Largest swell of the season incoming for Hawaii
Big wave surfers are gearing up as the largest swell of the Hawaiian season bears down on the islands, however the Eddie organisers are in limbo. How big is it gonna get?
A 'bombing low' (low pressure system that drops more than 24hPa in central pressure in 24 hours) has formed in the North-West Pacific, with satellite observations already picking up a fetch of storm to hurricane-force NW winds.
This low will continue to strengthen today, with core wind speeds expected to reach 70kt+ over the coming 12 hours, acting over an already active sea state generated by a strong frontal system just prior.
This will result in an XXL swell event, the largest of the season so far, filling in Friday and peaking during the middle of the day to 20-25ft across selected breaks on the North Shore, with much larger 30ft+ surf across deepwater offshore reefs.
Winds were looking a little dicey earlier this week, but the latest model runs now suggests we should see variable breezes early before fresh NE winds kick up through the day, creating tricky conditions.
Whilst the swell from the 'bombing low' is expected to peak through Friday, Saturday will still remain very large as an expansive fetch of severe-gale NW winds behind the low produces a long tail of sizeable secondary swell.
A slow easing trend from the 15-20ft range early Saturday morning is likely, with a further downwards trend through Sunday.
With such a large swell and workable winds on the cards, it's interesting to note that there's been no updates regarding the The Quiksilver in Memory of Eddie Aikau event.
Usually, contest organisers will publicly discuss upcoming XXL Hawaiian swells as relevant weather systems appear on the charts, however the event website hasn’t been updated since December 3rd.
With less than 48 hours until large waves pound the North Shore (Saturday morning Australian), it would appear that this swell is going to pass through to the keeper. It’ll be interesting to see whether Waimea reaches the Eddie thresholds of 20ft+ Hawaiian, as current forecast data suggests is positive.
We'll keep you updated with photos and videos that come out of this run of swell from Friday.
Comments
Bloody hell!
There are those 70kt winds!
Any thoughts why they're not talking about running the Eddie? Too small in the morning to get a full day of competition?
Not sure, that's the thing, there's no talk full stop.
maybe they using the cocunut wireless
Looks like the WSL are more focussed on Todos..
Has the low bombed too late and a little too Far East for the Hawaiin's to froth on . A straight N swell would be ideal for Waimea ?!? This could still have a little NNW in it .
Is this the death nells for such a "community " event like the Eddie now that the WSL has taken over many of it's combatants /invitees : feed bowl " and since that has occurred is now pulling the rug from under the Hawaiin's feet .
Has the Eddie lost relevance now that guys are paddling size beyond its realm , have JetSki mounted cameras , drones and longer lenses replaced the natural theatre /viewing spectacle that the bay provides . ( in that case , Bells is done for : it's relevence in the performance surfing world is past ) .
OR is this just " the lemon next to the pie " ...... ?!?
I'd rather have Winner of the Eddie 2016 next to my name than winner of the Todos Santos blah blah 2016.....Eddies best of the best the BWWT is most of the best plus some other local guys that charge and whichever high profile pros are willing to dive in...the Eddies an iconic event...Todos is just another stop on the BWWT
I agree with your sentiment , but i'm just trying to put some logic to the situation .
I know what i would be watching if i had a choice of watching all locations sumultaneously on TV .
JAWS hands down , although winds may not be choice on this occasion .
And to support my agreeance with Tux , if i had the luxury to choose any location to be at in person . Definitely the Bay ....... and maybe if i could indulge myself away from all the bro'ing that would be going down perhaps i'd be hanging out in a comfy deck chair , in the bell tower of the church with a full cold esky .... maybe a female companion or two .....
anyway , we can only dream .....
WSL are sadistic and no doubt Todos will most likely produce the biggest carnage .
No where near as consistent as Hawaii , but at the size forecast Waimea maybe too Raw . If the swell is too relentless then i doubt there would be so many combatents keen . The overall size of the combined low complex systems may work against it .
I really think that this may not be the pinnacle of the season . TWT
I agree 100% about Jaws
In relation to carnage if the bay is 25-30ft are there less exit points than jaws and Todos...am I right in saying if the bay is really big its a lot harder to sit in the chanel on a ski and be a spectator?
