The Billabong Pro Tahiti early forecast is unfolding very much like it did last year. That is, the waiting period will begin during a quiet period in Tahiti's southern swell window.

When looking at the best swells for Teahupoo we want polar storms developing in the Southern Ocean to push past or directly east of New Zealand up towards French Polynesian (note: these aren't the same swells that hit Fiji; those swells move west of New Zealand up through the Tasman Sea).

The ideal scenario for Tahiti is to have a node of the Long Wave Trough (LWT) sitting directly east of New Zealand to steer the aforementioned storms on the right path. However, that wont be the case this year - at least not during the first half of the waiting period.

The waiting period begins on the 19th August and we're expecting less than favourable swell conditions. This is due to a blocking pattern, courtesy of an expansive high pressure system, developing right across Tahiti's prime swell window. The high is coupled with the LWT peaking just under Tahiti, and together they lessen the chance of any major large south-west groundswells forming through the early stages of the waiting period.

Instead funky, short range southerly swells forming late in Tahiti's swell window are more likely through the first half of the waiting period, if not longer depending on how long the blocking pattern persists over New Zealand.

We'll continue to monitor the outlook for the Billabong Pro Tahiti and provide running updates and commentary below.

Homepage Photo: Tim Bonython

Teahupoo 16-day Forecast Graph
Teahupoo WAMs