Rip Curl Pro Bells: Updated Forecast
Last week our early forecast identified a poor blocking pattern for the Rip Curl Pro waiting period which starts on Wednesday. Unfortunately, even with a few more days of data the signs are still no better for the upcoming event.
It's not really the lack of swell – there'll be many days of 3ft (head-high) waves - but more so the poor winds that will affect Victoria.
A moderate sized south-west groundswell is due to fill in tomorrow (Tuesday) across the Surf Coast and then ease off through Wednesday (the first day of competition) and further into Thursday.
Bells and Winki should offer 3ft waves on Wednesday morning with the chance for the odd bigger set, backing off into the afternoon and further again into Thursday. Thursday morning will be around 2 ft+.
On Wednesday morning winds will be moderate to fresh from the north, creating some slight bump on the reefs, but from late morning they should swing more north-west, remaining offshore into the evening.
From Thursday conditions will become poor as a strong onshore change pushes through before dawn, kicking up moderate windswell during the day. The windswell will ease Friday but winds will remain poor from the east.
A small inconsistent south-west groundswell is due Saturday building to the 3ft range, followed by pulses on Monday and Wednesday of similar size. However, once again the winds will spoil the party. Saturday should see a light north-east devil wind, while Sunday could be a good day to run under lighter northerly breezes. The swell will probably be easing from an inconsistent 3ft.
Come Monday poor conditions will return with a fresh southerly change, persisting from the south-east to south for the rest of the week as a large blocking high stalls to the west, directing relentless onshore winds into Victoria.
There is still hope for a large swell to end the period, but winds associated with this swell look to be onshore as well.
Backup locations such as 13th Beach, Johanna and Woolamai come to mind when the outlook at Bells is poor. However, the organisers are limited in where and when they can move so they'll have their work cut out for them.
We'll continue to keep a close eye on how this tricky period plays out. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
Have to say first snapper and now this it is kinda funnny welcome back to the real world.
Not much luck this year for the WSL.....usually Bells starts tomorrow,Tuesday which would have been a great as there will be pretty good surf......
I reckon there is another window on Sun.......hopefully very light ...and then ....end of next week a swell but nothing guaranteed at this stage.....
but all in all Craig...spot on with those damn easterlies...ahhh
If is does move, I'd like to see it at Woolami.
Generally speaking , it'll be just a little too big for most beaches .
Maybe that should head to the prom . ;-)
Hey!!!!!! get your own idea!!!!!!!! ;)
BTW, southey, what's happening with Bastion point? Has the government fucked it yet? If not, should the WSL move the bell there, make the most of this upcoming east coast low, and make a political statement for all endangered waves at the same time?
Now that'd be a way to get people interested.... Bit more spice than the "fuck" word from Medina lol
https://www.surfrider.org.au/campaign/bastion-point-mallacoota-vic
I stopped there on my drive across the country and can confirm that there is a stupidly large breakwall there now and no waves worth looking at on its inside. Shame cause the setup looked rad!
I think you'll find that fishing access and environmental effects of the structure , the increased traffic that it would bring. Then the roll on effect of increased traffic on the entire town and surrounds that it is causing was more import at then the surf spot . But the surf was used another weapon in the unsuccessful fight against it . Not to mention the the abundance of fisheries nearby .
I spent some time there over summer and the general consensus was that broken boards was buggered due to backwash on all but the right tide. Didn't get a swell big enough to get it going so can't say for myself.
But inside the breakwall, back towards the beach, there was a lot of sand build up and there could potentially be some great banks there with the right swell direction.
Nice to see the branding of the event is aligned to main sponsor "Melbourne" - which is akin to Brisbane being the main sponsor of the Quikky pro on the Gold Coast. Melbourne is over an hour away from Bells with no ocean waves any where close. Maybe they could surf off the wake of the Spirit of Tasmanina at St Kilda beach? I guess the WSL take the money where they can get it.
Interesting comment, but Melbourne has always been far more connected to the Victorian "Surf Coast" than Brisbane is to the Gold Coast, purely because most of the people who populated the place are Melbourne refugees. Founders of Rip Curl and Quikkie are all Melbourne boys, for example. There's no city around Torquay to have to negotiate on a surf trip so other than passing fairly quickly through Geelong it's an easy trip for Melbourne weekend (or even weekday morning) warriors looking for predictably lined up waves when a groundswell hits. I know because I have been one, and still miss those long range evenly spaced swells despite today residing on the East Coast.
