New Zealand overshadows Australia...for once
We've only just started to feel the effects of winter's true bite across the country the past week, and this lag in seasons has also translated over to New Zealand.
Today, a large and unseasonal easterly groundswell is currently impacting the country's east coasts under blue skies and offshore winds.
This swell was generated by an incredible mid-latitude low over the weekend, forming well south of Tahiti.
This low sat stationary east of New Zealand, supported by a strong high pressure ridge to its south and south-west, pumping out an amazing fetch of 35-45kt+ winds. At this time of the year, this type of stationary system is uncommon, but the Kiwis aren't complaining with large clean surf today and tomorrow easing the pain from the weekend's rugby loss.
Unfortunatly for Australian surfers, the North Island will shadow the swell from our East Coast. Drawing a line from the strongest part of the low to Queensland shows that the Sunshine Coast will receive the bulk of the swell, grading smaller from the Gold Coast south across the NSW border.
Ben discussed this in his forecaster notes yesterday afternoon, with a slow building trend expected on Thursday ahead of a peak Friday morning to a long-lined and inconsistent 3-4ft+ at open beaches.
The Gold Coast will be a smidge smaller with 2-3ft+ sets down to about Yamba, smaller further south.
This puts forward a classic case for the “if New Zealand didn't exist we'd receive more swell” party, but with these events being fairly rare, I'd rather keep New Zealand where it is, helping trap easterly tracking storms that'd otherwise continue off into the South Pacific Ocean.
Hawke's Bay 16-Day Forecast Graph
Gisborne 16-Day Forecast Graph
East Cape 16-Day Forecast Graph
Other New Zealand Locations
Comments
Had fucking pumping waves in Hawkes Bay last year, not saying where, the locals who befriended me would do a Haka on me if I did. Do yourselves a favor and have a look!!
There are some spots that will be all time over the next few days.
“if New Zealand didn't exist we'd receive more swell” You'd also be fucked as nothing would ever get done here!!
Haha, this is true.
Hey stu no chance of refraction back to east coast NSW u rekon?
Coromandel absolutely firing today. Epic Whanga Bar
Not only no work done here but we also wouldnt have any decent
V8 supercar drivers.
"I'd rather keep New Zealand where it is, helping trap easterly tracking storms" - Phew, thank God for that!
Now, what about Tassie? Can we vote on removing that instead? ;-)
Tassie is def a bit of a swell blocker! In turn Bruny Island is this 100km long bit of land just off it stopping so many places down here from getting any of that consistent SW juice too. It would be point break heaven here without it. Instead we mostly get to surf 2ft south arm closeouts and very occasional crowded points when miracle swells come by. Normally never. So I guess we all suffer to a degree haha!
If we are going to get rid of islands for more surf, let's start with something smaller. Moreton and Stradbroke can f&&k right off. Imagine the sets ups across Brisbane if they weren't there
Fark!!!! it would be over run by Brisso's bahahahaha
Its cooking!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11885957
Tarzan you safe as in the bay, but maybe not further north
Hey Craig, what is it about NZ that helps to trap easterly tracking storms?
It's presence under the right synoptic setup supports Tasman Lows and other tropical depressions/storms, cradling them between the two continents.
The mountain range also helps stall and steer these weather systems, plus the bonus funnelling and strengthening of winds through Cook Strait as the lows cross, generating good east swells.
If it weren't there I'd expect far less of these systems stalling in the East Coast's swell window, with them sliding off to the east.
Looking at similar east facing coasts across the world we rarely see lows stalling off them generating swell.
That is fascinating, cheers
Thanks Craig .
A classic example of New Zealand favouring swell production on the East Coast.
If the winds spinning around the Tasman Low weren't being squeezed by New Zealand's South Island, the fetch wouldn't be anywhere near as strong.
The South Island is effectively pushing against the inside of the low, creating those stronger winds off it's south-west.