I know it sounds dumb ( as we are talking about three serious spots ) , but todos starts to get real mutant in REALLLY BIG. Swells ., steps boils , shifting peak . Seriously sketchy inside ..".... There will be carnage .
No, didn't bomb too far east at all, excellent swell.
Some very interesting questions you pose there Southey. No idea what the Hawiians are thinking about it all, the history/tradition of the event etc but it would be interesting to know.
No doubt the surfing being done at Jaws these days makes Waimea look pretty second rate in the wow factor department....
Been waiting for Eddie Rothmam to start ranting......
Almost as entertaining as a large Hawiian swell event. Fingers crossed we get both!!
I hope it's the lemon next to the pie, but I feel the contest organisers are struggling under the weight of responsibility and are making one simple mistake. They are trying too hard. It's a thing. It happens in all sports and arts and relationships and etc etc. The cape fear boys succomed to it. I'm not saying it's an easy job, but sometimes you have to pull the trigger. Eddie would go
No talk of the Eddie, any possibility this is related to the major sponsor maybe not having the dollars available to run?
Todos comp on !
And Pat Caldwell has upgraded his forecast as well in line with what I'm expecting..
Peak of 38-48ft (face)..
"A new low pressure formed near 32°N, 160°E on Tuesday. It is near the dateline Wednesday morning, tracking ENE near 50 knots under the strong zonal jet. The surface low pressure is rapidly deepening 1/13. The 15Z 1/13, or 5 am HST, rapidscat satellite pass showed storm- to hurricane-force winds, validating model expectations. The low pressure is predicted to occlude, which would slow down the forward track motion. The occlusion point is expected near 40°N, 160°W, a location where historic low pressure systems produced some of the highest winter surf for north shores. The initial fast motion from the dateline to 160°W would mean a limited fetch duration, but this is compensated by the high existing seas of similar direction from the previous system.
Given the Wave Watch III model under-called the January 4, 2016 event by 3 feet deep water swell, and the similar track to the present 1/12-14 system, this forecast is upping the expected deep water swell relative to the wave model."
https://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/SRF.php
Why the deafening silence on the Eddie? Any ideas?
No idea sorry, size is there, consistency is there, conditions are there. Struggle to find a bigger/better swell this season in my opinion.
I'm with southey.
I just exchanged emails with Jodi Wilmott who does the promotion for Hawaiian events. Her reply was: "Keone Downing says this is not their swell. Off for tomorrow. More pulses coming next week."
Not sure why there was utter silence from Quiksilver.
WSL app explains whats going on...if its at sunset..
The jaws cast is huge with light enough ne wind southey . Waimea prefers more west than north angle I think . Pats forecasts ard great
Second that, Pat's are the best in the business!
Okay thanks Cam .
Craig which is it ?
You said it's not too North a swell ? But cam disagrees .
I don't know intracies of Hawaiin outer reefs effects on swell concentrations , but my initial thoughts on t
Is system was its a mainland swell .
And infact strong El Niño 's during a warm to cold PDO switch are more likely to produce for the mainland extroadinarily large surf and just a more consistent /constant swell run on the islands . The oceanic setups allow the typical Aleutian storms to track further south and more importantly further East and holding peak intensity longer .
This increases consistency in swells for the islands with larger swells running at lower swell intervals as the storms track closer than normal . But swell heights are by far more effected for the Eastern rim of the Nth Pac . The jet stream is also helpful in maintaining such large complex lows , often with multiple embedded lows rotating on each other . The warm of SST' and the thermocline surface mixing is further east than normal and this why the system is bombing and peaking a little more in the N swell window .
Been watching that storm moved super fast went through 2 meridians (always wanted to use that word) in 24 hours on stormsurf.
Be a good time in Hawaii with everyone going away.....but not too sure about close out bay, be a chance to get the wave of a lifetime or die trying.
Seems it just starting to get into gear this intense El Nino.
Whats your parameters reading Southey....still stronger than 96
I think u mean 98 Mick .
It needs to be assessed , but early indications are it is . Usually know by late Jan mid March they have full findings to all indicators . ( the measures need to be averaged over 90 days ) .
