Cloudbreak forecast to come out of the sky
In terms of location Cloudbreak in Fiji is well placed to receive swell from the Southern Ocean storm track. Situated north-east of New Caledonia it receives any swell that passes up the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. This makes for a seasonally consistent set up, although really large swells at Cloudbreak are far more rare happening once every couple of years. However, this time next week one of those large swells is due to make landfall.
All the very large swells at Cloudbreak exhibit a similar synoptic pattern; an intense storm develops south of Tasmania then travels north-east – usually following the Long Wave Trough – up the Tasman Sea. Important factors are the northerly movement of the storm, which aims the storm front directly at Fiji rather than merely receiving sideband energy, and also a storm that extends further north than is typical for the Southern Ocean storm track. The latter is visible on the synoptic chart by isobars reaching far up into the Tasman Sea (See image below left showing isobars - and hence the direction of wind - extending up the Tasman Sea. At right is the corresponding map of surface winds).
This type of system falls into place every couple of years. The last swell of this magnitude was in June 2012 during the Volcom Fiji Pro when the World Tour contest was called off only for the world's best big wave surfers to stand in as the webcast cameras kept rolling. Before that is was September 2010, the “Scardy swell”, when David Scard scored the barrel of the swell and an XXL Ride of the Year entry.
Whether this swell stacks up to those two previous episodes depends on a few factors.
The strength of the polar low being steered up the Tasman Sea will make or break the size at Cloudbreak. Current forecasts have core winds reaching 45-55kts, helping to generate a large long-period S/SW groundswell arriving in the 20 second range late on Sunday.
Open ocean wave heights are expected to reach 48 feet between Tasmania and New Zealand, and by the time the swell hits Fiji we're looking at 3.5 metres of swell at 17 seconds on Monday, delivering forecast 12-15ft surf to Cloudbreak. The large swell periods will help amplify wave heights so we could see the odd bigger 'bomb' in the mix, much like the ones that went through the pack unridden during the aforementioned 2012 Volcom Fiji Pro.
The last thing to consider are the local winds, and at this stage they're looking great with moderate to fresh E/SE trades expected to keep the surf clean all day at Cloudbreak.
We'll update this swell throughout the week. See comments below for latest forecasts. //CRAIG BROKENSHA and STU NETTLE
Comments
Wheres southey ? Remember when you wanted me to go ?
Should go Camel, it'll be fun as for you!
yeah Camel .... you should get your shit together for next season .... I'm sure i'm not the only one here that would like to " kick start " your trip ... ( that should get Shaun onboard ) ...
I've been giving everyone a well earned break from my particular brand of verbal diarrhoea .
Its good to see Shaun has taken up the slack in my absence ... Who else is going make the SN team earn their rupels .....
Caml , I wasn't specifically talking about just Fiji ....
There's two sizable lefts in between you and me that would suit you ....
Ok im keen . Wat lefts ? Ive been going right for years . If theyre in oz im ready . No passport needed !
What did scardy ride in that barrell ?
From memory it was a 7'2".
Don't know if it was a channel bottom...
Twas a 6'8 AB. SWELLNET: Thundercloud story last year.
Whatever it was, he pumped it hard like a short-board from so deep in the barrel. Amazing.
A clip on utube from a different angle shows Scardy paddling in.
cant believe he paddled in on a 6'fucking 8.
Same session Ryan Hipwood- what the hell am I doing out here on a 6'10.
Udo my guess is it was 7"2- 76 . But i could be wrong , will ask david . Just realised i dont hava passport . Tapping out now .
Dreaming . Scardy on a 7"2 i vaguely rember
Caml, put thundercloud into swellnet search - comment by freeride.
No scardys was a yr or so before hippos wave . Scardy broke his collabone the return trip
.
Dreaming means im dreaming but cant go udo . Forgot fiji aint oz ! Scardy just told me it was a channel 7"2 , Confirmed .
Sounds like someones needs a kickstart program :-D))
Would seem as natural as slipping into a Patagonia.
Sorry couldn't help mesulf.:-)
Slight upgrade in the forecast to 4.1m @ 17.6s Monday morning. Very very large swell!
Pretty sure that one Laurie Towner went down on which was on the cover of a few mags, he was on a 6"8
Reckon you might be right GF. Seem to remember Laurie's attitude as, "I was undergunned but went anyway."
Wonder if Kelly will throw in the towel in France and head over there. 4 foot mush beaches vs ?
