MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal - Early Forecast
With no loss of momentum, the world tour caravan rolls south through Spain and on to Portugal. Specifically, the coastal town of Peniche and it's premiere wave, Supertubos.
As with France, the outlook is great with plenty of swell due throughout the waiting period which kicks off this Friday.
In the wake of ex-Hurricane Ophelia, we're expecting back to back storms to light up the North Atlantic, the biggest and strongest forming this Friday.
Supertubos faces west-southwest and winds are offshore from the north through to south-southeast. Come the first day of the waiting period a large mid-period W/NW swell will be spoilt by onshore south-west winds. This is offshore for the backup location, Lagido at Baleal, though a move here is very unlikely as it's mostly a last resort option. Keep an eye on Instagram as there are many other waves in Peniche that will work in this wind and swell combo.
Winds should swing around to the north from Saturday and more offshore (for Supertubos) Sunday and Monday as a large powerful W/NW tending NW groundswell fills in.
This swell will be generated by a deep and intense low forming directly north-west of Portugal on Friday, with wind speeds forecast to reach severe-gale to storm-force before the storm continues north-east across the UK.
Kieren Perrow will have some tight calls to make, as the swell will be clean yet the size is likely to overpower Supertubos on Saturday coming in at 6-8ft through the afternoon. Sunday, however, looks excellent as the swell drops away from 5-6ft surf during the morning. The direction will also head more north-west.
Monday will be smaller and back to 3ft or so with favourable morning offshore winds.
A renewal of W/NW swell is due on Tuesday from a broad storm track developing between Newfoundland and Ireland, with moderate to large-sized surf expected through most of the week. Unfortunately a couple of fronts breaking away and pushing south-east towards Portugal will bring southerly winds from Wednesday through the rest of the forecast period. This isn't ideal but each morning should be clean enough to run at least a few heats. Again, it'll be more tough calls for the Commish.
We'll provide updates on how next week's swell and wind are shaping up in the comments below.
16 day Supertubos Forecast Graph
16 day Supertubos Forecast WAMs
Comments
Isn't 6-8ft well within the range for Supertubos ?
I'd say just on the verge if there aren't any banks. It'll be a wait and see come Saturday, and with the storm being so close the swell will be that more consistent, possibly adding to the complexity of the call for KP.
Lot of Supertubos footage on the web but this is the biggest I could find. It's Dane, Brendan Gibbens, and Ando, taken from the trip when Dane got locked up.
Easy to see how perfect it's gotta be and how too much grunt or an unkind wind will roon it.
Wind, sand, swell direction ,tide and swell period all play a big role in determining an epic or weird day. Really think it has a three to four hour window.
I reckon Owen Wright will be pretty pissed off if they run it again in smaller, safer conditions. Surely it's better to be having a crack at risky 6-8 rather than clean 2-3?
Yeah he wasn't a happy chappy after his France exit.
S/SE is most definitely onshore at Supertubos.
If i use my finger compass on the picture above, S/SE is sideshore atleast and possibly protected slightly from that little southern headland. The finger compass never lies..
Cross-shore at worst, definitely not onshore.
Believe me, I've surfed there many times. SE wind blows right up the coast and is cross onshore at the break.
Agreed.
Cross/onshore at nth end
Cross/offshore at Sth end
???
At Supertubos:
S'ly is cross-onshore.
S/SE is cross-shore.
SE is cross-offshore
E/SE thru' N/NE is offshore.
The prior trend of the wind is important though. S'ly winds backing to the SE will leave a residual bump through the lineup.
The big boss comes in and puts the matter to bed. Discussion OVER!
Haha! Nah, just good to put up a map for reference.
We can debate these kinds of things all day long but you can't argue with a map and a compass.
*finger compass
Can't really argue with that but I remember checking it a bunch of times in a south east wind and always ended up having to go north of the peninsula. Maybe some sort of local effect swinging the wind in a more southerly direction along the beach?
How did you determine the wind was SE? AWS station or model forecast?
AWS station.
First occasion; we surfed it in the morning, clean, light offshore. Went for lunch and after checked the wind, SE, so decided to go back and was very much crossshore. checked it a few more times after that in "SE wind" but always had bumps and sidechop. Can't remember the location of the weather station I was using though, and observations are a distant memory so a little hazy.
Interesting. MeteoGroup seems to have a weather station at Cabo Carvoeiro (the point immediately north of Supertubos) which should be a very good indication of regional wind direction. I can't find any live data though, seems to be only model guidance.
https://www.centrometeo.pt/en/europe/portugal/weather-cabo-carvoeiro/det…
Maybe it's a bit like a NE wind at Victor Harbor? Terrible for Middleton Point and Day St but OK at Goolwa. Perhaps just enough distance to create a chop.....Baby D's and Blacks can be a bit like that in a NE wind too....
JJF will love this forecast solid with a bit of cross shore for forehand airs.
JJF for the win.