The big thing is that PDO /QBO is more similar to where we were at in the period from 1948. -1978 .
Which has in the territory of that big Swell of the late sixties ?!? ' 69 ? was a Nth Pac massive swell , Makaha ? Nth Shore smashed ?
It may've already been said as I haven't read all the comments but perhaps the reason we the Eddie hasn't run & quiksilver haven't updated their website since December 3rd is because they are flat broke & are about to be carved up by a private equity group, I heard somewhere it costs a million dollars to run the webcast, money they don't have. All the financial articles say that the company is worthless so perhaps unless another company picks it up (the Eddie) we might not ever see it again.
Regarding all the speculation about the WSL, it was never their event, even back when it was the ASP it was merely sanctioned by them meaning that they allowed their riders to compete.
I hope that I'm wrong, I was lucky to be on the point at Waimea in 96 to watch & even though the swell dropped & the event was called off halfway through it was so exciting to watch.
Hello all,
Here are a few reason the Eddie may not be running
Only one surf contest per day, in all of Oahu is permitted.
The Eddie needs 20 ft Bouy readings from sun up til sun down.
Swell period , swell angle, wind direction are very important.
Agree LD, add to this, the theatre of Waimea and the tradition of big wave surfing from this great place.
Ld dean is there another contest that day ?
Not to sure Mr Camel, the Da Hui waiting period runs through till saturday though.....i have not checked the forecast for today. to re-iterate the swell needs to read 20 ft for the full eight hours of competition.Variable winds also.
The Eddie has Standards i like that.
Here
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/30969133/rising-swell-to-bring-huge-…
they say
"HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -
Forecasters are predicting a large and dangerous swell that could bring waves as high as 40 feet to the north-facing shores by Friday.
Despite the big waves, the Quiksilver in Memory of Eddie Aikau big wave competition at Waimea Bay is not expected to be held.
That's because the waves are forecast to be inconsistent and aren't expected to reach minimum 40-foot wave face heights for the full eight hours of the competition. The holding period for the surf competition runs through January 29.
The last time the big wave invitational was held was in 2009. In its three-decade history, it's only been held eight times.
While the waves may not be consistent enough for the Eddie Aikau, forecasters are still expecting monster surf Friday."
Is the bruicie irons in it he has to be...
51101 buoy just hit 24ft at 17 seconds. I haven't seen it that big for a long time.
And as if the biggest swell in years wasn't enough...
“Two Marine helicopters collided off the north shore of the Hawaiian island of Oahu, according to reports.”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/military-helicopters-collide-near-hawaiian-…
Just heard from RCJ. He said it "got massive, 20-25ft+ close outs from mid morning to lunchtime.. was sick fun!".
Some amazing footage starting to appear from Peahi.
This is nuts! Jamie Mitchell absolutely flying on a perfectly smooth bomb at Peahi. How's the camera work too? Beautifully framed.
Is that Slater on a bat tail about to paddle out at Waimea?
New pic up of Ol Baldy air dropping on the bat tail
Back repping the mountain and the wave.
Ha! Well spotted. Wonder what his new sponsors think of that?
Wait, wat?
Are you insinuating that Kelly has bought out the bankrupt ex Quiksilver .
To be renamed Quikslater , and the old logo kept . .?
If so would be a coup in business terms .....
No I wasn't, but now you mention it.... Hmmm!
I'd say he had his left over floatation from Quiky and was still using it at cloudbreak a while ago. Its a volcom springy underneath. Wow what a day. Loving the footage.
John John at Waimea.
They got 2 amazing last waves.
Fuck check the closeout set on Hawaiiecodivers insta !!!!
Kelly will do it on a 7.0 probably a 6.0....is this live streaming at all ben? Or anyone know ?
Nah no live streaming.
Here ya go Udo:
Are bat tails good for waimea?
According to Jimmy they are ... And I presume he'll be launching a range of them shortly . Which will of course sell like hot cakes in Merica .
Mind you he could ride a log at the moment and still achieve both .
Cant wait to see him surfing on it....
What a swell at hawaii !
Reverse Cloudbreak?
Wow, how's all the footage and shots coming though, what a day and what a swell! Big miss by Eddie organisers.