Laurie did paddle out on a 7'0 but got ran over by a guy on a 10' rhino which broke it.....6'8 was next biggest he had.
Scardy no longer with worldsurfaris .......whats his job now ?
Justin the gorilla probably ran him over . Sparky & part time g-land surf guide maybe
Frothing!
Tim , you are arent you ! Southey welcome back ! Who surfs the southern shores and also CB ? Cant work that one out . Jeffs waves ? Out at sea waves probably ?
He's older Caml .
Cryptic southey to simple camel , aumm w lynch ? Kangashark island ???
Yeah lozza was on some potato crisp fa sure . The hawaiian connection proved 9-10 ft boards wats needed by catching 20-1 waves compared to the aussie lads . Little mark healey ruled on a 9"6 & kohl C also . If u want to shoot an elephant u need an elephant gun !
.
Go to fiji to prepare ? For wat southey ? Go to fiji for huge left barrells wouldnt you ?
Wats a wsa summer ?
no Caml ... stay in Aust . and prepare for Fiji . ( Although I'm sure you don't need to prepare ) .
wsa . = Western South Australian Summer .... ( which we all know lasts for about 8
Pity i dont understand riddles . But will keep trying to decifer lik a pirate does with treasure maps.
I'm not going to say anymore ...
Best you use some of the computer weather skills you've been workin' on and get to these areas u probably already know of ... i'm sure if you sniff around on the right weather patterns someone will recognise you , and guide that last bit . Sans cameras.
U dont make no sense . Does anyone know wtf that means ? Why would u bother guarding waves nobody surfs in seal / shark colony area ?
@southy, glad you refrained from going any further as there are enough clues.
Caml, There are a lot of nobody's like southy and myself out there surfing waves that nobody surfs, just like the nobody's around where you live like to keep things quiet, I don't hear you talking about all the good waves you get out camping in the dead of winter. Na that wouldn't go down to well in the carpark would it?
Before you all jump on me about localism BS, like southey said do your homework jump in the car and have a poke around, I'm more than happy to share waves with a few travelers , I've taken many traveling surfers to secret spots(in the boot) just have someone to share such good waves with, it's not about keeping it all to ourselves, but why post a signpost on the internet giving lazy surfers direction, better they go to the ment's.
Hmmmm??? Lefts like cloudbreak eh?
I'm going to be a slight stick in the mud here.
This swell might be a tad over-hyped. Storm and associated fetch looks a tad too zonal for my liking compared to the Scardy and Volcom swells.
Hmmm...it is a slight bit more zonal than would be ideal, but the core winds are very impressive and there's enough passage between the southern tip of Tassie and northern tip of NZ for a good bulk of the swell to pass. Even if it doesn't quite stack up it'll be the largest Cloudbreak swell since the Volcom swell.
I wouldn't worry about it goofy, from where you live if you had the right flight connections it would be faster to go and surf cloudbreak an as you know from experience a hell of a lot more reliable.
ask rigga goofy .... then stay stum .
Stum? Please explain
Agree shaun , point taken . Freeride yeah it seems to downgrade a bit . Fri ? Ok will check your forecast down your way southey cos not much going on west of the black stump
anyway, I'd stab a kickstarter jam float to get our man Caml over to Cloudy for one of these swells.
Get your passport ready Goulden, there's people out there with money who want to pay to watch you dance.
Kickstart, it's the new, Newstart.
Which poses the question would crowdfunding affect your dissability pension caml?
Yeah I'd chuck in some shekels to see the camel gallop down some big blue moving sand dunes
See what I mean caml, if anyone needs a kickstart it's you, they're lining up.
Is their anyone willing throw in a few bucks to get me over there, I can guaranty you will see at least one hilarious lip launch, that would have to worth it!
Shaun . You were right .... young guys these days need to be spoon fed ...
Not Rat cunning , noust to any of 'em ..... ;-)
Goofy , old mate . Google Urban dictionary - Stum or Shtum .
Its origins are German .
Anyway off topic . just message me as I'm not going to divulge here .
Or just take Friday off , and Wander .
Kick in this morning here, clean with bombs every so often.
No PM's here anymore southy, pity some of the ones I used to get were pretty inventive.
Shaun . Goofy has my email . He knows people i do .
PS . Today and tomorrows local swell isn't the same one for friday here and monday Fiji . This swell your now seeing does however lay the foundation to help fridays ( produced Wed / Thurs ) grow rapidly . ( agitated sea state ) .
