of the event in this heat. During his QF against Kolohe they paddled 150m up the point.
I'm with Roller. He has not taken anywhere near as heavy waves as others. They were giving him 9 - 9.5's for long barrels. If Bede had made either of his 2 waves which were easily heaps bigger than the Gab waves, they would have nowhere to go on the score to reflect how much better it was.
Gabs has made the final though. Big ups to him.
I think the real final is in the water now...
Seems to be working for him Rolls.
What happens if both Kelly & JJF get a perfect 20?!
3rd wave counts??
PS JJ should of been a 10 as well, just as critical and deeper than Kelly.
And no rail grab either.
+1, I'm glad I'm not a judge for this heat though. Insane.
First surfer to go switchfoot wins.
KS
Rd 1 - 16.40
Rd 3 - 19.44
Rd 4 - 19.44
QF - 19.80
SF - 19.77
Now he's only dropped 5.15 points out of 100.
JJ has to have it!
Ripped off!! JJ's were 10's.
Thought so too. If Gab gets a 9.67 for a same length of tube, half the size. What did JJ have to do to get a 10?
Kelly awesome though.
ASP needs to have a real good look at itself.
How could you call that one?
Kelly to smoke Gabs.
Kelly to destoy Gabs.
Did Purps run out of Kelly-sized hats? That one looks a little too big.
What a heat!!
Splitting hairs!! or Skin particles in KS's case!
Elite athletes.
Kelly surfed an incredible heat but IMO JJ was better.....just, but still better.
I don't think Gabs has a chance with the way Kelly is surfing ATM.
Calling Roller! Calling Roller!
Need some commentary on Gabs' last wave.
Kelly loves this scenario.
Can't write him off yet.
well he'd wanna bloody hurry up! that was only a 7 IMO
I'm a born again Gabs lover. Go son!
Yeah, hate to say it. He's killing it.
The judges scoring have got me fucked. Just give Medina the World Title now, and be done with it. Fucking joke ASP.
I think it's all been pretty good to be honest...
Same. Gabs just caught some of the heaviest waves of the event. I even reckon he got underscored on his 9.07.
A sign.
We had a big earthquake tremor just as Gabs got smashed.
The Gods are roaring. Don't do anything rash like head for higher ground.
I'm not going anywhere.
That was almost the greatest comp wave ever surfed.
Kelly to get a 9.33 and win on countback again?
Well deserved win to Gabs.
Anymore tremors Zen?
Just the one.
But freaky sitting here, just as he went down I heard the rumble and the apartment started shaking. Weird.
Congrats to Gab. Deserved it.
Insane final!
Insane contest.
Here it is, right on cue.
https://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/
Crazy!
Would agree insane balls out surfing for this comp. Well done all.
Best comp ever.
...and now we go to Trestles. Hmmmm.
Insane event! Congratulations Gabriel Medina. Yew! Congratulations Owen Wright,. Earned it, Yew!!!
As to Trestles, prepare yourself. Less steak, more sizzle.
Boy best contest by far ever,all the boys deserve awards for having the guts to go for it.Asp jagged another one(,jefferies bay ) ,lets hope Trestles delivers its best side,gonna be hard to come any where near this though.........ever!Well done.