So it's a stretch yes, to align Melb to Bells - but not like aligning Brisbane to the GC. The Gold Coast developed in many ways independently from Brisbane - more like a southern state refugee's paradise - in which, as a side note, the perfect beaches of the southern GC were strangely neglected for a windblown sandspit mistakenly dubbed Surfer's Paradise. Lucky for the surfers, until about the late 1990s when surfing "Super(crowded) Bank" simply became a tourism industry of its own.
I hope they don't go to wolli. There are enough tards out there now without opening it up to a bunch of drop in heros - but I guess if the numbers watching stats are correct, it wont really matter. If its N/E they will have to head to 13th. If there is any east in the wind, let them head to Quaro if they want a journey to fight it out with all those other westcoast living bogans traipsing over on surfmats and other things masquerading as boats.
Its gonna be great to see them all going over the falls together on the inside with a bit of reef thrown in.
they can't move the comp fri/sat/sun/mon......
And that's the killer. Looks like they'll have to deal with lumpy/glassy but fun Bells Sunday morning and that's it.
Also winds for Fri/Sat have worsened anyway, ruling out 13th/Woolies in any case.
Did you surf bells on sat arvo brutus ? riding a mal of sorts?
De Souza for the win. He's going to be inspired by the similar conditions that saw his hero Trent Munro take home the bell and he's going to go full jockey retard .
De Souza would have a much better advantage in solid Bells than small. He's no slouch in the big stuff anymore.
Run it at Gunnamatta.
Or better still, Flinders. That way, if the surf drops out, the organisers can quickly switch it to a golf tournament. Or lawn bowls....
Joycey head to head with Old Baldy....
Mick Fanning would like all local surfers and blow in's from Melbourne to clear the line up so him and his fellow pro's can practice.
Craig looks good for east coast (of Melbourne) over Easter.
There will be windows for sure.
Pro surfing is a 1% level of involvement driven by $. Elite athletes should be able to perform regardless of conditions and should allow an opportunity for more diverse sleds to be showcased beyond a 6.0 low volume slither.
EC's trying to prog something very late in the back end of the waiting period.....although with the models struggling with back to back lows in the Tasman, me thinks the superlong range charts need to be taken with a grain of salt to some extent. Fingers crossed on EC though.
It may possibly be too late for the comp window too if it's (fetch) delayed any further.
I'm impressed with KP. He managed to describe the problematic synoptic pattern (large blocking highs, and a lack of NE-tracking polar lows) reasonably well for a lay-person.
I'm led to believe that KP has a pretty robust IQ level .
so if amateurs amongst us can get it I'm unsure why you would not think that he'd be all over it .
It's not about 'getting it', southey. Plenty of people can read weather maps and swell charts.
The hardest part is communicating it effectively. Especially on a live webcast.
yeah i'd be fucked .
Haha, put so eloquently :p
Apparently brash uncouth expletives are all the rage on WSL live media .... maybe i should lineup for a job .
Winki wasn't contestable today? For women or men?
Looked good right after they called it off. Don't know if infrastructure was setup for Winki yet, heard they were still testing speakers through the day etc..
Ha!
Anyone interview Gabby about that decision?
Surely they could've gone on hold for a bit.
Here is a forecast update. Absolute crap for the foreseeable future.
The forecast charts have not shifted at all for days it looks like a virtual guarantee that Easterly winds and small swells are on the cards. We may get the occasional southerly blast but off shores and decent swell look highly unlikely. May get a light land breeze Sunday morning fanning a very ordinary peaky swell.
I just hope the WSL does the right thing by the punters and runs the event over Easter. Better to run it in crap with people watching, rather than running it in crap in front of empty stands.
:-)))
Kelly Slater is retiring after the Bells contest?!? Old news??
yeah he put it up on instagram half hr ago.. april 1st in US?
Guys, what day is it in the US..
You fools :-)
It would be second time round for that 1st April hoax from KS tho wouldn't it?? Could be the real deal, given the surf he's had to endure at Snapper & now Bells :-)
Hmmm...
https://www.swellnet.com/news/surfpolitik/2014/04/01/kelly-slater-quits-…
Another dramatic release on the same day last year
Yeah that was legit last year!