Amazing difference in weather too. Sunny on Maui, rain periods on Oahu.
Not holding the event was the smartest thing they could have done .
Imagine how underwhelming the best contest waves would have been compared to this picture perfect Peahi setup .
Would have been embarrassing to the Aikua name .
How good would have the Peahi challenge been today .....
And if you did surf there , how would you go having to board a plane straight after to less impressive todos . BWTGRIND haha
That's a fair point. But won't it always be the case?
Hence I think " regretfully " , that the Eddie contest has passed its used by date .
Throw bells in that category too .
Maybe they should move the Eddie to peahi? Or even make it roaming. It's about celebrating his life by getting the best and putting into the biggest right? Macking CB, peahi, any high performance big wave.
The contest hasn't been running that long right. Why can't they make it mobile?
I would tune into 2 peahi contest each season if they had the swell to run them.
Well carpet,an unfortunately the event is more a celebration of his life , and the fact he was waimea's first life guard with over 500? Rescues to his name might be a bit of a snag .
But there is still hope .
He was born on Maui .
Maybe it's time they took the Eddie home ?!?
Who's going to pitch it to the family .
We want a TV spectacle that inspires ?!?!?
I'll just go back into hiding now ..... A hui hou .
Waimea gets way better than this day , George downing knows how to call it (was it him ?)
They will wait for the right day when the period is shorter . Don't write off todos either it is a good xxl wave & this swell will be huge there too .kellys board worked on that drop after john johns garret mac dive forward stack , I just saw a clip of it
i agree mr Camel, definitely looked pretty burly out there.Keone, son of george.Now contest director i think.
i agree mr Camel, definitely looked pretty burly out there.Keone, son of george.Now contest director i think.
A debris field has been found 2.5km off Haleiwa, for the two crashed military helicopters. We could see debris through the lineup in the coming days (though if the crash happened far offshore enough from Haliewa, I presume the swell and current will push debris eastwards?).
https://www.staradvertiser.com/breaking-news/two-military-aircraft-crash…
Ben read on the gram Plane conducting low level exercises at 50 feet may have contributed to pilot error.....rogue wave ? I will try and find it, was a comment from someone speaking to a military pilot
Explore have there waimea cam on pan today still some big ones coming through interesting if any chargers have any energy left to have another dig today
Pretty glamour out there this am, was still pretty solid but a hefty offshore wind which made the drops hairy. Crowd is getting out of control. Swell is decreasing slowly.
Sean Davey reckons early this morning - the day after yesterday's macking swell - "was still Eddie size".
Leading edge just hit the Half Moon Bay buoy with peak swell periods around 24 seconds. Winds are light S'ly so conditions should be pretty clean.
Here we go Mavericks!
Looks pretty wild out there(at Mavericks). wind lump ect. How big you think it will get tonight/tomorrow Ben ? or what is forecast swell height in feet/ meters.
Honestly haven't been looking at the charts closely for this coast so I'm not sure.
Looks like it will be blown out in the morning, might head down early and take a few photos .
Really mavs is surfable I thought the southerly wind might fukket up . Could be some keen nutters
Love that first shot of Dorian. Wonder what it feels like to be right there at that best spot doing a bottom turn on a monster like that with all that face in front of you on the biggest day of the year. SDcertainly knows how to position himself out there. Some of his last seshs out there have been extraordinary. Certainly my choice for BB of the year. Come on RossCj where are you dude , show them some Ozzie spirit. Oh forgot Garret Mc where are you. All you freaks of surfing show us the Stoke !!
Ross was at Waimea. G-Mac is out of action following last week's incredible wipeout at Mavs.
Someone asked Big Ben Wilko about a monster Aaron Gold rode yesterday
How big would you call that in Australia
Ben Wilko........100ft !
Kelly Slater's first ever wave at Jaws, today.
Anyone know what size board hes on ?Thats amazing turning like that!
So was it a dud question or no one knows what size board Kelly's riding?.
I'm curious too, Penmister, but haven't been able to get size confirmed. No-one seems to know beyond "shorter than normal".
Half the board is under water. Hand on the water.AWSOME!!!!
8"4 or 8"6 I read somewhere but it could be wrong . About that anyway