Yeh thats right southey already swell there when she starts to blow . I can see your forecast roga that. Thanks for encouragment . Got some incredible 8"6 , 9"6 , 10"6 quad ready but have forgotten the vital travel book .
Southey i have doubts about wsa . Continental shelf too shallow & far for any proper heftiness . But wv now theres some bathymetry ..
Oh and also ki
Have to work Friday Southey but im interested about this mystery wave you talking about. I'll try to figure it out and if I get stuck youll be hearing from me hahah
Oh and caml in your last comment are you talking about king or kangaroo?
Caml do you know who is gonna be there for this swell ,tassie boys, hippo ,dorian , Joshiah should go ?
yeah the caml, nothing to show more, u real deakl, you spun me out loveltkly inme utmost respect. fuck i need classesss, caml thbe most good friend surfer ever
Dont know anybody at all . Not once
caml, that not my post. but it gave away the japanese prick( Computer geek who used my computer) whose been fucking posting stuff as me on sites. luckily i knew he pulled an insurance fraud and i let him know i would get him nailed if he kept it up. so finally i might have this problem sorted. If I ever met you, i had a drink in the pub ay Kalbarri with a bloke called camel, but could be another bloke. love your surfing at g-land though, fully shacked.
all we have in aussi is miggies closest thing to cloud break ,colour and power , in one ,yeap dream away, good ocean swells atm Fiji for us one day, big waves big boards, big tubes nice .....................
Welcome Karl .
How long have you sat quietly and read ? Careful I think Uplift has a thing for ya .
Its out there Karl , but definitely not tropical , and only starts to break above 8ft . Probably similar to the Back reef that is being surfed Cloudbreak as opposed to where it breaks under 6ft . Would get bigger than Fiji more regularly . Unfortunately wind is not its friend .
Good to hear from ya .
Karl haha how could u be here commenting . And tom carroll ! 2 of my bestest legends
lookn forward to seeing
I just came on the seen to read about brett herring seeing about his come back, some one said check on swellnet ???? and he.s back good to here , caml iv been all over the place as late returning home to enjoy west swells yes looks ,I no waves good there returning , first winter swell going to hit tomoz ere , looks ok ............. ? not fiji
Are you in the Northern Hemisphere Karl ?
Northern , tad colder than Fiji swell chasing......!
Gee Karl .... really getting around .... starting to live up to Finney's ( Exmouth ) knickname for ya . " Karlos " ....
long way from being off the sth side of Bluff escparpement , fishing for Pinky's and Spanish flag .
A guy on here ( mike hunt ) , said he last saw you struggling near the rivermouth rocks at margies in a solid swell after a fair spell out of the water ???
Good to hear your back into it !
Ludicrous. Wrong fucking carl. Surprise, surprise. That was one tooth Sydney goofy carl. The other Karl's 'the kid' Karl, guitar totin' gyprocking backhander. Where do you find these gumbies kid?
no struggles near rocks ? Southey, uplift the kid wants to meet the gumbies, they no where the waves are swellnet ??
uplift , back in ya $75/hr sweat
maybe they were talking about Uplift's toothless mate Carl .....
'Sorry' That pretty much sums the gumbies up.
'They no where the waves are swellnet ??'
Yeh kid, just like the gumbies drowning on the rocks stories.
'Sorry Karl can't remember who it was... but I'll just flap me gums and squwark anyway'
Again, no, not MAYBE chicken soufflé, it WAS one tooth, goofy carl. A bit like the chicken souffle blacks story.
Faarkin 'scrungy' (gillos) told 'clugga' (hedland) who told 'diggsy' (hopes) who seen 'digga' (island... s... s) who reckons 'craggsy' (burly hulk of a cunt... secrets) who faaaaaarrkin...
Everything is on track for this swell to come in to a very similar size to the Volcom Fiji Pro swell in 2012.
Below I have the raw model forecast data for both events, and this coming swell is forecast to be a touch bigger at its peak but with a touch less period.
It's gonna be thumping!
YEW
hello karl beadham east coast to peak at midnight ganna be good to see
Tommyruff ~ herring ?
and where you be surfing tomorrow Uplift ........... ?
Yeah thought so ..... sucker .
That captured fetch looks bigger than the Volcom swell, but maybe mistaken - need a bigger WAM, is there one that goes to the Antartic.
Whats the core wind speeds on the satellite?
Windy trades forecasted for monday but that was same as volcom day too.
nope, they had a devil wind flow that backed off in the arvo. Not trades.
