Billabong Pro Tahiti early forecast
After the abrupt end to the J-Bay Pro, I'm sure many world tour surfers would prefer facing off against huge Teahupoo rather than that which lurks beneath. Fortunately for them they'll be safe from both at the upcoming Billabong Pro Tahiti. Classic Teahupoo it will not be.
The early outlook for Tahiti is worrying with mid-period swells from funky directions forecast to hit Teahupoo. Unfortunately for the WSL, who've had a lean run in 2015, this goes against the pattern of the last three months.
After an almost non-stop autumn and winter, where the paddle threshold at Teahupoo got elevated then elevated again, Tahiti's prime swell window is set to shut down for a considerable part of the contest waiting period.
The ideal setup for Teahupoo is to have a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough sitting just east of New Zealand, directing polar fronts from under New Zealand on a parallel track with the coast north-east towards Tahiti.
The opposite to this is if we get an upper level blocking pattern or ridge sitting just east of New Zealand directing swell south toward Antractica. This scenario will shut down the prime swell window, which is unfavourable for Teahupoo's swell prospects – and that is exactly what's forecast (shown above).
Current forecasts have this upper level blocking pattern setting up camp for at least the first half of the forecast period. However, it's not a total loss, the jet stream is expected to split, and this will at least provide the potential for a cut-off low to develop in the swell window and produce some funky short-range swell. These cut-off systems can also interfere with local winds if nearing too close to Tahiti, disrupting the usual E/NE trades.
One such system is forecast to develop a couple of days before the contest starts Friday week and may deliver surf in the 6-8 foot range - a good size but it'll be a shorter period than Teahupoo swells of comparable size.
Stay tuned, we'll keep you updated with the specifics in the comments below.
Comments
Crap waves. Heres the soundtrack for WSL
I imagine the S/SE well direction will seriously dampen down the typical chopes wave shape that we'd expect to see even at 6-8ft also. May lead to more open face carves/walls than epic big deep throaty barrels.
Swell direction from the cut-off scenario would have a little more west than usual (so more bowly, less predictable). However the latest GFS runs have been suggesting a broad region of S/SE winds well to the south of Tahiti that would also provide a concurrent (or slightly later) southerly swell for the region. Will be interesting to see what happens.
I reckon Chopes is better when a bit smaller anyway. Can get pretty boring for the viewers at the 8ft+ mark as all they do is take-off, grab rail and stand tall. When its smaller i've seen some great barrels threaded and even a few turns at the end.
Actually just looked at the latest GFS forecast and Sat 15th and Sun 16th Tahiti time are looking a lot better.
Yeah, mid-period swell in the latest 00z update still has size, but it's the only real source (and winds are terrible). The larger long-range groundswell possible for late in the period has also been wiped.
Terrible winds? I thought the e/SE trades are ok for chopes?
Light E/SE winds are fine. Any strength and it starts to get a little ridgey, and if the direction is any more S of E/SE it starts to get bumpy. Best direction is light E/NE thru' NE.
Ok thanks Ben.
S/SE-SE winds forecast for the swell, pretty bad.
wsl to blow it again for sure, that lean run will continue, just like fiji and the final day at j bay of course don't count and margaret river, lean as well..another bad year.?
i'm not sure i understand how the WSL have blown it. do you mean by buying the tour in a year when the weather hasn't lined up, or isn't forecast to line up, with every comp?
also, could always be worse: i remember when they used to surf comps (in tight shorts) on set dates regardless of waves. makes recent Rio events look like pumping perfection.
yes i agree, but as Stu highlights it's been a lean run in 2015 and also it's not going to be classic Teahupoo even though there' s nearly three weeks to go. I'm wondering what classic Teahupoo is? Some of us hell chargers maybe it's got to be 8 feet plus to be classic, but then if it's really good 4 feet plus we'll call it continuation of the lean year? The bar was set high last year when they got lucky but can it be a great event without reaching those heights?
It starts in 5 days and no-one cares about 4 foot Teahupoo. We can watch 1001 videos of that. The final day of last year's event, now that was "classic" Teahupoo.
as long as there's at least 2-3 good/contestable waves per surfer per heat then surf comps are great to watch as far as I'm concerned. i'll watch it over ANY organised professional sports.
"Unfortunately for the WSL, who've had a lean run in 2015".......... Seen worse.... Margs pumped..... Fiji had some bombs....
Jbay finals were pumping...
And Craig, Ben, your gut feeling on this long term forecasted polar low out around 175w?
Models are real wishy washy with this devlopment, likely to be some swell producing system but not significant at this stage.
The cut-off low is still looking to generate a large SW tending S/SW and then S/SE swell but local winds remain a problem over the weekend, improving a touch next week as the swell fades.
Real tricky waiting period ahead.
So will they run it with this bigger swell but average winds on this coming Sat/Sun? Nothing of real interest after this until the end of the waiting period.
There's another funky mid-period SW swell due later next week but with SE winds again.
Better S/SW groundswell due last day of the waiting period, so I think they'll try run later Sunday and then through Monday to Wednesday morning with the funky S'ly swell.
When do you guys reckon the comp will run again?
Probably later Monday and all day Tuesday with a good new S/SW groundswell. Winds aren't perfect but workable and similar conditions to the first days of competition.
Size is probably in the 5-6ft to occasionally 8ft range near dark Monday and early Tuesday.