Now if you can just forecast me who is going to win that would be most appreciated. :)
Mason Ho gets the wildcard again
Spent some time there before the search came to town. Rented an apartment in town and would walk/ run to surf. Pretty much almost always offshore some where. Super fun . super, super fickle wave .
Lived there for a while a few years back. Supertubos is super exposed to wind but loves a northerly, put a bit of east in it and its bang on. South winds tear it apart. Fickle spot, but when its on its a sight to behold
Fingers crossed some epic viewing tonight...
There are some big calls going out on the forecasts .
I'm ready for some entertainment.
I've been on the tools all day.
Not often I get a chance to say that and it's fucken satisfying.
The satisfying thing is sounding like a tradie, not the work, 'cos that shit was hard. I'm re-building my deck and I spent ten hours just lifting the old wood up. Thought that bit would take two hours and the new stuff would be down by now. But no, there's 300 metres of new pine blocking the drive, tools and shit laying everywhere, we've gotta use the back door as a front door, I'm knackered and the job's not even half done.
Beer and Supertubos sounds fantastic.
Best bit about work is the hard earned beer at the end of it.
Just jokes.... Sort of.
Soon you'll be putting your feet up and looking at that deck and thinking - I built that with the sweat off my brow . And thank Christ it's over.
Building is very satisfying.
Should be a good night at Supertubos.
PS - Are you doing the deck solo ?
Doing it with the old man. 77 and swings a hammer harder than me.
Dunno if he'll show up tomorrow but.
Haha...the romance of DIY soon fades under the reality of its physicality and in general the inexperienced techniques and inadequate tools. Know the feeling...but man that first coldie tastes good!
Dawn has arrived, and the event is 'old hold'.. always ominous when there's a greatly anticipated forecast. Quick squiz of the live vision looks about 4ft (!), clean and fun though.
Is the Atlantic that unpredictable? Is it the tides?
Surfline have talked this day in the forecast up as 6-8ft building until 12ft...even on the WSL scale they've missed it by a long way.
Actually looks solid now it's on!
Boys are going to earn there bucks today.......looks heavy.
Conditions might change but right now it looks terrible super rippy heavy close out shore break with a fairly strong cross off.
Watching Bledisloe cup and the surfing. Glad to be on the lounge and not being a participant in either
Could do with an artificial reef.
Looks fucking terrible.
Some of the super technical drops these bastards pull off should be good viewing in slow mo.
Crew will be getting flogged. See Ciao's first wave !?
Could get amazing .
god I hope the Euro leg of the tour gets axed.
Any tubos will will do. Doesn't have to be super.
Anything.
Looks terrible. I'll give it halfa, if it doesn't improve I don't think I'll be able to last the distance.
Good luck selling this to non surfers.
I'm still into it as background till it turns on.
If only there was something I could ingest that makes it more interesting.
Hmmm.
How's the wannabe 80's glam rock music filling in the ad spots? Who chooses this stuff?
Yep I’m done, JW winning with a 4.9 total.
Next heat bede, kennedy, Wilkinson.
Snooze fest
By midnight East coast time there'll be a few chambers.
Don't understand with the swell they've got forecast why they would send them out on dead low tide...surely enough time to wait an hour or two?
How is it professional to ask surfers to go out in this rubbish?
The commentators are shills , no credibilty , they are struggling to make this acceptable.
Stryder would be better off just mumbling unintelligibly.Having him talking about garbage , making it smell like roses is beyond his ability.
Conspiracy theorists - this is going to be used as justification to move the whole circus to wave pools.
Starting to lurch now.
Kerr has caught some bombs. Crazy drops .
Love strider. "Wipe the plate clean and pull the sheets tight."
And now the test. Always interesting when the waves are shit and JJF heat is in the water. #WWJJD
JJF just makes tricky conditions look easy. Pretty much the same last year, started with bigger, barely makeable closeouts and JJf looked comfortable. Ended up being a quality event and we know how it ended. Hopefully more of the same.
Starting to fire now with the tide, Bourez finding the bombs. Wouldn't fancy that paddle out.
Just tuned in, Filipe just had a seven minute paddle out.LOL.
I reckon the WSL need to introduce some technology to the broadcast. Similar to the cricket. You know, that pen they use to highlight fielding positions & discuss tactics & strategy. I reckon it could work in the lineup to help the average punter get involved & understand the set up . Otherwise they’re pretty much screwed from a non surfer perspective.......
Not a fan of drones but they add a cool perspective of the line up, angle of swell to land etc. Not sure non surfers would ever really understand what was going on, at least with cricket many non fans have whacked a ball around so get the idea.
Pretty sure Pottz had a magic screen pen at one point
Mason should be a permanent fixture on the tour regardless of ranking, surfing aside he's a breath of fresh air from the media prepped crew.
Cant figure out the scoring ,as per usual,example Bourez gets a 8.5 for a nice wave but dosen't get fully pitted (and double claims it) and Jack Freestone gets a hell long complex barrel and gets a 9,half a point difference........sorry but Jacks was way better imo.