Scardy swell had strong trades.
ASCAT looks good this morning. Purple haze.
Yeah Steve, but the forecast was for strong trades that day too, same for this Monday. But on that day a local trough developed. Normally N wind not that good but it was so light and waves were big it didn't matter
Also low tide first thing so it will be on for Monday morning CB
Slightly traumatizing
Ha, just turn off the computer and internet over the next 4 days Camel and ignore it ever happened!
Was solid and slightly too roar mid morning . Spewing I had to be home late arvo .
Option A was ruined a little I presume by Wednesdays blow with a little sand spoiling the channel , coupled with morning sickness and slight wonk from the old swell .... no good
spewing it was offshore as early as 10pm all night , then soon as the drizzle pissed off old mate E wind got a Guernsey with N . :-(
Here's hoping they get co operative winds . I have a feeling that the Trough and associated cloud cover was a rare blessing during the Volcom free surf !
Raw is good where I surfed in the morn, cleans better but raw and chunkey is interesting, should have seen how straight the swell was late evening southy, the tide wasn't exactly right for my wave of pleasure(let's just call it Precious) but clean so it was fun instead of scary. Southy you really do have to give up your day job. :-))
Would not have minded someone to surf with for that last hour of light, haha.
YEW
Yeah well done . I had a window of time I missed it . I could of taken option B: without sighting A :
Someone was towing , by the time I returned I'd ran out of time . Watched two blokes paddle for 15 mins then gone .!!! So be it . ( Option C , looked incredibly heavy /unrideable )
As it turns out I would have missed my eldest ride his bike sans training wheels if I stayed .... :))
It's gonna be overcast and drizzly into the afternoon Monday, all things lining up for a special day, here's hoping!
YEW
Frothing!
OK forecasters is this swell still on track , size as predicted ?
Udo - https://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=fiji_wave
Thanx .Tim Bonython is frothing.........Tims twitter page has a link to a pic of Mick Corbett on a cow bombie monster XXL contender , pic by Jamie Scott images .
Any reports in yet of how good CB is this morning?
Not yet, hopefully some images/news through the day.
YEWWWWWW
First glimpse from Tim Bonython, looks solid!!!
Eeeeeeek!
FROTHING !
Visser was a no show ?
Saw Mark Mathews at Voodoo on Saturday morning and had a chat. Said he was still up in the air about travelling over there. "It's only to Fiji, why wouldn't you just go?" I asked.
"Aw mate, the bunnies are in the Grand Final."
Dunno if he ended up going over or not, but if he stayed I doubt he'd regret missing big Cloudy. Friggen amazing games by the bunnies.
At least Fiji lived up to the hype.
Morgs charging! Photo by Beau Pilgrim https://instagram.com/beaupilgrim
Chad Campbell got a bomb (https://instagram.com/chadkcampbell):
So SN forecast of 12-15 foot was pretty much bang on, from what I've seen so far.
Surfline's Kevin Wallis sent out a major down grade to the pros. This combined with a good early season swell in Hawaii probably stopped a lot of the travelling pros so left the playing field to a crew of underground chargers. Saw a photo of Morgs getting kegged.
Looked like windy trades and were up early. Geez Resturants must have been insane too. Cmon Tim let us know how it was, we are all frothing too.
tbh those shots look a bit underwhelming. Looks a solid ten feet on the sets. Maybe twelve. No-where near fifteen.
Way under the Volcom swell and a bit less than the Scardy swell.
We also forgot the swell the year after Scardy's when Hippo got that bomb and Bruce Irons got mowed on that big pink board.
12-15 called by a couple of the crew who surfed it.
fair enough....maybe it's just the video grabs being shown that look underwhelming.
it just doesn't have that massive big blue Cloudbreak look to it.
Steve mate, if you're calling Morgs wave 10ft, you've gotta get some glasses!
Surfline has a report up. Do they get an exclusive with every photographer?? I know Winer is on the payroll but they get it all.
https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/rasta-hippo-morgan-and-crew-of-underg…
What were they calling France in the final ...8-10ft ?
Pic 3 on surfline is 15ft plus
udo - you can't rely on the ASP to define the wave heights haha.. I don't know it always seems smaller in the pictures. When it gets over 10 foot don't they just divide the wave face in two to get the size. It's pretty big either way eh??
yeah, wave size funny to call hey, well done to all who had a crack i reckon, lots of energy and emotion. good on ya fellas