Kelly has too much pondering time at bells. It must mess with his mechanics. That's assuming he is of course a robot.
Confirmation with this hashtag.. #HappyApril1stEveryoneBackHome
oK Guys heres mt 11/2 cents worth....am a bit more optimistic on the winds....Sat Sun and Mon morning could be OK to surf as the onshore winds look to have subsided and could be glassy with low tides in the morning..there will be very contestable bowl in the mornings.....possibly even Tues morning...with Weds /thurs possible finish days .....morning time only......end of the week looks easterly....yuk!
so will be an OK Easter....mostly mornings ....and will be able to finish the comp in the waiting period!
Thanks Brutus my buddies who carpool from StKilda will now know what to look for to get less crowded waves at Bells. If you see me come say hi I will be the guy with the well groomed beard and retro MR single fin holding the selfie stick.
I assume you'll be carpooling in the fully restored VW Kombie?!? :-)
No no us hipsters ride in my HR holden station wagon. If it's too heavy at bells 4ft or above we head down to torquay for some straight handers. After that we go to the patagonia store and stock up before a rush back to StKilda so we can tell the chicks at the bar about our day surfing epic bells and show them a few selfies.
Haha!! Nice one. A splendid day out :-)
It's always a splashing outing. Especially when we get a party wave me on my twin fin my pal on his mal in front and a new found acquaintance behind who is always cheering I think. Sometimes my Dad and Uncle join us on their SUP's they are the kings catch all the set waves from super deep then get party waves on the other sets as they paddle back. Epic Go Pro footage to watch at my StKilda apartment the next day.
A well painted picture. And to think, someone on this forum once described surfing as "anarchy" can you believe?!? I think it must of been predictive txt & he actually meant "for all the family"......
Anarchy no your right it's "for or the family" and whats better surf forecasting and onsite surf forecasting/reporting makes it so easy we can arrange the day before have the car packed with a plethora of boards on the roof ready for our outing. One of the passengers usually checks the morning observation on the way and we vote on where to go over a soy latte.
If we get to a spot and other friends are surfing we text each other to say where is good sometimes if we are lucky we get uncrowded waves of 50 at Bells or further afield. Once a killjoy loner had a go at us for paddling out in a group just past Lorne on a weekend trip killed the vibe man.
Saturday still looks dicey for me MC, only latest model updates are showing a light NE'ly. Most others have fresh SE tending E/SE (depends on where the surface trough sits).
But totally agree regarding Sunday and then every morning from Monday through Thursday on the latest data. EC still showing average S'ly winds Tuesday but better Wednesdy and Thursday.
Here's hoping!
Why the feck are they running now? It's poo!!! Is this the best it's gonna get?
KP pushed the panic button? Ha.
Looks fun and ripable though Don.
Y'know what, it looks kinda fun to me. I'd happily be in the water if I was down there.
Bells under a strong SW wind is a LOT more surfable than under any form of E'ly wind, which is what's on the cards for the forecast period.
And, there's size on offer too: I'd prefer bigger onshore waves at Bells than small clean waves (ie last few heats of Day 1).
Just m 2c anyway.
Not sure I'd call "fun" surf what I want to see the top world professional surfers surf in. Seriously, it looks like a poor day at a beachie somewhere with those fat wash throughs etc. Not my idea of the WSL that's for sure and if I got knocked out in this type of surf I'd be super pissed off.
Once the wind goes Easterly it's pretty much good night in terms of surfability at Bells. May as well hold it at Juc beach break.
Yes MC, winds look lighter on Sunday and Wednesday but if there's any sort of easterly chop running through the line up, it will need a proper offshore to make it reasonable.
About the only hope for decent waves is for the swell to drop out completely and the wind to set up from the NE very late in the waiting period. Relocate to PI or down South. Even then it's still looking very sea breezy in the afternoons all next week. If I was running the comp, I'd be getting as much of it done today, bang out a few morning heats over the weekend and keep the fingers crossed for late next week at another location.
The surf forecast has just got a whole lot better (I'm gonna close this thread, we can continue discussing over there).
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2015/04/02/rip-curl-pro-…